How do you deal with the 2 transactions/mo?

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K

Kentucky

Member
Can you guys give me some advise/system as to how to deal with the limits to 2 trades per month.

It has messed me up completely. I think things are going to turn around, I get back into the stock market, then things don't work as planned and I get back out ... and then I am locked for the month.

That is what happened to me last month. I was expecting an election bounce and got back in the first trading day of November. The election bounce lasted 1 day (well, it actually lasted 2 days, but since my transaction did not post till the end of the day I missed the first day.) Then the accompanying drop caused me to get back out using my 2 transactions and not allowing me to get back in last week for the gain.

Any advise as to how to time the market to optimize 2 trades per month?
 
Which ever fund (G, F, C, S or I) did better last month...thats the one you use this month.
 
Kentucky said:
Can you guys give me some advise/system as to how to deal with the limits to 2 trades per month.

It has messed me up completely. I think things are going to turn around, I get back into the stock market, then things don't work as planned and I get back out ... and then I am locked for the month.

That is what happened to me last month. I was expecting an election bounce and got back in the first trading day of November. The election bounce lasted 1 day (well, it actually lasted 2 days, but since my transaction did not post till the end of the day I missed the first day.) Then the accompanying drop caused me to get back out using my 2 transactions and not allowing me to get back in last week for the gain.

Any advise as to how to time the market to optimize 2 trades per month?
Click to expand...

Everyone on this board probably has at least a slightly different method. Poolman obviously has had the best this year. He seems to spend ALOT of time analysing and thinking about the market, fundamentally primarily, and technically (charts and video clips of other 'technicians').
 
FUTURESTRADER said:
Everyone on this board probably has at least a slightly different method. Poolman obviously has had the best this year. He seems to spend ALOT of time analysing and thinking about the market, fundamentally primarily, and technically (charts and video clips of other 'technicians').
Click to expand...

Thanks Futurestrader,

You are right. The market is now my primary job. I know all good things must come to an end but this is where I am at now.

The way I look at 2 new IFT's for the month is.

Big Picture. When do you think you can make the most money in the month.

but you also have to look at what the market is doing relative to where it was just at.

I am just giving the Big picture on where my head is at.

I wanted 5% last month but only got 2%.
 
And where the market is "at" as of this morning was ~19% above the 52-week low close - it's up to you to decide if this is the time to put money in (I don't). The rationale I see is there was no reason for the market to go up in the first place, everything I saw pointed to declining consumption of large and small ticket items; a bunch of employers announcing layoffs - some going out of business - others being bailed out; a whole lot of vacancy signs on the street; 2 million subprime loan resets in 2009 (twice 2008); false hope (new president - and what can he do?); new terrorism (wonder where the market would go if that happened here?); rising unemployment; a federal reserve chairman and treasury secretary in disarray - just throwing one "quick fix" idea after another (is that a "plan"?). You tell me when things look good.

I've been playing with using a portion of my TSP (~10-30%) to test out my moves (leaving the remainder in G); looking at the intermediate term running averages; and when I make a move - I've been averaging in. And, oh, I forgot - watching the tracker to see what "poolman" is doing.

The best I've been able to do so far is cut losses; a day earlier or later, here or there, I would have done better.
 
poolman said:
Thanks Futurestrader,

You are right. The market is now my primary job.

I wanted 5% last month but only got 2%.
Click to expand...


Poolman:

If you got a 2% return last month, that is great. :D How did you do it? What are your investment strategies? How do you decide when to buy and when to sell given the 2 trade per month limit? :confused:

I need your help and assistance. :blink:
 
Kentucky said:
Poolman:

If you got a 2% return last month, that is great. :D How did you do it? What are your investment strategies? How do you decide when to buy and when to sell given the 2 trade per month limit? :confused:

I need your help and assistance. :blink:
Click to expand...

Thanks Kentucky,

In a short answer, I try to buy when the market's look very bad relative to it's trading range. I also only go in 50%/90% of the time.

Last month I went in 50% and the range was violated. I rode the market down for the next 3 day's. I then increased my percentage from 50% to 80% also knowing it was Thanksgiving week and Sentiment would get better. That is how I got my 2%. It was a very scary ride. I went from 17% down to 8% and ended at 19%. If I would have known it would have been like that I would not have done it.

It appears that we could be setting up to test the Lowe's again.

The market's will not always do what you think. They don't want you to figure them out. I hope this helps.

