HO HUM

[Wheels]

imported post

One other note about January. I saw on CNBC the other morning that while an up January does signal an up year 87% of the time, a down January signals a down year only 47% of the time. I forget how many years they looked back but it was a bunch.

Dave

 

[Guest]

imported post

Down only 47% of the time???

Do you really want to put your nest egg at risk on 47% odds???

Go to Vegas and play video poker...at least you will have more fun losing your money.

Good luck out there.

MT

 

[Show-me]

imported post

saraho wrote:

Show-me wrote:

I checked the TSP site and since 1988 we have had 6down Jan. in the C Fund with the following Feb. being 3up and 3 down.

Just another FYI.

1990 - January down 6.9%, February up 0.9%

1992 - January down 2.0%, February up 1.0%

2000 - January down 5.1%, February down 2.0%

2002 - January down 1.6%, February down 2.1%

2003 - January down 2.7%, February down 1.7%

2005 - January down 2.4%,February ???

(February has been down in 5 of the past 6 years) FYI

1988 I didn't read the fine print at the bottom of the page. C Fund inception was 29th of January, 1988. I'm not challenging anyone here just thought it was interesting.

 

[Mike]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

Down only 47% of the time???

Do you really want to put your nest egg at risk on 47% odds???

Go to Vegas and play video poker...at least you will have more fun losing your money.

Good luck out there.

MT

There's no such thing as a sure thing in the market. Even with 87% odds, that still translates into over a 1 in 10 chance that the market will end the year flat or down. It all boils down to risk tolerance - and people who can't tolerate it will make the least money over their lives.

 

[Guest]

imported post

Risk reward:

50/50 is just not good enough.
MT

 

[pyriel]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

Risk reward:

50/50 is just not good enough.
MT

I will have to agree with MT on this but only on the issue of 50/50 chance not being good enough. However, I'd like to think that this feb is different from last years feb which is different from previous years feb. I guess what I am getting at is that it is up to us in the present to make and intelligent deductions on where the market will be. MT, all they are doing is analyzing previous market and I am sure that they will add current events before they make their decisions.

Pyriel

MT, ps... Notice the caps lock? Using two hands now...

 

[Guest]

imported post

Mike wrote:

There's no such thing as a sure thing in the market. Even with 87% odds, that still translates into over a 1 in 10 chance that the market will end the year flat or down. It all boils down to risk tolerance - and people who can't tolerate it will make the least money over their lives.

People with the least tolerance for risk may make the least money ...or the most.