I Fund Leads TSP Returns

[Guest]

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Retirement & Financial Planning Report

The international stock (I) fund led the Thrift Savings
Plan funds both in terms of monthly returns in September
and in 12-month returns, posting a 3.68 percent gain last
month for a 12-month return of 25.74 percent. The small-
and mid-capitalization U.S. stock (S) fund gained 0.83
percent for a 22.11 percent 12-month return, while the
large company U.S. stock (C) fund was up 0.84 percent for
a 12.27 percent 12-month gain. The government securities
(G) fund rose 0.36 percent in September for a 4.35 percent
12-month gain while the bond (F) fund lost 1.03 percent
for a 2.81 percent 12-month gain. The returns in September
on the new lifecycle (L) funds were: Income, 0.52; 2010,
0.94; 2020, 1.06; 2030, 1.17, 2040, 1.35.

 

[Sr]

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In these fast and ever changing markts, 12 month return figures are misleading. It is enough to note average retail stock mutual fund was up 4.7% YTD while NONE of the TSP index funds has even matched it.

 

[Rolo]

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As of Oct 7th, I Fund :}6.91%, S Fund :}4.28%, G Fund :}3.37% with zero risk.

Category YTD averages range from :{2% to :}38%, mostly hovering, as you say, ~4-5%.

Category 1-year averages range from :{9% to :}62%,averaging ~20%.

http://news.morningstar.com/fundReturns/CategoryReturns.html



I don't care for index funds, but this does help with having the proper perspective and we can see that they aren't that bad in iffy/horizontal markets. Also note that average mutual funds are just that: average.You have tocompare TSP funds 1-year with YOUR mutual fund holding's 1-year andyou better be sureyou're beating the index!

 

[Birchtree]

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Sr,

I wish for you to find happiness in the TSP. There is plenty of potential that is available to you to perhaps prosper but you have to be proactive. You may need other options to fill certain investment gaps. I have other accounts to help me diversify my holdings - I use the TSP to maintain a 100% position in the large cap arena - I use my wife's FRS account (State) to load up on an international fund and my outside account helps me build income via dividends and I utilize dollar cost averaging of my assets as much as possible. In the FRS account I am only allowed to round trip every 30 days - but that suits my style. I don't pistol shoot the short term and try to stay focused on the long term direction. Both the I fund and the S fund have done well - but that was yesterday- I'm waiting on tomorrow. I'm sure there is more opportunity for you here than you currently realize. Take care.

Dennis

 

[rokid]

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Rolo wrote:

You have tocompare TSP funds 1-year with YOUR mutual fund holding's 1-year andyou better be sureyou're beating the index!

You also need to compare apples to apples. You can't compare the return from a small/value or emerging market fund to the C Fund.The small/value and emerging market funds are much riskier. The greater the risk the higher the potential return.

 

[Sr]

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Rolo wrote:

As of Oct 7th, I Fund :}6.91%, S Fund :}4.28%, G Fund :}3.37% with zero risk.

Category YTD averages range from :{2% to :}38%, mostly hovering, as you say, ~4-5%.

Category 1-year averages range from :{9% to :}62%,averaging ~20%.

http://news.morningstar.com/fundReturns/CategoryReturns.html



I don't care for index funds, but this does help with having the proper perspective and we can see that they aren't that bad in iffy/horizontal markets. Also note that average mutual funds are just that: average.You have tocompare TSP funds 1-year with YOUR mutual fund holding's 1-year andyou better be sureyou're beating the index!

You are correct about perspective. I was more lucky with my IRA holdings outside TSP. YTD return to 9/30/2005 was PRSGX (5.69), FFNOX(3.10),FSELX(11.99),FBIOX(3.52),FSAGX(19.79),FSESX(50.29),FLATX(44.96),FNMIX(9.23)

 

[Rolo]

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rokid wrote:

You also need to compare apples to apples.

I don't agree. I look at the whole basket, compare all the fruits and find the best ones.

rokid wrote:

You can't compare the return from a small/value or emerging market fund to the C Fund.

Yes I will since I have access to both.

rokid wrote:

The greater the risk the higher the potential return.

Totally agree. That is why I/we who do not go along with 'diversify' must always keep ourselves in check and ensure we are outperforming a diversified portfolio; otherwise, what's the point?



