Hello from Japan!

cojo1988

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Hello. My name is Cody and I have started to get more involed in the management of my TSP account. I am 24 years old, currently stationed in Japan, been in the Navy for 7 years and have been contributing about 10% of my pay to the TSP the whole time. I started off mostly with contributions to the G fund because I didnt really know what I was doing (I still dont, really). After reading many articles, index performance charts, fund performance history charts, and other educating materials, I decided to make an IFT in hopes to get bigger returns. Right now my account distribution is: G-20% F-10% C-20% S-30% I-20% My current contributions are set up the same as my distribution. I don't plan on doing too many account moves (due to the IFT limit and my overwhelming ignorance for the overall equities/fixed-fund market) unless we have a repeat of 2008 and I want to move it all to the G fund. For a 24 year old who plans on retiring from the armed forces after 20 years of service, how does this account distribution/contribution sound to you guys? Please keep in mind that I have almost no experience in the market and I'm pretty much teaching myself by reading on this website as well as many others. I am single and don't really have any responsibilities and I just made E-6 so I will be upping my contributions to about 20-25% in the near future. Thank you in advance for your suggestions.

Cody Lucero
 
Welcome, Cody. Thank you for your service.

There are a ton of resources here to help you. These forums are a great place to read, read, read. There are many different angles...perma-bulls, perma-bears, technical analysis folks, and many schemes like the Last Month's Best Fund, etc, and of course, the premium services. Don't forget to read the update posted by Tom on the front page each day. One thing you might try...get involved in the tracker and do what the leaders do. Whatever your comfortable with...I hope you achieve great gains.
 
Welcome to the Forum Cody, right now the market is nnuuts and doesn't know what is good and what is bad, loco. Be careful, look for an uptrend.
Best of luck
Norman
 
Thank you all for the warm welcome! Mrbowl, where on the front page would I find update that Tom posts? I registered with the tracker and have been reading threads about members' accounts but they all sound like jibberish to me. I will continue to read around this forum and hope that everything starts making sense. jpcavin, I am from Tyler, Texas but I've lived pretty much everywhere (including Pensacola for about 6 months). nnuut, thanks for the heads up. After reading some of the member's acount talk threads, I am tempted to move back to the G fund but if I do I won't be able to move back to the equities until next month. I'll stay vigilant.
 
I lived in Austin for 3 years. I still have a house there. Got a couple of friends in Tyler too.:)
 
Thank you all for the warm welcome! Mrbowl, where on the front page would I find update that Tom posts?

Welcome Cojo! Below is a screen shot of the TSP Home Page. Tom's daily market commentary is circled in RED. The Auto Tracker (circled in GREEN) is another place I love to visit.
View attachment 24926

Here is a screen shot of some of the places I like to visit when I want to get a "heads up" on what people are doing and how well they are performing.
 
Hi Cody - I'm in Japan too. Okinawa, to be more specific. I imagine you're probably at Yokosuka or Sasebo. Japan is a good place to be when you're single and 24. ;) Have fun while you're here.

As for your TSP, right now you have 70% in the stock market. That's a good aggressive amount. If I were in your position, I might even have it all in stocks. I've been using this site to learn how to time the market for the last two and a half years, and I'm now facing the hard realization that it's not as easy as it seems it should be. Most of us here on this site try to maximize our profits via trades, but it's worth getting the opposite perspective from a few people like Birchtree. Make sure to browse his account thread from time to time.

Good luck!

Sensei
 
stasel, Thank you very much for your much needed assistance. I was actually browsing through the AutoTracker's Top 10 this month earlier today and noticed that most people put 100% of their distribution into 1 index. I also noticed in your signature, you say you have yours 100% in the "I" fund. I have mine staggered in different funds, mostly because I currently lack the ability to make an educated change, although I am attempting to fix my ignorance with this site and many others. Anyways, I was wondering if I could get a little explanation as to why you are currently invested in the "I" fund? Is it because of something you heard on the news about the international market or maybe some research that you have done? I'm not (at all) questioning your decision, only trying to get more information on how to make a well thought out IFT to the best possible fund. I understand what indexes each fund mirrors, just a little confused on research methods (sorry but im a total noob). Thank you very much in advance for your response.
 
