FV or not FV

[McDuck]

tsp_go, you were dead-on again today!

MSCI is up 4.14% today, which $ 0.91.
My calc for UfV is $ 0.59, therefore I-fund should be up at least $ 0.32 or 1.45%.

 

[tspgo_com]

tsp_go, you were dead-on again today!

MSCI is up 4.14% today, which $ 0.91.
My calc for UfV is $ 0.59, therefore I-fund should be up at least $ 0.32 or 1.45%.

Thanks Greg.

By the way, what ever happenned to the analyis you were doing about the I-fund outcome post FV?. From what I remember you had something big going. I think if it works, it would be one of the best tools to beat the I-Fund with the limited number of IFT's allowed.

Good luck!

 

[McDuck]

I-fund at $22.36, up 33 cents or 1.50%.

tsp_go, you were dead-on again today!

MSCI is up 4.14% today, which $ 0.91.
My calc for UfV is $ 0.59, therefore I-fund should be up at least $ 0.32.

 

[tspgo_com]

A note to myself for tomorrow:

I=22.36

Last I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.03
Today % Change ==>> 4.14%
Current Share Price ==>> 22.94
FV Correction ==>> -0.58
Today Expected FV (+ or -) ==>> 0.00
Today Expected I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.36
I-Fund Change ==>> 0.33

07:28:11 PM on 03/25/08

 

[tspgo_com]

Last I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.36
Today % Change ==>> 4.14%
Current Share Price ==>> 22.46
FV Correction ==>> 0.00
Today Expected FV (+ or -) ==>> 0.00
Today Expected I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.46
I-Fund Change ==>> 0.10

11:59:07 AM on 03/26/08

 

[tspgo_com]

Last I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.36
Today % Change ==>> 4.14%
Current Share Price ==>> 22.46
FV Correction ==>> 0.00
Today Expected FV (+ or -) ==>> 0.00
Today Expected I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.46
I-Fund Change ==>> 0.10

11:59:07 AM on 03/26/08

Last I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.36
Today % Change ==>> 0.49%
Current Share Price ==>> 22.47
FV Correction ==>> 0.00
Today Expected FV (+ or -) ==>> 0.00
Today Expected I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.47
I-Fund Change ==>> 0.11


01:04:55 PM on 03/26/08

Correction: Typo

 

[McDuck]

MSCI up 0.52% today. That matchs with the 11 cents.

Last I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.36
Today % Change ==>> 0.49%
Current Share Price ==>> 22.47
FV Correction ==>> 0.00
Today Expected FV (+ or -) ==>> 0.00
Today Expected I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.47
I-Fund Change ==>> 0.11


01:04:55 PM on 03/26/08

Correction: Typo

 

[The_Technician]

MSCI up 0.52% today. That matchs with the 11 cents.

There is a possibility that we may have a 22 cent -FV today....making the I fund 22.26 for the day......that would give us a + 22 cent FV for tomorrow.....its just a possibility.

Carnac

 

[wv-girl]

There is a possibility that we may have a 22 cent -FV today....making the I fund 22.26 for the day......that would give us a + 22 cent FV for tomorrow.....its just a possibility.

Carnac

On what do you base that on? The $ fell amost .40% since noon, wouldn't that be a + FV?

 

[Guest2]

I'm not too savvy about this FV stuff. I know where the threads are to
read up on the stuff. I'll be doing so very soon. In my humblest opinion;

I understand that the EFA closed unchanged & there was no FV from
yesterday. According to some others, today's FV will lower the I-Fund
share price to 22.26. (or a lose of .10 TSP Cents). However, I believe
Barclays will give back some deficit it owes to the YTD figures. That
deficit currently equals .27 TSP Cents (High) or 1.20%. Don't be surprised
if the I-Fund comes out with a "lesser lose then .10" - "unchanged" or
"with a small gain" based on my estimates. So my best guess would be
between 22.33 - 22.38 per share.

This "Best Guess" is for "entertainment purposes only" and it's always
interesting to see how this all plays out after the 7:30pm TSP update.
Here's to hoping they give us back more. Good Luck.

 

[McDuck]

If anything, I would expect a small +FV due to the dollar.

There's not such a thing as a "Small FV". It either has to be at least 0.5% or is 0.

 

[tspgo_com]

Last I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.36
Today % Change ==>> 0.49%
Current Share Price ==>> 22.47
FV Correction ==>> 0.00
Today Expected FV (+ or -) ==>> 0.00
Today Expected I-Fund Share Price ==>> 22.47
I-Fund Change ==>> 0.11


01:04:55 PM on 03/26/08

Correction: Typo

I-Fund = 22.52 off by - 0.05
No FV.

 

[The_Technician]

Then I would expect either a positive 0.5% FV due to the falling dollar or else no FV at all. The Technician suggested we could have a 22 cent -FV today. Like wv-girl said in her post, I don't see where the negative FV would come from since I thought we were even on the FV going into today. What do you think?

It was mostly based on the performance of the US markets for the day....there was a wide divergence on % return between the predicted I fund and the US markets and generally, the I fund has been following the US markets in % returns daily of late....

 

[12%ayear]

There is a possibility that we may have a 22 cent -FV today....making the I fund 22.26 for the day......that would give us a + 22 cent FV for tomorrow.....its just a possibility.

Carnac

guess not

 

[12%ayear]

There's not such a thing as a "Small FV". It either has to be at least 0.5% or is 0.

However;Barclay can simply take more of the gains away

 

[airlift]

12%,
Do you or someone else know whether trading an ETF such as EFA is applied the same rules as Barclay applies to the I fund in terms of "Fair value"? Thanks.

However;Barclay can simply take more of the gains away

 

[12%ayear]

LOL! Someone please answer his question. All I know is that Barclay's makes up their own rules as they go along. FV method changes on a daily basis, IFT limits, etc.

bingo!!!

 

[MR_BOOOOM]

12%,
Do you or someone else know whether trading an ETF such as EFA is applied the same rules as Barclay applies to the I fund in terms of "Fair value"? Thanks.

Does anybody know the rules these days ?:blink:

 

[MR_BOOOOM]

I-Fund = 22.52 off by - 0.05
No FV.

Thanks tspgo_com for your insight and estimates. Much appreciated.

 

[tspgo_com]

Thanks tspgo_com for your insight and estimates. Much appreciated.

You're Welcome!

Thank you for stopping by!