I'm also trying to wake up...:)
 
poolman said:
It appears that we could be setting up to test the Lowe's again.

The market's will not always do what you think. They don't want you to figure them out. I hope this helps....:)
Click to expand...


Yeah, I can't figure it out, that is for sure! After Monday's big drop, then yesterday's increase I was thinking that maybe we were gonna be up again for a few days. But now, futures are down again and the headline on money.cnn.com is "Nightmare on Wall Street Continues ... Stocks set to tumble".

Oh well ....

Poolman, what's your thoughts?
 
Kentucky said:
Yeah, I can't figure it out, that is for sure! After Monday's big drop, then yesterday's increase I was thinking that maybe we were gonna be up again for a few days. But now, futures are down again and the headline on money.cnn.com is "Nightmare on Wall Street Continues ... Stocks set to tumble".

Oh well ....

Poolman, what's your thoughts?
Click to expand...


I think it's time to be patient. Yesterday ended being a decent up day. Look where the futures are today. Not that this is how the day will end.

It's a whipsaw type of market. Definately not easy. We are in a Trading range right now on the $SPX of 818 and 896. If we break 818 it's a long way down to 741.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SPX
 
poolman said:
I think it's time to be patient. Yesterday ended being a decent up day. Look where the futures are today. Not that this is how the day will end.

It's a whipsaw type of market. Definately not easy. We are in a Trading range right now on the $SPX of 818 and 896. If we break 818 it's a long way down to 741.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SPX
Click to expand...

Definitely a long way down, the numbers today weren't spectacular but we are still chasing the great equalizer. When the emotions of the investor get in synch with the economy, that will start the beginning of the beginning to climb out of this mess.

Side Note: Hope you find what you are looking for poolman, I know it is tough out there.....I got my fingers crossed for ya!:cool:
 
Frixxxx said:
Definitely a long way down, the numbers today weren't spectacular but we are still chasing the great equalizer. When the emotions of the investor get in synch with the economy, that will start the beginning of the beginning to climb out of this mess.

Side Note: Hope you find what you are looking for poolman, I know it is tough out there.....I got my fingers crossed for ya!:cool:
Click to expand...


Thanks Frixxxx
 
Read first, I know nothing. Do NOT listen to me. Buy on fear sell on greed. Look the market is all over the place, recently we have been conditioned to think little of a 200 point move, it happens everyday now seemingly. Also you have to make up your mind before noon and the market could do a 180 so there is alot of guessing. I have 100% in G-fund (since March) but always purchase my standard payroll stuff in an even split C/S/I and 2020 as I'm quite the gambler. In the spring I played the up and down wave action and have started to try again but as you point out with only two trades it sucks now. In October I threw caution to the wind (bad choice that time) saw a big drop went 100% into C/S/I and 2020 25% each, market went down next day, BANG I'm down like $7,000 bucks. Market shoots back up and I'm out of there like a wounded rabbit with $300 profit and an ulcer. Used my 2 trades up swear I will re-think this. November I'm a bit more careful (still clueless) market drops and I buy in at 11% on 11/12 and watch but no real action. Then another big drop seem to be going on 11/19 so I go in again, up to 40% (11/20 would have been better but who knows these things, I'm down a bit but cool) so I've used my 2 moves but I can still pull back to the G-ster figure we should get that Thanksgiving Rally. Yes, things are hot on 11/25 so I take the money and run, not a big winner but over 2 grand. If I was in a day later out a day later in deeper too, I would have been a bigger winner but this is ALL gambling, no one seems to have any idea really what the market will do. Monday (12/1) when we had the big sell off I "almost" bought but just before noon the trend was down but it didn't appear we were headed WAY down and being day one I did not pull the trigger. Watched this weeks rebound from the saftey of the G-fund, again remember no one knows what will happen but hind sight is 20/20. Today (Friday 12/5) I expected it to be down and was going to buy in I was thinking a 20% but before noon it was down ONLY 200 points, my guess in this market then was it would not crash down and I decided to do nothing, luck was with me as the market went up. Remember to make money, buy low sell high. So I'm looking for a day where I "think" the Dow will (tank) touch below 8,100 (last month it was 8,500) and put my toe in another drop to the upper 7,700 range I'm in maybe up to my butt. If I'm lucky and I see a spike up I'm 100% out and back to the G-ster. So now I'm just watching and hoping to set up a little Christmas miracle with my 2 trades. Again, it's luck with my only plan to buy on fear and sell on greed, problem is I'm scared and greedy.
 
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