Right.
One of my main beliefs is that everything, except
truly unexpected news, is priced in.
Another thing I find important to understand is how market makers/specialist operate. Although a topic usually reserved for day trading discussions, it does help one to understand seemingly inexplicable price actions.
What's the difference between a Nasdaq market maker and a NYSE specialist?
What's the difference between a Nasdaq market maker and a NYSE specialist?
For example,
You are a widgets dealer. Dealing a thousand widgets per day. By law, you have to buy/sell widgets from/to the public.
You believe the demand for widgets will skyrocket in a few days--triple your daily volume. You don't have the stock--what do you do? You must buy widgets.
If you buy outright, you'll drive up prices and increase your cost--and may not be able to sell at a profit. What to do?
You sell a
little and
show that you want to sell a bunch. You drive the price down and then buy a huge lot. Wash, rinse, repeat.
The game plan is different if the mm's/specialists have too much inventory prior to the demand. IMO, this is why markets sometimes go down with good news, and sometimes go up.
Smart money can also act as a mm/specialists while buying/selling volume.
The above is based upon my memory and understandings from years ago.