Future markets next year.

[James48843]

Ok folks- here is a question for discussion.

I’m trying to get my head around the risk/reward possibilities over the next year, and where do I think my money would do best over the next year.

And I’m looking forward thoughts about the impact of various possible future scenarios.

So- hypothetically, how would markets react, and what individual stocks would respond how, if the following Covid scenario played out?

Right now, only about 60% of the USA is vaccinated.

There are still a hundred million Americans who haven’t had Covid, and haven’t been vaccinated, and likely will be getting sick soon. What does that impact? How does the world look then?

I saw the thing on Orlando’s asking to divert liquid oxygen from water purification to the hospitals. What other physical plant impacts are likely? What if wave 4, and a wave 5 hit multiple people and overwhelm hospitals? What should defensive investment posture look like?

Invest in vaccine makers? Invest in home delivery more? Will transportation be more valuable? Help think impact- and where is a good vs poor investment in a situation like that?


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[Bullitt]

I think the big companies will be okay, but the smaller companies will struggle. Sure, there will be some small cap outliers, but the large caps have been positioning themselves since before COVID. For example, WMT is gaining market share in groceries and that's a trend that will only increase. Even without a pandemic, it's much more convenient to have someone else do the shopping for you. MSFT will be used pandemic or not, especially the collaboration tools.

Drug companies are very hit or miss and the ones that don't pay a dividend are mostly nothing but a speculation. It's ironic how long term share holders of PFE are singing in the rain right now. MRNA has a PE of 50 today and that's because it is pricing in a booster for many years ahead.

Now is the time to get in on those re-opening stocks if you're into individual stock picking. Think travel, leisure, cruises here. By time the numbers start looking better, it will be too late. TSP wise, S fund already had it's time in the sun last year. C fund should be the equity fund to overweight going forward.