Stocks were flat to modestly higher yesterday as we continue to see choppiness and some indices noticeably outperforming others. The Dow gained 19-points, the S&P 500 was basically flat, small caps outperformed, and the I-fund fell.
[TABLE="width: 79%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Day traders are probably having a field day if they are on the right side of the intraday choppy action, or they are being completely frustrated by the whipsaws. We are seeing solid moves in one direction or the other, mostly higher in the mornings lately, and then that move is completely erased before another move starts.
Well, not much happening here with the SPY (S&P 500), but that is not a bad thing at the moment. Perhaps it is due for a pullback, but this sideways action does serve the purpose of taking the index off its overbought readings. I have been calling for new highs before any meaningful pullback, and even though we've inched into new high territory, it's not what I was thinking. I'm waiting for a bigger push higher that will take out the bears' stops and get market sentiment into a more extreme bullish level.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Small caps were having a big day on Wednesday, and the Russell 2000 did close with solid gains and at a slightly higher new high, but the selling was obvious in the afternoon trading and it pushed the index back below the all-time high by the close.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Russell has been running hot and has been up 12 of the last 14 days and did just barely made that new intraday and closing high. That scenario has been generally positive for the index going forward. Particularly, take a look at the percentage of times being positive 2 weeks to one month out.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq made another new intraday 52-week high, and it continues to inch higher without much fanfare, but it is above the support from both the rising trading channel and the prior highs, and we'll just have to see how long this trend can continue.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bonds moved up nicely yesterday and the 200-day EMA looks to be holding so far. That's a bullish sign for bonds, and potentially a bearish sign for stocks, but it may not give us instant gratification because the stock market bulls have not gone away.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts and indicators, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