Sensei,

I am actually stationed in Atsugi, however I was previously stationed in Yokosuka for a couple years. And yes, you are absolutely right, single, 24, living in Japan is like a dream come true lol. In fact, I just recently had too much fun and ended up getting in a bit of trouble over the SOFA curfew that is currently in effect. Needless to say I'm now in a position where I will be putting away a lot of money into my TSP account :p

The reason why I have my account distributed so aggressively is because the little bit of research I have done has suggested that since I am young and already saving for retirement, I can afford to take the risk of the aggressive approach. Also, I look back at the total annual returns of the different funds and think to myself "why have I had my money in the G fund for the past 7 years making 1% increases when I could have had it in the other equity funds pulling upwards of 10-15%?". So here I am now.

Also, my current goal here is not to time the market on a bi-monthly basis and make transfers accordingly, but more along the lines of finding a distribution that I can get the most returns out of. I know this sounds so cliche especially coming from a newb but like I have said before, I am brand new to the game so as my knowledge increases, I believe my goals will change and I will probably become more active with the transfers. For now I will shove as much information into my brain as can fit. Thank you for your response.
 
"Kudo's" to you for doing the most important things:

1. You are saving for retirement
2. You are putting away 10% of your income
3. You are in the stock market
4. You are interested in learning more about the markets and in managing your money

I don't know that it is really important as to the % you invest in each of the C, S, & I funds. Some in each of these funds will probably serve you well, due to your age, and the number of years you have available to work and to contribute to your 401K . Since we are in a bull market, and you are young, being 100% in the market would not be considered a bad risk.

Over the past 10 years all 3 of these funds has had an average return of between 7% -11%, even with the horrible year in 2008. It has been my experience that in a bull market, they all do well. In a bear market, I tend to be in some combination of G & F.

stasel, Thank you very much for your much needed assistance. I was actually browsing through the AutoTracker's Top 10 this month earlier today and noticed that most people put 100% of their distribution into 1 index. I also noticed in your signature, you say you have yours 100% in the "I" fund. I have mine staggered in different funds, mostly because I currently lack the ability to make an educated change, although I am attempting to fix my ignorance with this site and many others. Anyways, I was wondering if I could get a little explanation as to why you are currently invested in the "I" fund? Is it because of something you heard on the news about the international market or maybe some research that you have done? I'm not (at all) questioning your decision, only trying to get more information on how to make a well thought out IFT to the best possible fund. I understand what indexes each fund mirrors, just a little confused on research methods (sorry but im a total noob). Thank you very much in advance for your response.

Just a point of clarification -- I am in the "S" fund. My reasons for being in the "S" fund vs the "I" fund, have to do with the lagging recovery in Europe and the strength of the US dollar, and our inability to do more than 2 trades/month. In general, a strong US dollar will mitigate gains in the international markets. Here's an example of how the strength of the US dollar affects international funds.

Strong Currency Example
As of the beginning of 2011, the U.S. dollar has been weak against most of the world currencies. An example showing the effect or a weak dollar can be reversed to indicate the effects of a strong dollar. In 2009, the Brazilian stock market -- BOVESPA -- gained 69.7 percent in terms of the Brazilian currency -- the Real. When the results are converted to the dollar, which weakened over 2009, U.S. investors saw a total return from the Brazilian stock market of 126 percent. The portion of the gain to U.S. investors due to a weak dollar was over 50 percent. If the trend between the dollar and Real reversed, U.S. investors could see their investments drop in dollar terms, even if the Brazilian stock market shows gains. Read more: How Does a Strong Dollar Affect International Mutual Funds? | eHow

I have been in the "S" fund all year (with the exception of one week in May). The decision to get out of the market in May, as it turns out, was a mistake -- an "emotional" decision. I keep reading and feel that we are due for a correction (10%) and I would like to avoid this if I can. But what I have learned is that it is very hard to do this with only 2 IFT's/month.

