Flalaw97's Account Talk

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After retreating to the F fund (turned out to be the better play than G) I am trying to decide when to get back in. Looking at charts posted by Bquat and see strong channels, seems it should be sooner, rather than later.
 
flalaw97 said:
After retreating to the F fund (turned out to be the better play than G) I am trying to decide when to get back in. Looking at charts posted by Bquat and see strong channels, seems it should be sooner, rather than later.
Click to expand...
Since 1988 (31 years) the "F" fund has outperformed or equaled the "G" fund 19 years. You still have some volatility but not near as much as the other 3 major funds. In hindsight I wish I had been in the "F" fund instead of the "G" fund early in my TSP investments.
 
Looking closely at potential exit points and if retreat to F or G this time is best. F dropped more than .75% since I moved out of it at beginning of month. Does that mean there is "room to bounce back" or that with no where for interest rates to go (down), the G is where you put your safe money for now?
 
I honestly don't know... the F-fund has a checkered past, at times it runs contrary to the market, other times with it. Often I would get burned with the F-fund taking a dive the same time the market did.
 
I think if I get out this week, I will be headed to G because F isn't sending any good signals. I need to look at the I fund more to see if there is an opportunity there on the way back to safety. Seems like International is a few steps ahead of us with respect to Covid but not sure how much that is driving the market vs. "baked in already"
 
I moved 75% out of S yesterday and into C (50%) and I (25%) on my way to G. I think we may have hit the top and I think that S will fall the fastest, but not sure if we will get a boost from the Feds, or more vaccine news or a COVID payout or if like me, there are alot of people thinking that there is nowhere else to put their money. G is losing to inflation with no upside. Yes S,C, and I can lose more but there is still potential upside so I am going to wait and see how today plays out before I retreat to G for the rest of August.
 
Good idea! I noticed at this point, looks like I fund has dropped below 80 on Slow Stochastic (losing embedded reading) but has 1 day to re-embed or I guess I will pull my measly 5% to G fund! lol...:D. .... S and C still embedded above 80 ! Best wishes to you and everyone!
 
So today is the biweekly deposit so if C is down, that is my silver lining - buying low. :cheesy: I am still not seeing the retreat signals - NAAIM tomorrow? VIX still low, still on the high side of the Bollinger bands, above the moving averages - like it is defying gravity. Still 50C, 25S and 25I
 
Looks like the pros are expecting the bulls to continue to dominate: the NAAIM jumped up to 102.93 (from 73.05 last week and 58.25 the week before).
 
New thought - applying the "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered" principle to monthly TSP trading. If I can exit during a month having made over 3%, I should. String enough 3% months together and you have a phenomenal return, even if a few months are negative. Riding it up, hoping to make 4% or 5% or more is being piggish and can get you slaughtered (case in point, my October results). There were 3 days in a row that I could have exited with a 3% gain, but instead I stayed and ended up with a 3% loss for the month. Knowing I couldn't get right back in after using my two IFTS kept me in through to November.
 
So we are past that 3% gain rule for February that would cause you to think "maybe I shold get out and wait until next month" but I go back to my November 4, 2020 post and notice that November turned out to be the month to ride the S fund to an 18% gain, followed by a 7% December. So just hitting a 3% mark and taking the money off the table results in significant missed gains. What a crazy game this is.
 
flalaw97 said:
So we are past that 3% gain rule for February that would cause you to think "maybe I shold get out and wait until next month" but I go back to my November 4, 2020 post and notice that November turned out to be the month to ride the S fund to an 18% gain, followed by a 7% December. So just hitting a 3% mark and taking the money off the table results in significant missed gains. What a crazy game this is.
Click to expand...

We seem to be in the neighborhood of "these are good problems to have." Like I said many days ago, rather than getting so worried, I would have been much better off to ride the wave, then I'm not so upset when I get caught in a one, two or five percent downturn. It seems like a solid strategy until the market acts a little more well-behaved.
 
flalaw97 said:
So we are past that 3% gain rule for February that would cause you to think "maybe I shold get out and wait until next month" but I go back to my November 4, 2020 post and notice that November turned out to be the month to ride the S fund to an 18% gain, followed by a 7% December. So just hitting a 3% mark and taking the money off the table results in significant missed gains. What a crazy game this is.
Click to expand...
Yesterday I saw that if things held, I would be over 3% for March and still had 2 IFTs, so I took it off the table. Now to decide when to get back in (I like being in on the first of the month). I still feel like you have to be in it to win it, but if I can get back in after a brief dip, all the better. Those big green spikes on the March seasonality chart have me wondering if I am going to miss the best of this March but when I see a gain in March, compared to last years March loss, I may be o.k. with that.
 
I have been finding of late, and this could change any time (once a pattern is recognized, it will change) that dips have been brief and not very deep (save for the last one, which I discussed in my thread), so waiting for a dip to get back in can result in getting back in at a higher price than the exit. Given IFT limits, and the month long time frame to work with them, a swing trade of any kind can take weeks to set up, if even possible. On top of that, often missing the exit at the high and moving out on the drop, then missing the pop on the other side of the dip makes it even less profitable.
 
NAAIM up today from 78 to 97. So the "smart money" active money managers are more bullish than they have been in months...
 
Do the Lifecycle funds adjust their holdings daily to maintain the publicized ratios? In other words, do the lifecycle funds to an IFT every day to ensure that say L2065 is the targeted mix (today at 50% C, 15% S and 35% I fund - slowly adding in more F and G)? Does that amount to "dollar cost averaging" - since we only get 2 IFT per month, it looks like Lifecycle gets unlimited.
 
just read the TSP website description [FONT=&quot]maintained through daily rebalancing to the fund’s target allocation. so it is daily IFT.[/FONT]
 
Yes, that's been a sore spot for some of here knowing they re-balance every day, so what's the big deal if they added more to the daily tally?

It would probably one big fund to fund transaction each day. Tally up all the moves, and enter the total order in at the end of the day.
 
NAAIM remains steady at 97. Continuing the "smart money" active money managers feeling more bullish than they have been in months...
 
NAAIM line reads almost identical to last week: 93.95 this week, 92.83 last week. Remains bullish.

[TABLE="class: widefat page fixed, width: 520"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Date[/TD]
[TD="class: naaimaverage, align: center"]NAAIM Number Mean/Average[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bearish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Quart3[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Bullish[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Deviation[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]09/01/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]93.95[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]25[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]81.31[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]39.24[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]08/25/2021[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]92.83[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]20[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]80.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]100.00[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]200[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]37.95[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
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