Griffin Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
It looks like today will be the day to deploy my funds. I'm sticking with my current hypothesis that, the domestics are the way to start a rally with a move to the internationals after the FV. The c-fund looks like the place I will start, one) because of the seasonal strength of the fund and two) the DOW hovering at 14000 is good for the S&P 500 as a whole.

I am expecting a lower opening, comprable to the Eurozone. I'm not predicting the market is going to turn around in the afternoon, but the trend has been with the dip buyers, so we could see our FV today, which means I will IFT to the I-fund tomorrow, but it's off to the C-fund for now.
 
I am shocked that we did not get an FV last night after yesterday's late day rally. I have no doubt there were more people moving out then moving in and the fund probably made a truck load of money (not the share price - I'm talking about the dilution effect).

Without an FV, I am not going to move into the I-fund today, especially since the Fed could spark a late day significant move resulting in an FV tonight. For those that did move into the I-fund last night. You finally got to turn the tables, enjoy! it's well deserved given the number of time you have probably been on the losing end.

As far as making a prediction for tomorrow, I'm staying in. I don't see the Fed hiking rates and I suspect that Bernake is going to be upbeat about the economic situation - were seeing stable inflationary numbers and some decent earnings. The concern is the overbought situation which will probably reach critical mass within another day or two. If nothing weird comes out of the Fed and we see a generally up day all day and into tomorrow morning, then I will stay in through Monday and rethink my strategy then. If the Big caps don't thump the small/mid caps today, then I will probably switch into the S-fund tomorrow.
 
The market is definitely looking and behaving toppy, which is my signal to pullout. However, I am hesitant because the short term support seems to be holding and the current pattern on the charts is starting to look like something we have seen prior to some big "short squeezing" rally's. I hate to dump on a down day that could very easily be followed up with a quick turn around. My feeling is that yesterday's move from the C-fund to the S-fund, was a bit ambitous and that I overstayed my visit at the top. I hate to let yesterday's bad decision convince me to make a bad move so I will probably be looking for CP. I'm looking at the F-fund for several good days of action, since the ten year note yield has broken support and is now dropping. On the other hand, the TNX has a way of turning around very sharply after a big one day move, so I will hold off for a day. I will probably grab the G and switch over to the F on Monday if support fails the stock market. I wouldn't be suprised to see this early morning profit taking turn to some late day dip buying setting us up for a rally on Monday. Oh well, the discipline says move and if Monday is a miss, then so be it.
 
View attachment 1775

There is some more room to the downside and I wouldn't be suprised if we hit bottom. I don't see the market bouncing back to today's open by Monday's close, so if it does bounce on Monday, Hopefully we should be able to pick up a nice piece of the recovery. If Monday goes further south, I would consider a pullback potential fairly high and that would preclude my dip buying until we approached a more significant level of support.

Someone mentioned Dow 18,000 - that sounds like euphoria - and we all know what euphoria leads to.
 
and in the stock market, euphoria leads to...........today

I really try to avoid saying "this is the one" at the start of every drop (and I don't think I've said that since the winter) but the DOW component earnings aren't giving us the gusto we need to put 14K into the history books. Just because today was big, is not the concern, it's the way the market found some support like it did two days ago, and then promptly failed again that has me concerned. We have no economic news to look forward to on Monday or Tuesday, and unless we get some solid earnings news, there isn't really much to suggest that we are going higher. Look at the ten day intraday - it is a sad looking situation:

The 10 day intraday, really shows how the market has really maintained it's optimism over the last few days, despite the steady slide. When it found support at 1530, it looked like a real possible turning point. Going into the weekend with the market having failed to break resistance at 1540 is not good. Monday morning is going to kick off with that and the Far East's follow up (likely red).

View attachment 1776

Birchtree said:
In the four stages of orgasm euphoria leads to resolution. You can verify with Sherry Hite.
Click to expand...
 
Paladin,

Once again, your instincts are good. I just moved into the S-fund. It now looks like almost all the major indexes are going to drift to the bottom of the recent channel. It looks like we have a wedge pattern developing that will close up soon and break out or down. It could breakdown tomorrow, but playing the dips has been a successful strategy that I will continue to follow until it is no longer successful.

The mindset that keeps me buying the dips is: "I know I'm going to get burned when the bottom drops out - but only once (one day) and I will make more along the way buying the dips and eating the loss, then just staying on the sidelines"

Paladin said:
Good point. Asia was up today based on Wall Street's record day Thursday, and so they will definitely need to sell off on Monday. We can only hope for a batch of good earnings on Monday. Otherwise, 1510 might be the next buy-in.