I'm not saying you are wrong, I am saying that there are two diametrically opposed styles. For Sr and me, index funds end up being a bit of a 'dead weight'. My mutual funds consistently outperform my not-too-shabby TSP returns by10% to 20%. For this reason, 1. I will continue to use my style since it works, and 2. I will not be maxing TSP contributions to $15K but will instead put about 10 of that 15K into a regular brokerage account.

 

[rokid]

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Rolo wrote:

I'm not saying you are wrong, I am saying that there are two diametrically opposed styles.

Yeah, we can agree to disagree. Whatever works.

However, I'll continue to use my approach, i.e.construct a portfolio that delivers the optimal return for the level of risk I'm willing to bear.Since, for the most part, I can do that with the TSP funds,save on taxes, and watch myaccount grow tax free, I'm satisfied.

Incidentally,are you wearing contactsor did you get Lasik?Was that picture taken when you got your last brokerage statement?

 

[Rolo]

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rokid wrote:

Yeah, we can agree to disagree. Whatever works.

Oh, no, I hate that "agree to disagree" crap. I don't agree with you...but because of my style...I think it is better...without implying that you are fundamentally wrong in some way.

rokid wrote:

Incidentally,are you wearing contactsor did you get Lasik?Was that picture taken when you got your last brokerage statement?

ROFLMAO!!!

 

[rokid]

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Rolo wrote:

My mutual funds consistently outperform my not-too-shabby TSP returns by10% to 20%.

If I may ask, which external mutual funds do you invest inand how do you go about selecting them?Do you consider both risk and return or just return? Do you try to diversify across asset classes?

Incidentally, I checked out Sr'sPRSGX. A nice emerging market bond fund.

 

[Rolo]

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All my funds are listed in my account talk.

I keep about 1/3 of my whole portfolio as my "core" funds (RSPFX, RSVAX,OSMCX, QSCCX).

The other 2/3 is generally split between two or three sectors; right now, Precious Metals/Gold/Natural Resources and Emerging Markets. Within those sectors, I usually have 2 or 3 funds covering it. All funds are in the top 30% of their category 1-year return and top 10% of 3-year returns....that way I know I'm getting established quality. That's the closest I get to mitigating risk.

I don't care about risk; I only care about return...because...that's the point in actively "yield chasing". Analysing risk/Efficient Frontieris for buy-and-hold.

I listen to what the market climate is...learn about market cycles...and most importantly, see which sectors are rising and falling. I use IBD and MorningStar. I compare 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year returns of sectors and funds to see who is rising and who is falling. So far, so good....so WHAT! heh...I just keep on top of it about monthly or so.

 

[Spaf]

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Alternate investment styles

TSP is a good savings program. However, however, MHO: a participant should monitor his/her funds and make changes as necessary. This could be buy and hold, position/swing reallocation. What ever someone is comfortable with, if the strategy does not produce, then the strategy needs to be changed. If the strategy works, fine. But, do not go with a strategy that one looses sleep over.

There are many alternate investment options.

Some of us have chosen mutuals, ETF's, and etc.

The I-fund is a good fund, it is a index fund of foreign markets. But it is not a high performance fund. EFA has produced YTD% of 6.09 as a ETF. and is ranked (today) about #29 from the top.

Mention was made of EEM, another ETF in emerging markets. It is ranked (today) #10 with a YTD% of 20.19



This board is like the state fair. You can sort of get a taste of everything, or at least look at it. I've tried the fried dill pickles---na not my style. But I do like BBQ, Beer, Turkey legs, More Beer. Indian Taco and my wife (cause she's driving)!

Rgds! Spaf

 

[Rolo]

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Spaf wrote:

Indian Taco and my wife

heeeh

[line]

I agree...everyone needs to review his portfolio at least annually, but probably quarterly. Weekly if you have stocks.

What do you use to check rankings, Spaf?

 

[Spaf]

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Rolo wrote:

What do you use to check rankings, Spaf?

I keep a computer log of about 30 or so selected ETFs, divided into Bonds, Total Market Funds, Sector Funds and International (1). These are subdivided by V:value, I:index, and G:growth according to their profile at Yahoo. Once charted I track their performance at Barchart.com: YTD%, recent%, chart, and opinion.

Holding mainly in MSCI Brazil F [EWZ] with some diversity in utilities, small caps and the S&P.

Have been buying in as the market has been declining, same with TSP. My performance looks like it is declining, which it is, but my positions are being set up for the advance, when ever it comes [fingers crossed].

(1) ETF Trader, A service of MarketWatch by Jim Lowell.

Rgds Spaf

 

[rokid]

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Rolo,

Thanks.