GDP Trouble!

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Did you know that the government doesn't report GDP numbers anymore? That's odd. But others still do, and there's something very wrong. They've recently been revised down dramatically.

Maybe I'm the last to know, but I guess it makes sense why the market peaked on September 2. I'll be writing more about this in Friday's commentary.

091621a.gif


https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf


Goldman was the most dramatic revision going from an estimate of +9.0% at the end of July to +3.5%.

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September 16, 2021

Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 3.6 Percent
On September 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.6 percent, down from 3.7 percent on September 10 after rounding.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September 21.

On September 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.6 percent, down from 3.7 percent on September 10 after rounding.

Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 3.6 Percent
 
Wow...

Latest estimate: 0.5 percent — October 19, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.5 percent on October 19, down from 1.2 percent on October 15. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.9 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively.
Click to expand...

Source: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow


gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif
 
U.S. Growth Slowed in Recent Months Amid Elevated Prices, Fed’s Beige Book Says

Companies were burdened with supply-chain disruptions and higher costs, report shows

U.S. economic growth slowed to a modest to moderate rate this fall as firms confronted supply-chain disruptions, elevated prices, a shortage of available workers and fears around the Delta variant of Covid-19, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.
Click to expand...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gr...7xkgdth0vb9&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
 
Hmm. Is it 2.0% or 0.2% as GDPNow estimates?


Economic growth rate slows to 2% on a sharp slowdown in consumer spending

KEY POINTS
The U.S. economy grew at a 2% annualized pace in the third quarter, its slowest increase since the end of the 2020 recession.

Decelerations in consumer spending and residential investment helped keep the number lower.

Weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week to a fresh pandemic-era low of 281,000, below the 289,000 estimate.
Click to expand...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/us-...ed-pace-in-q3-vs-2point8percent-estimate.html
 
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