FelixtheCat Account Talk

[felixthecat]

Well, looks like the contrarian move to stay in I Fund is working so far. Even with an up market, the strongest funds today are the I Fund and C Fund. The S Fund is lagging and seems to be hesitant about joining this rally. That is a little concerning since it has been in a down slope since Feb 06. Nevertheless, all funds are up. I'm bothered by the strong dollar which is taking away from the I fund return potential. I have been in long enough in the I fund to see that you must look at both the EFA ( iShares MSCI EAFE ETF - EFA - Stock Quotes ) and the US Dollar Index ( DXY Index Quote - U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Index Price Today (DXY:NYE) - MarketWatch ) to get a sense of the return of the day ). If I just used these two for today...looks like the I Fund would return about .40%...give or take some fair valuation exchange. Sometimes, I don't see the fair valuation taken off or added until the following day so there is definitely a mystery to the I Fund return. In any case, the C Fund is returning the most, then the I fund, then I think the S Fund.

I'm still waiting on the dang strong dollar to weaken. I fund still good enough to stick with...and will save the one move to get back into the F fund after correction is complete. Looks like two good days of upside possible. Ride it.

 

[felixthecat]

Well, looks like the contrarian move to stay in I Fund is working so far. Even with an up market, the strongest funds today are the I Fund and C Fund. The S Fund is lagging and seems to be hesitant about joining this rally. That is a little concerning since it has been in a down slope since Feb 06. Nevertheless, all funds are up. I'm bothered by the strong dollar which is taking away from the I fund return potential. I have been in long enough in the I fund to see that you must look at both the EFA ( iShares MSCI EAFE ETF - EFA - Stock Quotes ) and the US Dollar Index ( DXY Index Quote - U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Index Price Today (DXY:NYE) - MarketWatch ) to get a sense of the return of the day ). If I just used these two for today...looks like the I Fund would return about .40%...give or take some fair valuation exchange. Sometimes, I don't see the fair valuation taken off or added until the following day so there is definitely a mystery to the I Fund return. In any case, the C Fund is returning the most, then the I fund, then I think the S Fund.

I'm still waiting on the dang strong dollar to weaken. I fund still good enough to stick with...and will save the one move to get back into the F fund after correction is complete. Looks like two good days of upside possible. Ride it.

Here is a classic example how the I Fund looks good...but then poof...little return for the day. Better be some fair valuation added for a big day on Wednesday or as Ricky Ricardo would say, “All right, start ‘splainin.’”.

 

[felixthecat]

Here is a classic example how the I Fund looks good...but then poof...little return for the day. Better be some fair valuation added for a big day on Wednesday or as Ricky Ricardo would say, “All right, start ‘splainin.’”.

Bailing on I Fund. Dollar too strong which indicates the economy is primary focus of traders and they think our economy is on the upswing. Job numbers helped to brighten picture including increased wage growth as well.

As for the other funds C/S....they sure feel top heavy here. I belive we need a larger correction to go forward...however...climbing the steep wall of worry has been done in the past...so would not be surprised to see some crumbs still left...any big rally will be sold off.

f Fund still under some pressure...but I'm ready to go F Fund for the remainder of the month. Lick my wounds and wait until March.

100 percent F Fund move today.

 

[Rogue]

Interesting. I've been following you some and just found your Account Talk. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

 

[felixthecat]

This is an ALERT! Protection mode has now kicked in. Here are the problems going forward...Strong Dollar, Collapse in Oil, Mortgage bubble collapse, Greece and the eventual leading up to the Greatest Credit Bubble Collapse like we have never seen. While this may not happen overnight...a big drop is coming n the short term to trap as many of the market herd as possible. In simple terms, You've been living in a dream world, Neo. This is the world as it exists today....stock market carnage and a depression coming. Sounds like crazy talk. Yes, for now. You know that...if I'm wrong...we will have a huge amount of millionaires running around and the cost of living will be crazy high. That will not happen...so the market will inevitably take back the gains. I wish I could say it would be gradual...but no..it will happen fast and hit as many as possible. Good luck to you all!