Keep reading, keep asking questions. There's a lot of talent/experience here at TSP talk.

Best of luck!
 
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sstasel,

Thank you very much for your response. It was very informative. I apologize for my mistake in your fund distribution. It's little newb ones like that that are going to create huge losses for me in the future so I better be careful lol.

Your explanation about the dollar's strength governing the performance of international markets was very in detail and I am going to visit the link that you included after I am finished with this reply. Thank you for that.

Another question I have... (and anyone is encouraged to answer)
Let's say something happened again like back in 2008...You say you will move it all to the G and F funds. When will you ultimately make the decision? Will it take a few days or weeks for the market to become bearish, or could it happen overnight? Will you start seeing on the news that huge corporations are falling into bankruptcy? I'm just trying to paint myself a picture of when would be a good time to play it safe. It looks like the past few days have seen some losses in each stock funds and I am wondering if it would already be a time to play it safe. I'm not going to give into temptation though because I just started managing and if I constantly threw it into the G when I sensed a little losses, I would never actually make any returns and would probably lose more than I would if I just left it there. Also, I understand that the market fluctuates constantly and will not just steadily rise especially in such a short amount of time. Again, sorry for the newb questions, I am building a foundation of knowledge that I can work my way up from. Thank you again for your reply.
 
There is really nothing on the horizon that is visible that will hurt this market. Even if interest rates start to rise the market will continue to rally - stocks rose almost every time the Fed has increased interest rates and they are way into the future regarding increasing the Fed funds rate. Relax and get acquainted with the markets and your emotions - just keep you money going into the active funds no matter the environment. There will never be another 2008 unless Hillary becomes president - and that's not going to happen. Just remember on days like today - there is no real end in sight for the S&P 500 rally.
 
Birchtree,

Thank you for your response. Your words of wisdom have brought confidence in my diverse allocation in the equity funds. For now I will stand with my current distribution, maybe even move out of the G & F all together...? Now, for an endless amount of reading and self-education :cheesy: Once again, thank you all for your more-than-helpful responses. I am excited to become an active member here.

Cody Lucero
 
Welcome, Lot's of smart folks here. Read and learn! You're doing one of the smartest things can and that is to start contributing early. Good luck!
 
Welcome Cody! thanks for joining us!

And thanks to all of you who are heping him out!
 
Cody, you are starting out much younger than I did, so that is great by itself.

I agree with Birchtree to a certain extent. Let's say it's March 9, 2009. If you were to jump into the stock funds (primarily S or C) and be completely 100% in those up to today, would anyone else have a better 53-month performance than you? I'm guessing the answer is no. That's zero IFTs in almost 4.5 years and a 150% gain.

Timing the market is something most of us try to learn and do here, and I will keep trying, myself. I'm learning that most of my mistakes have been when I get scared and jump into the G or F funds and watch the stocks move upward. That's why I trail the S Fund by 15% for this calendar year already. But I'll keep learning and trying.

I believe you can improve your performance with timing. As we go into a recession, which occurs on average every 8-10 years, we tend to have a downward market, significantly usually. When the situation seems the worst that's usually when the market turns and big gains begin. That was certainly true in March of 2009.

I believe that in the modern times the market is news-driven. I believe that you can time a market correction/crash by having a sense of what's important in the news and how markets are going to react. The bigger the upcoming drop the bigger the signs. In 2011 we had the battle over the debt ceiling, European and especially Greek debt problems, and the downgrading of US debt. A full year before the 2008 crash we had housing values turn lower, the collapse of American Home Mortgage, massive big bank write-downs, and even the Cramer rant. 6 months later Bear Stearns went under and the market started showing volitile swings, then gas/oil went through the roof and the consumer shut their wallets. I was a dummy for not reading these signs and running to safety.

As Birchtree said there are none of these "imminent disaster" signs at this point. However, I do think that a big worry upcoming is when Bernanke shuts down his QE and raises the federal funds rate. I don't think tapering will happen right away because Bernanke's criteria to take away the economy's feeding tube has not been met yet - maybe this winter. And, I think the next recession is still 2-4 years away.

