10/19/12
Stocks opened slightly lower on Thursday, recovered by late morning, and then were thrown a curve ball from Google just after noon ET. The Dow ended the day down just 8-points but weakness in tech stocks gave the S&P, Nasdaq and small caps a little more trouble.
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[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
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[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:
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[TD="align: right"] 0.0043%
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[TD="align: right"] F-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.03%
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[TD="align: right"] C-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.24%
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[TD="align: right"] S-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] -0.26%
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[TD="align: right"] I-fund:
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[TD="align: right"] 0.27%
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Google inadvertently released their earnings well before the market's close and the earnings miss sent the stock down 60-points. Since Google is such a big part of the Nasdaq 100 Index, it also took a dive just after noon.
The S&P 500 saw a modest loss and is still struggling to close above 1460, although this sideways formation could be a reloading period for another push higher - eventually.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Unfortunately, the next few days are very weak historically, so the S&P 500 will have to buck the October seasonality trend to breakout. Of course this is an election year and seasonality may be skewed. Today (Friday) is the 15th trading day in October...
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The Russell 2000 (small cap index) is at the top of the bull flag (red) and, if you ignore the jobs report day, is still above the bullish falling wedge resistance line (blue).
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Taking a look at the TLT, which is the 20+ year Treasury Bond, we see a possible long-term topping formation for bonds. It looks like a head and shoulders pattern and an attempted test of the head. The 200-day EMA is being tested now, and if this breaks, it could be big trouble for bonds and the F-fund.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I'm posting this oil chart of only because it looks like it is ready to rally again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The inverted head and shoulders pattern looks bullish for oil and the initial breakout target would be about $98 a barrel. That may not be great news for gas prices.
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey System remains on a buy signal for next week after the 50% bulls, 40% bears, 1.25 to 1 bulls to bears ratio.
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
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