From all G to S today

[kb9nvh]

Well, yesterday sucked. Looks like my "pulling the lever" method is hit or miss (just like at the casino). Knowing that my casino experience is always bad, I probably need to find a new method and stick to it. I jumped in and out and lost about 2K yesterday. As of now I'm in G and F 50/50.

My only move left this month is all to G. Should I take it or see what F can do for me?

 

[dpmp]

I've been out since the 5th (usually 70%C and 30%S).

 

[kb9nvh]

I jumped in then back out (per the plan) and lost a quick 2200 bucks. I'm out now and am waiting for my next bad move!! haha

 

[dpmp]

I got out on the day of massive drop. Then got in on the day of massive gain. Luckily, I bought in at the same price I got out (C fund). Wasted 2 IFTs for nothing. Pain in the a$$.

 

[Frixxxx]

I got out on the day of massive drop. Then got in on the day of massive gain. Luckily, I bought in at the same price I got out (C fund). Wasted 2 IFTs for nothing. Pain in the a$$.

Sometimes, it doesn't go your way, sometimes it does....Then there's the ties.

 

[pmaloney]

I'll take a neutral over a negative everyday day. Speaks to staying in through some discomfort but at least things are looking up now. Should be a pretty good year.

 

[Boghie]

Thinking about going all G today. I know I should stick with this but I have so much at risk. I suck at investing but catching a good bet every now and then can really perk up a lagging portfolio.
As of COB yesterday 25%C, 25%S and 50%F.
I've traditionally left F alone but from watching you guys it looks like a better safe haven than G for normal times.

I'm 56 and I plan on 5 years to retirement. With $520K now and need to work my way closer to $1000K. I cant just hang out in G but I'm afraid of the bottom dropping out of this. Keeping an eye on all you guys really helps get a feeling for where the dangers are and when it's time to bail out so maybe I should stay in and until calamity gets a little closer. I hate/love this. haha

kb9nvh,

With 5 years to retirement you should not be invested in too much risk. Right now you are at 0% risk and basically 0% return. That will not get you to the Cool Mill you want. You will have to max out your contributions ($18K max 401(k) + $6K catch up + 5% match) and get about 8%/year to get there. That 8% is really 5% after inflation.

The L2030 could get you there - but therein lies the problem You will be retiring in 2020. The L2030 had a 2008 drawdown of 23% while the L2020 drew down 11%. The L2020 was 12 years out from retirement back in the day, the L2030 is 15 years out. My guess is that the L2030 could have a drawdown of about 16% if we had another 2008. Do you have the time to make up 16% - 20% of your asset base.

Finally, you bailed to 100% G in a market with very slight moves. If you keep doing that you will miss the good days like today. If you miss the good days like today my guess is that you will definitely not make the 8% you need. You have got to get an allocation you can stomach and then bet on the edges. Alevin has stuck it through with 15% in C this year when she would normally bail out. She has the properish sticky pants on in relation to her stomach issues.