How do you deal with the 2 transactions/mo?

[Birchtree]

I never worry about the 2 IFTs - buy and hold is my religion. In an environment where daily returns resemble traditional monthly returns, volatility creates tremendous fear - I ignore the fear and panic around me. It's time to show some greed when the world seems to be falling apart - use this opportunity to accumulate the high quality C fund and grow your wealth over time.

 

[ATCJeff]

I try to enter the month already invested in the stock funds. This way I can exit and re-enter before the month is over. I like this procedure over the enter during the month only to exit prior to the end of the month.

There's really no difference. However, one month I exited early and it killed me to wait until the next month.

 

[amoeba]

I never worry about the 2 IFTs - buy and hold is my religion. In an environment where daily returns resemble traditional monthly returns, volatility creates tremendous fear - I ignore the fear and panic around me. It's time to show some greed when the world seems to be falling apart - use this opportunity to accumulate the high quality C fund and grow your wealth over time.

Ummm, yahhh - volatility and fear are consequences of declining earnings, unemployment and hence, stock prices, not the other way round. Growing wealth on C-fund with buy-and-hold? Not right now, thank you.


Go ahead, risk another 25% loss in 2008 (i.e., S&P at 700 next december) on top of the 40% for 2008. I'll be patient.

There is this super-optimism that somehow the Fed or Congress is going to print money into oblivion and prevent the obvious recession from going through the end of next year; that's the prevailing emotion - I choose not to participate in it.

 

[Birchtree]

The slope of the current price decline is unprecedented over the past 80+ years, challenged only by the final several months prior to the 1932 price lows. Be ready for the momentous lift.

 

[amoeba]

The slope of the current price decline is unprecedented over the past 80+ years, challenged only by the final several months prior to the 1932 price lows. Be ready for the momentous lift.

guess you weren't around in October 9-17, 1987; that drop was alot faster than this one, and for alot less reason - don't remember no 35% auto declines, million plus foreclosures, million job losses, around then.

Will be interesting to see what happens next March, when auto companies run out of money, a second time. Will be interesting to see what the holiday retail sales are. Will be interesting to see what the commercial real estate situation is like. And Bernanke and Hanky won't be around to build house of cards economies with bailout x 1000.

 

[Birchtree]

Oh, I remember 1987 very well and the 22% drop - we recently had a 47% drop in the Dow. I took a day off from work the next day and sat waiting it out with both thumbs on the triggers - but gladly I held off and continued with the rebound. I was sitting in the seat of a quad 50.

 

[JOVARN]

Quad 50 a "blast from the past" Last time I heard that was 1972 FSB Happy TaynNinh

 

[ATCJeff]

guess you weren't around in October 9-17, 1987; that drop was alot faster than this one, and for alot less reason - don't remember no 35% auto declines, million plus foreclosures, million job losses, around then.

Will be interesting to see what happens next March, when auto companies run out of money, a second time. Will be interesting to see what the holiday retail sales are. Will be interesting to see what the commercial real estate situation is like. And Bernanke and Hanky won't be around to build house of cards economies with bailout x 1000.

I'm looking for re-test of the lows or down further after the 1st. I'll be firmly planted on the lilly pad come January 1st!:worried:

 

[amoeba]

Oh, I remember 1987 very well and the 22% drop - we recently had a 47% drop in the Dow. I took a day off from work the next day and sat waiting it out with both thumbs on the triggers - but gladly I held off and continued with the rebound. I was sitting in the seat of a quad 50.

We don't have a dow in the tsp. We have an S&P 500. The major drop in 1987 occurred in the business days between October 13 and October 19, a drop from 224 to 314, or about 29%.

By contrast, the major drop in 2008 occcurred between October 1 and October 10, a slightly longer period, from 1161 to 899, or about 23%.

So this drop IS NOT, as you implied, "unprecendented" in 80+ years. It was a little over 20 years ago, and the drop was larger, and steeper, and for less reason.

 

[Birchtree]

If you subtract 80 years from 2008 - you get 1928 - that was my reference. I should have given a better explanation.

 

[Larry Braaten]

I have a lot to learn and have been reading much of what is written in this WEB site. There are trends to look at "Coppock Curve", historical charts and news. Overall I think we are in for some tough times - consumer credit very high, unemployment increasing, banks and investment companies suffering, auto companies, etc. Maybe I am too pessimistic, but it is hard for me to be in any risky funds for long. I have only recently (last 5 months) started using my 2 moves a month. With the volatility in the market I believe there are going to be ups and downs regardless of a bear or bull market. My strategy: buy after a series of bad days, don't get greedy, and don't stay in too long. For someone with my talent (or lack there of), only having 2 IFTs a month is probably a good thing. The bottom line is you need to be able to sleep at night.

 

[hessian]

Larry,
See link below, as it pretty much sums up my opinion of the 2T/mo Rule. Consider how others close to retirement are being affected...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=198067&postcount=4745

 

[dpmp]

TSP is the most pathetic system there is mainly because you can't get a same day transfer after 1200 hrs ET, and no short-fund. I have stayed in G (80%) and F (20%) for a while and not looking back.

This market fluctuates so much, 2 trades/month is not enough to "play" with the short rally. Mid-term and long-term view is negative, meaning you can't win if hold it longer than 2 weeks unless your move is at the bottom which you can't get at intra-day low.

If the government wants TSP participants to fully invest, in both advancing and declining market, TSP board needs to bring on the short funds and allow late day transfer (at least before 1600 hrs local time). Otherwise, stay out of stock funds until S&P drop to 600, and that is one of the more optimistic view. My opinion? S&P at 150. Call me crazy if you want. I've been out since Dec 2007 with a few occasions in and outs, very little loss.

 

[Frixxxx]

.....
If the government wants TSP participants to fully invest, in both advancing and declining market, TSP board needs to bring on the short funds and allow late day transfer (at least before 1600 hrs local time). Otherwise, stay out of stock funds until S&P drop to 600, and that is one of the more optimistic view. My opinion? S&P at 150. Call me crazy if you want. I've been out since Dec 2007 with a few occasions in and outs, very little loss.

Ok, you're crazy.:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

TSP is designed as a deferred compensation plan that is fiduciary oriented. The majority of members are basically buy and holders like myself. The ease of payroll contributions makes for easy investing to become part of a retirement program and when a member may have up to 30 years to contribute there is really no need to be a trader. Now I know many on the MB will disgree with my position and that's fine. I have no problem with 2 IFTs per month. I've given back a lot of money through devaluation this last year but I'm confident I'll be made whole over the next year - been there and done that before. I simply chock it up to life's experience.

 

[teknobucks]

TSP is designed as a deferred compensation plan that is fiduciary oriented. The majority of members are basically buy and holders like myself. The ease of payroll contributions makes for easy investing to become part of a retirement program and when a member may have up to 30 years to contribute there is really no need to be a trader. Now I know many on the MB will disgree with my position and that's fine. I have no problem with 2 IFTs per month. I've given back a lot of money through devaluation this last year but I'm confident I'll be made whole over the next year - been there and done that before. I simply chock it up to life's experience.

sent ya a PM BT

hey guys with this 2 or 3 trades a month here...it's better 2 be out wishing u were in than in wishing u were out right now

 

[nnuut]

Nice to hear form you TEKNO, that is pretty good advise considering the Market is nnuuts!!

 

[teknobucks]

Nice to hear form you TEKNO, that is pretty good advise considering the Market is nnuuts!!

worst is ahead bro

take care all

tekno over and out

 

[dpmp]

It would be nice if they allow rolling over the unused transactions. :nuts:

Nicer if I can sell it.