G Fund

[Crasher]

imported post

Technician, I have been viewing your post on the G fund. Impressive. Can you let me in, on, how you are able to know when they are going to pay the penny increase.

Crasher

 

[The_Technician]

G fund calculated

G'morn there Crasher....I calculate the predicted date...its rather intense and not easy to describe and it seems to me we're having success with it.......but it seems to be fairly accurate except when the TSP guys make adjustments...like they did here at EOY....I suspected they would do it and was looking for it since Nov...., but I didn't have the experience necessary to actually to predict when and if it would actually happen....

By the way, I'm "Carnac the Magnificent" on this thread .....courtesy of NNuut!!!

 

[nnuut]

It's MAGIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[tsptalk]

My predicted date is now between 1/5 to 1/6 2006.....

I say 1/6, unless that EOY adjustment screwed things up, then it will be 1/9.

 

[Gilligan]

4.5%

Carnac,
I noticed that the TSP Loan rate droped from 4.625% in December to 4.5% today. Since the G fund and the Loan rate are supposed to be the same that might move the penny drop back a day, so Tom might be correct on the 9th.

 

[The_Technician]

Carnac,
I noticed that the TSP Loan rate droped from 4.625% in December to 4.5% today. Since the G fund and the Loan rate are supposed to be the same that might move the penny drop back a day, so Tom might be correct on the 9th.

I'm not so sure this will actually enter into my calculation results....I know the G fund curve is currently high on average and will take longer to post the next rate gains....I didn't get a rate gain until 1/6/2006...

I guess we will have to wait and see... in other things.......the F fund is still outperforming the G ....and this should keep up.....I also see that we seem to be in a market mix where the F fund is starting up and the other funds seem to be topped out.....I really question what I see and how it will play out .....but anytime the F fund starts its longterm uptrend, I would speculate that CSI funds to begin a reduction in returns.....especially in a yield inversion....

 

[nnuut]

Might be Friday, but I'm bettin' on Monday!!!!

 

[The_Technician]

Da' Man....

Might be Friday, but I'm bettin' on Monday!!!!

You da' man today NNuut... ..can you tell me why Monday stuck a nerve...?? It would be nice to know for future "Guesses"....was it the loan rate changing that made you go to Monday....

The G fund has really strung out since the last increase....its sort of out of wack since that end of year adjustment....

 

[nnuut]

Just a lucky guess. Last one was an adjustment after only 3 days, I thought this one would return to the normal of 6 days!! No great calculations on my part. You are still the GREAT CARNAC.
Norman

 

[Gilligan]

O Great Carnac,
Would your Crystal Ball have the number 17?

 

[The_Technician]

O Great Carnac,
Would your Crystal Ball have the number 17?

Actually Gilligan....Carnacs magicical numbers come out as the 16th.....

I went back and studied past performances (its a little late), but your are right NNutt...when the G fund does a rate change in short term, its a long term before the next change....so next time, lets all keep that in mind....

I just wasn't expecting the delay myself....it must have been the eggnog!!!

 

[tsptalk]

The 16th is a holiday so it should be the 17th.

 

[Gilligan]

2 cents a day

G fund returns about 4% annually correct? Say the share price was double what it is now (in theory it should be someday, since it keeps rising). The penny drop will have 2x the frequency, yes? It seems the case, in order to maintain a 4% gain. A day far off, we could see a penny a day.

A couple of years ago the penny drop was about two weeks apart, now we are seeing it about a week apart. I believe that not only will we see a penny a day but several years down the road, when the G fund goes over $50 a share, we will be contemplating if the G fund will pay one or two cents for the next day.

 

[tsptalk]

Hopefully that days of 8% plus G fund returns won't come too quickly. If the G fund was around in the early 80's we would probably be looking at 15% to 16% returns. Of course that action comes with a price - ala higher inflation, higher mortgage rates, car loans, etc. It's amazing stocks were up over 30% in 1980 when you could have had a guaranteed double digit return in cash.

I'm sure there are some folks out there who can explain the economic of that to us.

 

[The_Technician]

The G fund pays out.....

Hey thanks Tom for noticing the predicted date was on the weekend.....we got paid on time!!!! Carnac strikes again with the help of the board owner.....!!!

Well, I think we should have a lottery....yeappp, its going to be a guessing game for the next payday on the G fund.......if you have an idea of when, then post it by noon Thursday.....and when I tell you who got it correct.....if you win, I nominate Tom to buy the beer!!!! I'm not rich enough....

Take a guess and maybe we will have some fun this week.......good luck....

Carnac the Magnificient......

 

[nnuut]

Cabernet Sauvignon please! Wed 25, Jan. 2006
Norman

 

[Gilligan]

Thanks for the penny!
Monday the 23 of January. I’ll take one coconut juice in the shell please!

 

[dell]

Could someone please answer a question for me? If I moved to 100% G fund at 10:00am on Tuesday, how would my account be reflected at COB that day? ie - should my account have incurred Tuesday's losses in the C, S, and I (which it did) or should I have gotten the penny (which I didn't)?

THanks - Dell

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Could someone please answer a question for me? If I moved to 100% G fund at 10:00am on Tuesday, how would my account be reflected at COB that day? ie - should my account have incurred Tuesday's losses in the C, S, and I (which it did) or should I have gotten the penny (which I didn't)?

THanks - Dell

thats right dell....your transfer puts you in front of the next morning's waves. it becomes effective the next morning, for market open.

 

[bkrownd]

Just remember, the deadline is noon Eastern time. You might need to factor in daylight savings time too, depending on your timezone.