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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!G Fund
- Thread starter The_Technician
- Start date
The_Technician
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 15
Yeap....looking forward to the .........
next rate increase.....lets see who gets it right...some body already has it wrong....FUTURESTRADER
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 17
where's Techy?...did Birchy really scare him off??
The_Technician
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 15
Right here FT.....Ain't scared one bit....just waiting to see how all these G fund future predictions pan out.....thought the board wanted someone else predicting the fund so I stepped aside for a while...
U having any fund yet?????? :nuts:
mlk_man
Banned
- Reaction score
- 21
Went back and lowered my guesstimation a little bit. Now I'm looking for the penny to come on Monday for the rest of this month. The next "off" day should be Friday Nov 3rd.............
FundSurfer
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 39
Went back and lowered my guesstimation a little bit. Now I'm looking for the penny to come on Monday for the rest of this month. The next "off" day should be Friday Nov 3rd.............
I see you have stepped into the light and have adjusted your starting point a little bit. I guess we scared off Techy.
mlk_man
Banned
- Reaction score
- 21
I think he's just pouting because we informed everyone the G isn't as mysterious as some think so you don't really need a crystal ball............
Real data rules!!
FundSurfer
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 39
I was thinking, how could someone benefit from knowing the G-fund penny?
I came up with this G-fund / C-fund strategy. If you calculated every day the G-fund would pay the penny (correctly) and made a one day switch to the G-fund each time to get the penny from a C-fund position, what would your return be? (Keep 100% C-fund except switch to 100% G for penny days.)
Below is a table for the data I have with me
Not too shabby. You end up beating the S&P 500.Code:Year C-fund C/G Penny Strategy 2004 10.82% 12.41% 2005 4.96% 8.2% 2006-YTD 9.67% 15.24%
Let's see if you convince Birchtree!
qibovin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 6
I'm curious--did you use the actual daily values for these calculations? I had made these similar calculations (and posted them in my account talk thread) several months ago, but I was just dividing the yearly percentage yield into a daily amount which should be a good approximation assuming that the gains (or losses) occur randomly along the basic trend line.
You can really simplify the calculation with a few assumptions. I was assuming that the G-fund was paying out one out of every five business or trading days. This means, perfectly predicting the timing, you would miss out on 1/5 of the gains/losses of whatever other fund(s) you were and gain all the yield from the G-fund. This will work in your favor as long as the market is doing no better than 5-times the G-fund rate. In other words, as is probably obvious, if the market is growing at an annual rate greater than 23.75% (5 X 4.75) then it is paying out more than a penny every day on average so there would be no advantage to moving to the G-fund.
Thus that strategy would look like this (for G=5%):
I was curious whether this would hold up to real data but too lazy to look it all up. Thanks for the post. I think there is a definite role for this--like now when the market is jumping all over the place but is trending overall up--but seasonally there are blocks of time when the annualized yield is greater than 25% so you might be better off staying in stocks during those periods.Code:[U]market rate=x rate with G timing=4/5 x + 5(rounded off G-rate)[/U] -5 1 0 5 5 9 10 13 15 17 20 21 25 25 30 29
FundSurfer
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 39
Yep, actual daily data since 2004.
The_Technician
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 15
Pouting ......hmmmmp.....fraid not.....G-fund mysterious fraid so......didn't make the 6th as predicted, and if you guess at it, it will sooner or later get in sync with ya....I think he's just pouting because we informed everyone the G isn't as mysterious as some think so you don't really need a crystal ball............
Real data rules!!
The_Technician
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 15
My perticular enjoyment comes from the estimate of the 29th which is on Sunday....then its the 10th or "probably the 11th"......you wonder which one it will be .....owell, it will be both....
mlk_man
Banned
- Reaction score
- 21
My "perticular" enjoyment is seeing you think I'm talking about Oct 29th. Now why would I jump allllllll the way to Oct 29th from Oct 2nd? Wouldn't Sept 29th make more sense? To most people I assume it would.........
You should really stop reading only parts of people's posts. Of course, you known for taking things out of context. Did you use to work for CNN?
The one thing that you stated that actually made sense, and I think this may be a first for you, is "if you guess at it, it will sooner or later get in sync with ya". You should know all about this right?
As I stated when I decided to start tracking the G fund again, to let people know that you don't need a crystal ball, I wasn't sure where the G fund was in actual price. Adjustments are needed at the bigging to get back on track.
Now feel free to spin this how ever you like.
Have a nice day.
The_Technician
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 15
Re: G Fund expectations
I really haven't seen any posting of the rate increase in the last several days....I've paged back and found the date predictions from several but nothing over the last several days.....
As an experienced G fund predictor/poster I made attempts, as a courtesy, to ensure the board new of the next increase date just days ahead, basically right after the last rate increase....I know FundSurfer, Griffin, MM and whoever have made date predictions, but I think they should be restated just days ahead of the rate increase....this way it will remind members of when it will come without them having to look up any old posts for predicted dates...this is part of the date predicting process and should be included in your part of making predictions....so if you are making predictions, it would be proper courtesy to let the board know just days ahead.....
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