 

[malyla]

This is an ALERT! Protection mode has now kicked in. Here are the problems going forward...Strong Dollar, Collapse in Oil, Mortgage bubble collapse, Greece and the eventual leading up to the Greatest Credit Bubble Collapse like we have never seen. While this may not happen overnight...a big drop is coming n the short term to trap as many of the market herd as possible. In simple terms, You've been living in a dream world, Neo. This is the world as it exists today....stock market carnage and a depression coming. Sounds like crazy talk. Yes, for now. You know that...if I'm wrong...we will have a huge amount of millionaires running around and the cost of living will be crazy high. That will not happen...so the market will inevitably take back the gains. I wish I could say it would be gradual...but no..it will happen fast and hit as many as possible. Good luck to you all!

Wow! You seem to be in a dark place right now. May I recommend an Epsom salt bath? Works wonders while waiting for the END to arrive. (Colorado, DC, and Washington State residence may choose alternative mood altering 'baths'). A change of 1.7% is not the END of the bull market as we know it. I'll worry when we have a >10% correction. It's all good man, chill.

 

[felixthecat]

Wow! You seem to be in a dark place right now. May I recommend an Epsom salt bath? Works wonders while waiting for the END to arrive. (Colorado, DC, and Washington State residence may choose alternative mood altering 'baths'). A change of 1.7% is not the END of the bull market as we know it. I'll worry when we have a >10% correction. It's all good man, chill.

I like to send out my warnings early.

 

[pmaloney]

The total Solar Eclipse isn't until the 20th right? :smile:

 

[TSP-roulette]

I can't seem to find "felixthecat" gloom and doom previous warnings.

 

[felixthecat]

I can't seem to find "felixthecat" gloom and doom previous warnings.

I stand by my ALERT. I still believe a big drop is coming very soon. I have moved to safety...maybe a bit too early. First comes volatility...stair step down...then the hammer.

Would love to catch those rallies...but I would get hurt more by staying in...good luck to all.

 

[Cactus]

Thank you for tempering my greed. So, do you think yesterday was just a sucker-rally? I've been viewing the recent drops as the market just pricing in the expected future Fed rate hike.

 

[felixthecat]

Thank you for tempering my greed. So, do you think yesterday was just a sucker-rally? I've been viewing the recent drops as the market just pricing in the expected future Fed rate hike.

Absolutely a sucker rally. Took quite a number of folks in too. :worried:

 

[pmaloney]

Well I was saving my IFTs for the Solar Eclipse and I really hate getting out before the FED report next week but this kind of volatility coupled with the decrease in the WTI and other macro uncertainties I decided to take a break and hope for a good re-entry when things settle down bit. Hopefully this won't be another lesson in capitulation. Good luck to us all! :smile:

 

[TSP-roulette]

 

[Cactus]

I stand by my ALERT. I still believe a big drop is coming very soon. I have moved to safety...maybe a bit too early. First comes volatility...stair step down...then the hammer.

Would love to catch those rallies...but I would get hurt more by staying in...good luck to all.

Looks like it's arrived!

 

[felixthecat]

Nice noose being laid out for Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Pretty dang obvious what will happen early next week if World Markets are all correcting at same time. Maybe just a bump down 5 or 6 percent on this leg down...but since We are due for something more shocking...we have some time to see where early next week leads us. For now...stick on the lily pad.

 

[felixthecat]

Steady as she goes. S Fund for now.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

How steady?? You thinking we can reach or exceed new highs (up another 2%) or a bit more modest short term target?
My feeling after jumping in late last week was to cap about 1% and park it for the rest of Aug. But am open to other ideas.

 

[felixthecat]

Well we could hit 2117 S&P and Nasdaq 5120 short term if everything goes well...but expect selling to return after that. We could overshoot slightly but I would sell into it.

 

[felixthecat]

Even with the pullback this morning...Healthcare/Financials/Technology providing support for the weaker areas of the market like Telecom/Energy. I still believe we are on path for a good finish today and continue tomorrow. Relative Strength for any given market sector has been devastated indicating market selling exhaustion. We are extremely oversold....therefore I believe this dead cat bounce may linger longer...maybe cat has more lives here. To me...there may be at least three leaders again tomorrow...financials/tech/healthcare. Good enough to keep me aboard. Good trading all.

https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/goto/markets_sectors/landing.jhtml
https://www.tradefollowers.com/strength/sectors.jsp