I have to think that the latter part of next week will be better than the first. Monday & Tuesday are still seasonally weak, whereas starting Wednesday the seasonality chart turns bullish for the rest of July. Also, some of the bigger tech & oil companies will report earnings later in the week. Finally, the economic reports later in the week could move the market higher, especially if we establish a base and hold support at some lower level from here.
Click to expand...
 
Looks like the subprime woes are now the prime woes with Countrywide saying they have not seen this type of price depreciation since the great depression (from yahoo's market commentary at 2:30 pm).

The S&P and the Wilshire 4500 are hanging on to an intraday support level, which will hopefully hold through the rest of the trading day. It may not matter, when investors watch the news tonight and realize their investments are all on the verge of tanking.

Unfortuantely, I think this may be the one and I will eat tomorrow's loss and run to the safety of the G, if it doesn't turn around soon.

I think this market can handle just about any piece of news - other then confirmation that the subprime concerns are spilling over. This means the end of the US flood of global liquidity and I expect the rest of the world will take notice.

I find it interesting that Countrywide referenced the Great Depression, I hope that is not a harbinger of what is to come, but it certainly would be the manifestation of the fear that has been lurking in the back of the baby-boomer's minds for the last couple of years.

Tomorrow is quickly becoming a make or break day.
 
Griffin said:
Looks like the subprime woes are now the prime woes with Countrywide saying they have not seen this type of price depreciation since the great depression (from yahoo's market commentary at 2:30 pm).

The S&P and the Wilshire 4500 are hanging on to an intraday support level, which will hopefully hold through the rest of the trading day. It may not matter, when investors watch the news tonight and realize their investments are all on the verge of tanking.

Unfortuantely, I think this may be the one and I will eat tomorrow's loss and run to the safety of the G, if it doesn't turn around soon.

I think this market can handle just about any piece of news - other then confirmation that the subprime concerns are spilling over. This means the end of the US flood of global liquidity and I expect the rest of the world will take notice.

I find it interesting that Countrywide referenced the Great Depression, I hope that is not a harbinger of what is to come, but it certainly would be the manifestation of the fear that has been lurking in the back of the baby-boomer's minds for the last couple of years.

Tomorrow is quickly becoming a make or break day.
Click to expand...

Agree 100%. Today was all about Countrywide! If I would have known they were going to have an investor conference call today, I would have moved some to the sidelines yesterday. They have been the leader in sub-prime woes.
 
Now gentleman we are only 300 points off the new all-time highs. We can easily make that up in a single day - all we need is for the Euro zone folks to come and get some bargains. They are currently buying condos in New York city.
 
All tops form near the highs.......that's why their called tops.

Birchtree said:
Now gentleman we are only 300 points off the new all-time highs. We can easily make that up in a single day - all we need is for the Euro zone folks to come and get some bargains. They are currently buying condos in New York city.
Click to expand...
 
Anyone have a good site handy for info on the Countrywide mess? I missed the news yesterday and am seriously behind on info.

TIA & Good Luck to all today! :cool:
 
Griffin said:
All tops form near the highs.......that's why their called tops.
Click to expand...

I'm going to take a second to approach Birch's comment seriously - First, read Tom's comment's this morning, if you haven't already.

Leading up to last May's pullback. Two things hapended that raised the red flag for me and allowed me to side step that pullback: the market broke out of the short term channel to the downside, in mid-April and snapped right back and broke the close price channel immediately. Then it broke out of the intraday channel to the upside in early May. It wasn't much either way (depending on if you looked intraday or close price), but my feeling was this indicated that the short term channel was losing stability. Our current channel is not nearly as well defined as it was in those days, but I agree with Tom and that this upward climb is starting to become unstable.

View attachment 1790
 
clester said:
Griffin, do you think this will turn into something like feb.? A one day bounce then further down?
Click to expand...

I am very seriously considering the possibility of a move back to the G-fund for exactly this reason but I want to see how the morning shakes out. I expect to have my answer by 10:15 EST
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: The Week of the FOMC Sell-Off
Replies
0
Views
249
TommyIV
TommyIV
V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
157
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Small caps save the Santa Claus Rally while large caps failed
Replies
0
Views
74
tsptalk
tsptalk
TommyIV
  • Article Article
Winning Strategies - Lessons from Top TSP Talk AutoTracker Performers in November
Replies
0
Views
323
TommyIV
TommyIV
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - So far so good for the holiday rally
Replies
1
Views
145
WorkFE
WorkFE
Back
Top