FNG - chpwolf

[chpwolf]

Good evening. Stumbled around and found this site, figured I would sign up and see what I can learn with mild browsing.

I am intrigued with much of the returns I have seen and am interested in learning more about the concepts. I have had a few curve balls that I have had to overcome.

Essentially, I started my career over in June 2011 when I joined the GS workforce. I bought back a few years (little over 3) from military service (before they had the TSP - at least I wasn't aware of it in the early 90's if it was there).

I've had a 12 month PIP available to view since July 2012, I think. I've had mostly good months of the "rolling 12 month" PIP.
Currently, my PIP is sitting at 28.46% (12/31/13 report). I'm still youngish (42 last month) and can be aggressive and ride the wave up/down until I am very much closer to retirement (about 20 years, if this 28.46% stuff keeps up. )

I do have some questions about things, but need to head out for a bit. However, here are some brief thoughts:
1. I noticed in one of the forum sections, there was a "how was your year?" type thread where a lot of people reported back through 2010 their annual PIP. Has anybody collected/compiled all this data from the members that posted (there were about 70 pages with only about 10-20 per page, not all showing a PIP)? If so, that would be a great resource for a new guy like me to see how my growth stacks up against "the experts" that have been here a while. I saw quite a few that are very impressive! I thought I was doing good with 28+% (and like someone else said, if I ever complain about anything over 15%, somebody slap the stupid outta me).
2. Is the premise that: you try to predict when the market will head south - and before it happens you transfer into the funds that usually drop less during a market drop. Then before you think it heads back up, you transfer back into those funds that dropped significantly (that you avoided by transferring to funds that drop less), but also grow tremendously when the market really takes off again?
3. Does everyone that uses this system here really make 2 transfers a month? I wouldn't mind better methods to track my growth (I do it via MS Excel now, but make a mistake or get too busy from time to time and forget to capture my numbers).
4. Is it ever possible to recover what the PIP would have been if I ever missed checking a month's report?

Thanks! I think I'll like it here, because I have 20 years to watch my progress with like minded folks. I just hope my progress keeps going up.

 

[tsptalk]

Welcome chpwolf!

Here are some quick responses to your questions...

1.) Have you seen the AutoTracker? It has tons of returns of our members going back years. You can explore here... http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp-tracker.php

2.) Buy low sell high / buy and hold / or diversify and maintain. The 3 major strategies

3.) Not everyone but many of us.

4.) Not sure, but someone will know.

Thanks for joining us!

 

[Scout333]

I wouldn't mind better methods to track my growth (I do it via MS Excel now, but make a mistake or get too busy from time to time and forget to capture my numbers).

Hello chpwolf, Try this spreadsheet and see how you like it!

Hello Fellow TSP'rs, The new version of the Scout TSP Contribution spreadsheet is out. Tom was kind enough to post it in the Utilities section. It is very similar to the 2013 version. There are a couple of very simple return on investment calculators. See the TSP Return and Tips tabs for info. FERS employees receiving matching contributions can input the employee contribution amounts each pay date and the calculator gives you return on investment %s including the matching contributions. I added some additional input lines. Its so easy to mess up a spreadsheet when adding lines in the middle of the year.

Enjoy the spreadsheet!

http://www.tsptalk.com/utilities/Scouts_Spreadsheet.xls

 

[Boghie]

As Tom mentioned I think you should take a strong look at the AutoTracker. I think you might like viewing prior months/years of those that use - and compete - with this tool. There are rules for getting to use the AutoTracker, but you are on your way with your thread and first post. Once you get an AutoTracker account you can actually poke around and see everyone's IFT transactions. You will get a feel for the strategies of various people around here.

For example I am a boring allocator (diversify and maintain) - but me thinks nobody believes I maintain

Finally, asking for 15% every year is asking too much. If you can hold an 8% - 12% long term average you will be very well off in retirement. In normal markets - which last year was not - swinging for the fences oftentimes results in strike outs. Striking out is bad when you are playing Money Ball. Getting on base is good. Getting on base keeps you in the big leagues. Striking out keeps you on the sofa talking about your three weeks in the bigs. Tapping home plate, pointing over the left field fence, and swinging for 15%+ every year will add lots of risk to your TSP account.

 

[99percent]

Been here little over a year now. I have learned so much about investing. Some hard lessons along the way. My advice is read, read, read the blogs and the forums. Take the Autotracker with a grain of salt. Methinks some of those high gainers weren't in the game that far in their real TSP. Then after many mistakes you will come to realize your risk tolerance level. And you will be a better investor. Play whats in front of you. Don't chase last year. My humble 2 cents.

Welcome!

 

[OBGibby]

.....4. Is it ever possible to recover what the PIP would have been if I ever missed checking a month's report?.....

Unfortunately, no.

 

[JTH]

4. Is it ever possible to recover what the PIP would have been if I ever missed checking a month's report?

Unfortunately, no.

Anything is possible if you are determined enough, but it requires a great deal of work...

View attachment 26652

Personal Investment Performance (PIP) — The rate of return earned by your entire account during the 12-month period ending on the date indicated on your annual statement or on your Account Balance page of the TSP website. The PIP is a time-weighted return that has been calculated using a modified-Deitz method (a method used by many financial institutions and an industry standard). The PIP adjusts for the distorting effects of cash flows into or out of your account. It is an estimate; therefore, your PIP may not be the same as the 12-month performance of the TSP funds, which are time-weighted returns.

The modified Dietz method[1] is a measure of the historical performance of an investment portfolio in the presence of external flows. (External flows are movements of value such as transfers of cash, securities or other instruments in or out of the portfolio, with no equal simultaneous movement of value in the opposite direction, and which are not income from the investments in the portfolio, such as interest, coupons or dividends.) To calculate the modified Dietz return, divide the gain or loss in value, net of external flows, by the average capital over the period of measurement. The result of the calculation is expressed as a percentage rate of return for the time period. The average capital weights individual cash flows by the amount of time from when those cash flows occur until the end of the period.