Happy Trails Account Talk

[Happy_Trails]

Well, that sounds a bit more like it. I guess you just have to be prepared for some months where it does not work but it sounds like over longer periods, things even out with lower volatility and smaller drawdowns. I hate the big drawdowns that you get with buy and hold - it is very painful to watch your account drop 25 - 50%.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Thank you for your updated spreadsheet, David. That C&S fund option is interesting. I have a tough time making calls about when to go with only one or two funds - in this case eliminating the I fund and just going with the US funds. I guess it depends on the $$. The extra factor of a rising or falling dollar really complicates things.

 

[david.alan.williams]

Good Morning!

I found an error on it when it adds up all the percentages but I fixed it. It wasn't much.

The news keeps getting better. Since this method only tracks doing 1 IFT per month, I wondered what would happen if I put in a mid-month entry. I didn't change the basics, it still looks at the last 10 months ending share price, adds them together, then divides by 10.

BUT, placing a mid-month entry in there so it could tell us to move took some of the lag out of it! As you recall, the 33,33,34 CSI earned about 23% over the last 2 years and 3 months on the spreadsheet I sent you. This greatly improved to 46.84% over the same time period by adding a mid-month move point! Not bad at all! Spent hours working on it and still have more I'd like to do and try. I might even go back 2 more year to see if there is anything that has happened in the past that would cause this to hiccup.

See ya,
D

 

[david.alan.williams]

Read my post below before reading this one.


Here are the number thus far. Uses 10 mo. SMA as baseline. Added a mid-month IFT check. Total are for 2 years and 3 months (Mid Oct 2008 - Dec 2010)

C33 S33 I34 Retreating to G 46.84%

C50 S50 Retreating to G 58.83%

C33 S33 I34 Retreating to F 53.58%

C50 S50 Retreating to F 65.83%

I plan now to go all the way back to 2 June 2003 to look for problem areas.

If there aren't any, I think we can call this the "Happy Trading System" LOL

D

 

[Happy_Trails]

Wow! Thank you my friend - I was wondering about a mid-month transfer. Faber doesn't do this because he notes that you could get whipsawed more often than monthly but your results are very favorable indeed. Thanks for all of the number crunching - not my strongest area of expertise!

 

[Happy_Trails]

100% G effective tomorrow. Could not get logged in to the tracker (password problems).

 

[Happy_Trails]

My knee jerk reaction and my emotions got the better of me yesterday as we are now looking at a big day today. I abandoned the SMA and it is going to cost me. I need to stop watching the market and check back only when the system dictates. Feeling very stupid for letting my emotions sabotage the system which was working fine. Last Friday messed with my head. Dumb, dumb, dumb. I am contemplating going back in today and will of course get whipsawed if I do. Man do I feel stupid. The trail is not so happy right now.

 

[Birchtree]

The more you blaze the trail the better you'll get at doing it. It's a long, long year yet. We all make our own mistakes and eventual acceptance is normal. There is always another opportunity.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Thanks, Birchtree. I needed that

 

[FAB1]

The whipsaw smarts.

There is some Bactine handy if you are going to need it but waiting for another credible dip might also not be unwise.

 

[Scout333]

Happy, I understand Birch has a new line of sticky pants. MindyLou's Finest. The trend is your friend. The trend is your friend. The trend is your friend. I just keep telling myself that. Good luck with your investments.

 

[Steadygain]

Hi Happy Trails !!

Hey I noticed F is going down as the Stocks Funds are going up??


It looks kind of weird to see one falling when the rest are climbing.


Soo was wondering if that's a normal thing ????


Good to have ya on the MB.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Thanks Fab - I decided to stay on the lily pad until some weakness appears. Hopefully, I won't be here for too long.

Thanks Scout - the trend is my friend, the trend is my friend, the trend is my friend

Steady - I am not surprised to see bonds declining while stocks are going up. This seems like normal behavior, ie, stocks and bonds moving in opposite directions.

 

[Steadygain]

Well I just turned that Gray box of yours into a Green one.


That's an excellent response.


We're all fortunate to have ya join us.


May your TSP increase 230% within the next 5 years.

 

[PessOptimist]

Based on your user name, this may be of interest.

RFD TV, which is included in many cable/satellite packages, airs The Roy Roger's Show at various times. They are showing a trbute to Roy's 100th birth anniversary this weekend.

Watching is a trip back in time. Those stupid people should listen to Bullet. He is always trying to tell them what's really happening but they never get it. LOL

 

[Happy_Trails]

Based on your user name, this may be of interest.

RFD TV, which is included in many cable/satellite packages, airs The Roy Roger's Show at various times. They are showing a trbute to Roy's 100th birth anniversary this weekend.

Watching is a trip back in time. Those stupid people should listen to Bullet. He is always trying to tell them what's really happening but they never get it. LOL

Thanks for the heads up! I love old westerns - Encore Westerns is one of my favorite channels.