I watch a ton of financial news and try to get a read on the buzz, tone, and even pitch in their voices for the big scary things. I think corrections stay at 8% or less for awhile. If you can time those you can make great gains, and I'm trying to even though I fail most of the time. There are some on here that have done a much better job than I have at timing those smaller corrections.
 
- just keep you money going into the active funds no matter the environment. There will never be another 2008 unless Hillary becomes president - and that's not going to happen.

Welcome, Cody!
I also started out by just doing Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA), meaning I kept my account 33/33/33 C/S/I. It works very well when starting out, and the relative 'down market' these days meaning that we can expect the market to generally keep going up for the foreseeable future, as BT said. HOWEVER, BT also said that Obama would never be elected for a second term, so be careful (apologies to Professor BT ;) ).
I really liked a recent post from MrJohnRoss, showing how 'set it and forget it' and just watch for WEEKLY 10-week and 50-week moving averages to cross, is a good way to watch out for long term trends. It was his Post#2014 on 8/11/13 on his page 9 (from the end): http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/10024-mrjohnross-account-talk-9.html . I think I like that one (which currently says to be in equities). Thanks again for that post, by the way, John! :nuts: )
So there are lots of ideas on these boards....search around and find one that suits you!

Randy
 
Another question I have... (and anyone is encouraged to answer)
Let's say something happened again like back in 2008...You say you will move it all to the G and F funds. When will you ultimately make the decision? Will it take a few days or weeks for the market to become bearish, or could it happen overnight? Will you start seeing on the news that huge corporations are falling into bankruptcy?

In general, a bear market occurs when there is a 20% drop in the markets over a period of months. Here are a few of articles that may interest you.

Bear Market Definition
Understanding Bear Markets
How Stock Market Trends Work

To understand what individuals do in the markets and why they do it, you really need to know more about their tolerance for risk, their age, and their circumstances. Most of this you won't know about members on most investing sites. That is why it is important that you develop your own strategy, independent of others.

But, I can tell you a little about me, what I did, and why I did it. In 2007 I had just turned 50 and had just been diagnosed with an aggressive form of MS. Given there was currently no treatment for my condition (and nothing on the horizon) I knew that there would come a time when I would be forced into retirement. I wouldn't have 10 or more years to continue to contribute to my TSP. I couldn't afford to lose 50% in the market and have it take 10 years (or longer) to recoup. So after taking loses of around 10% in December 2007 and January 2008 I pulled everything out of the stock market and put it all in G. This included everything I was contributing on a bi-weekly basis. I let it ride all year (2008) in G.

In February 2009, things started looking better, so I entered the market with my bi-weekly contributions. It took me another 2 months before I put the rest of my money into stocks. I missed out on 15% gains by waiting so long to get in. I didn't do everything right but I did skirt most of the losses. Looking back, I could have been a little more aggressive by DCA'ing my way back in with the bulk of my money. Well you know what they say about hindsight being 20/20.

Today, I'm now retired. I'd rather be working but I deal with the cards I've been dealt. So far, most of my disability has to do with gross motor skills (walking/balance), fine-tune motor skills (with my left hand) and general motor fatigue. My cognitive ability has generally been spared (but slowed) -- at least for now. I remain hopeful that modern medicine (possibly stem cells) will provide a treatment in the future. I still refuse to give up my inline racing skates and skate skiis. If they ever find a treatment that reverses my disability you will find me flying down the trails on my skates even if I'm 70!
 
sstasel,

Thank you for the links and the explanation of what constitutes risk tolerance. I am sure that I will find them very helpful. Lately I have been cramming my brain full of information about the stock market and investing....my mother would be proud. I am sorry to hear about your condition. I hope a cure is found and you live to be 120 years old :) You seem to be very knowledgable and willing to help others out. My next investment: Contributions to stem cell research :cool:
Thank you very much once again for taking time out of your day to help me in my investing education endeavors.

Cody
 
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