Flalaw97's Account Talk

[Beester15]

Do you know what Quart 1, 2 and 3 represent? I still cant quite figure that out...

 

[flalaw97]

Do you know what Quart 1, 2 and 3 represent? I still cant quite figure that out...

I believe those represent the 1st, second and third quartile of investment managers (quartile 1 is the 25% most bearish?) so this would indicate that even the most bearish quartile is 81% invested long (bullish).

 

[flalaw97]

I have been looking hard into Health Savings Accounts and I came across this article: https://www.wealthenhancement.com/blog/wait-until-retire-to-dig-into-hsa
This is the second time I have seen "experts" saying not to touch money in HSA until after retirement, even when you have medical expenses that would qualify. It doesn't make sense to me and when I saw the following example, I knew they were leaving a big factor out of their calculations: [h=3]Save More by Compounding Interest[/h]Consider this example: Person A contributes $1,500 annually to an HSA but uses $500 for medical expenses, creating a net contribution of $1,000 every year. Person B also contributes $1,500 annually but uses money from a checking account to pay the $500 in annual medical expenses. After 20 years, if we assume a 6% rate of return, Person A would have about $36,800 in an HSA while Person B would have about $55,200. While this is a hypothetical example, it illustrates the power of leaving your money to grow as long as possible.
They completely ignored the fact that Person B spent $500 per year of AFTER TAX dollars each year - $10,000 - all of which could have been invested at that same 6% rate of return! And that doesn't add in the 24% tax savings...

 

[flalaw97]

NAAIM dropped a little this week but still pretty bullish sentiment:
[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/08/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84.68[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]43.85[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/01/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]93.95[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]81.31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]39.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]08/25/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]92.83[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.95[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]08/18/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.57[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]35.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]58.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[flalaw97]

NAAIM dropped from 87 to 77 but not a very significant change in the numbers:
[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/22/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]77.70[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]82.63[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/15/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]87.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/08/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84.68[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]43.85[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[flalaw97]

First true bearish sentiment in months:

[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/29/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]55.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/22/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]77.70[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]82.63[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/15/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]87.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.86[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[flalaw97]

NAAIM has not turned back to Bullish sentiment, in fact slipped a little more bearish:
[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/13/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]64.46[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]82.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]115[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/06/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]68.60[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]51.09[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/29/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]55.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/22/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]77.70[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]82.63[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[flalaw97]

And then boom, the most bullish the NAAIM has been in months:
[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/20/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]98.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]87.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/13/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]64.46[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]82.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]115[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/06/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]68.60[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]51.09[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/29/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]55.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/22/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]77.70[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]82.63[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/15/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]87.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/08/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84.68[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]43.85[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/01/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]93.95[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]81.31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]39.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]08/25/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]92.83[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.95[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]08/18/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]70.57[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]35.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]90.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]58.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[flalaw97]

Two more weeks of rising bullish sentiment among those with the "smart money"
[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]11/03/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]107.99[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]89.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]108.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.31[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/27/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]103.35[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]65[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]85.06[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33.03[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/20/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]98.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]87.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]33.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/13/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]64.46[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]82.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]115[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]10/06/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]68.60[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]51.09[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/29/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]55.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]-100[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]2.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.50[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]72.13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/22/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]77.70[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]52.25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]82.63[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/15/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]87.02[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]60.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]47.86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/08/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]84.68[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]45.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]43.85[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/01/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]93.95[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]81.31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]39.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hank you for posting this Flalaw! :smile: wow...very bullish sentiment.

 

[flalaw97]

If you believed that we were in a bear market and don't expect to be able to predict any ups in C, S or I what kind of sector mutual funds would you invest in during the down time? Gold? Energy? Real estate? Value stocks or "inflation protected" funds? Looking at portal options since I have no cash outside of TSP.

 

[LTJPFED]

Not sure this will work but you can try this link to the thread that was started on the Mutual Funds list:
Thread: The TSP Mutual Fund Window - List of Funds


click on the spreadsheet link to open it and then create a filter on the headings
>sort on the Morningstar column
>Equity Energy would be the type for energy

You could do some research on any of those listed there to decide what might be best for you. Not advising anything here but just was trying to give you a way to find some of the energy mutual funds we have access to.

Not sure about gold or real estate but you could probably do some web searching on those types of MF's.

 

[flalaw97]

I am now convinced we are solidly in a Bear market and will remain there for foreseeable future (2023?). I have moved some $ into mutual fund window and dropped it in GSSFX betting against the S&P500. TSP funds are now in G, waiting for a significant upward turn to get back in. When only 16 out of the 916 in autotracker are able to do better than the G fund this year, it is time to sit on the sideline for a while. May miss some of the gains when it finally rebounds but these 2% and 3% drops in a day are gutwrenching.

 

[flalaw97]

Days like this make me wonder are we really still bear or did I miss the bottom?

 

[Whipsaw]

Bottom may be in, also analysis saying we will be in a sideways channel for many months/years, so several visits to the bottom may be in play. Buy and sell appropriately.