Hold on or sell, but don't buy

2/07/13

To Discuss This Market Commentary: Click HereStocks were able to climb back from a weak open yesterday to turn the day, and the charts, into a positive. The Dow, down about 65-points at one point, closed higher by 7-points.
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[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 155"]
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[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0050%[/TD]
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[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.16%[/TD]
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[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.07%[/TD]
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[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.40%[/TD]
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[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.07%[/TD]
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This will be a quick update as there is very little new to report.

The S&P 500 remained in the narrow rising trading channel yet another day. The reversal day formation came on mediocre volume - not exactly a major reversal. It's starting to look like a flat top, which is normally negative, but the last flat top in January broke to the upside.

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Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The looming resistance is still right there on the longer-term so the risk / reward seems to favor a little bit of defense here.

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Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The indicators are not a major factor for me right now. They are mixed with slight oversold readings and sentiment that varies depending where you look. The charts are telling the story and the story is, stocks are in an uptrend, there's resistance overhead, and the easy money may have been made.

If you're in stocks now the two options, holding until the trend breaks or selling and taking profits, sound reasonable depending on your investment philosophy.

If you're not in stocks, it seems reasonable to believe you will get a better opportunity to buy down the road.

Administrative Note: RevShark is offering a free trial to his TSP Timing Service this week . Click here for some basic info on RevShark's service... or click here for information on how to gain access.

Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
 
What does smart/dumb money have to say about this? What's the indicator? Something to know Thanks!
 
The smart / dumb money indicators are mixed right now, like so many indicators. the put/call ratios show the smart money more bullish, while the smart money in sentimentrader.com's confidence indicators shows them being more bearish. sentimentrader.com's indicator is a compilation of many indicators so I'm leaning toward that one right now, despite the put/call ratio being one of my favorite indicators.
 
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