Grocery Prices

[James48843]

US grocery prices have never been more expensive:

The average cost of groceries for a family of 4 is now up to a record $1,030/month.

This marks a +$280 increase since January 2017, when the average family spent $750 a month.

In 2021-2022 alone, grocery costs surged by +$150.

To put this differently, a family of 4 now spends over $12,360/year on groceries, compared to $9,000 in 2017.

 

[Boghie]

Another way of thinking about the stat presents:

• Look at the slope. There was that one AbbyNormal timeframe.
• Take the $150 out and prices have increased $130 over 8 years - ie. averaging $16/year, or a 2.2% increase.

Gotta love even a couple of years of big inflation.

BTW, you DON'T want to see general DEFLATION. You DON'T want to see month after month of price deflation. In terms of difficulty for an economy to resolve:

1. Mild Inflation - just tighten credit a little
2. Mild Deflation - just loosen credit a little, this might be good now.
3. Moderate Inflation - Sharper credit tightening
4. Higher Inflation - Hard credit tightening
5. Stagflation - Hard credit tightening, likely moderate recession
6. Heavy Inflation - Big time credit, likely long and tough recession
7. Deflation - Let's just say no. People will delay purchases for cheaper pricing. Rinse and Repeat.

 

[JTH]

US grocery prices have never been more expensive:

Remember the days when we use to blame high food prices on high gas prices?

Funny, when I visit my home state, I'm reminded just how frugal some of us are, while they floor-it straight to the next red light in a $60K unscratched, (never seen a job site in its life) truck... Setting aside cheap gas, DJT lifted tarrifs on 200+ agricultural products today. Regardless, we all know we an't going back down anywhere close to pre-pandemic levels. We all got a free mask, a free vaccine and a free tax.

Here's a tariff-free dancing banana

 

[James48843]

I paid $8.99 for a pound of hamburger yesterday.

Wow.

Even the fed is tracking burger price- and hasn’t yet caught up. I’m hoping another few months and production will grow. Or not. Maybe those meat cutters all got deported and this is the new normal.

 

[WorkFE]

I paid $8.99 for a pound of hamburger yesterday.

Wow.

Even the fed is tracking burger price- and hasn’t yet caught up. I’m hoping another few months and production will grow. Or not. Maybe those meat cutters all got deported and this is the new normal.

Good butcher shops are hard to find.

 

[Greensboro]

$11.99 for 12 ounces of Dunkin Donut coffee at Kroger. It was half that before the celebration of tariffs that we were told that other countries would pay. (Another lie no one believed.) Reading where folks are saying the impact of tariffs on prices were a one time adjustment and that it is largely baked in at this point. I don't see it. Many businesses worked through their non-tariff inventory during 2025. I think we're going to continue to see a continual increase in prices of consumer goods, imported foods, and construction materials during 2026. On beef prices, the supply side is low and it takes longer to raise a cow than it does a chicken - takes longer to increase supply unless you import which our (Red) beef producers are adamantly against. Was hoping the lack of grain sales to China would drop the cost of feed to the US protein market here to help prices a bit - yet to be determined.

 

[SteelSaving]

$11.99 for 12 ounces of Dunkin Donut coffee at Kroger. It was half that before the celebration of tariffs that we were told that other countries would pay. (Another lie no one believed.)

Do you have some sort of proof for the coffee price doubling in less than a year?

I did a search and found 2024 prices to be between $9 and $15 depending on location.

You could get that coffee at Amazon today for $9.24 if you want to save some money.

 

[Greensboro]

Graph is in pounds. Now $11.99 for 12 ounces.

 

[Greensboro]

August article - hasn't gotten better since then.... There’s Trouble Brewing In the Grocery Aisle. Coffee Prices Jolt Higher. - Barron's https://share.google/uy5U9RCaYmYNzqw2N

 

[Greensboro]

Duncan Donuts coffee was in the $5.99 - $6.99/ 12 ounces range at Kroger in the last quarter of 2024. I drink a lot of coffee and do a lot of our grocery shopping - Just my direct observation and experience.

 

[Boghie]

Black Rifle Coffee (from my order history):

Price Change Date	Price	Delta%
2020/08/20	$25.49
2022/05/02	$30.58	+19.97%
2024/02/21	$23.24	-24.00%
2025/10/13	$25.17	+8.30%

Coffee is not something you should measure inflation on. It is usually taken out of the equation by folks who measure it because it is extremely variable. Same, same with gasoline - but everybody likes to yammer about the price of gas, so...

Regarding coffee tariffs:

1. Everybody got a 10% tariff in April 2025
2. Recalcitrants who did not bend the knee got an additional 40% - 50% in August 2025
3. Those recalcitrant countries bent the knee and kissed the ring, tariffs got removed in November 2025

My coffee price is up a little less than 10% in 2025, so that is likely to be the tariff.

Trump is a money man. Trump is not miserly with money - something I wish he was a bit more of. He has always 'played with other peoples money'. His whole adult life. For him, the tariffs are two things:

• Another income stream
• and, a pressure tool

He will not get rid of them. He does not want to be the first President to default on US debt. So, he is increasing taxes (tariffs) and decreasing expenditures (DOGE and other cost cutting) along with de-regulating (enticing private sector growth - see gas prices). So far, it is working, but is it working fast enough to avoid default?

We are not seeing 10% inflation (what the tariffs would do in a zero-sum game) because other private sector expenses are coming down - which allows the prices to remain stable for most stuff.

We WILL NOT, and SHOULD NOT, see DEFLATION. Deflation is bad juju. If the FED sees a hint of deflation they will act to inflate. That may actually be happening right now.

 

[SteelSaving]

Odd thing and speaks to Boghie's point about not using coffee as a metric.
I buy my beans from a more local roastery via Sam's at 2.5 lbs per purchase.

November, 2023 it was $19.98. Today it is $21.98.
Increase of 10%, that price has been sitting at $21.98 for most of the year as I've considered stocking an extra bag due to the tariff. Factor in the tariff and it's actually below inflation.
I'd offer more data points but I'm guessing most of the more recent purchases were made by my wife so I don't see it on the app.

 

[SteelSaving]

Weather may be a larger factor than tariffs, particularly as the tariff effect ends as Trump ended them for coffee in November.

CNBC article

 

[tsptalk]

Coffee futures: