FelixtheCat Account Talk

[felixthecat]

Wow! Market flipping over like a flapping dying fish. I take it that a rally in bonds, oil continued selloff, and tax loss selling doing in an already jittery market.

Fasten your seat belt, 2015 looking to be a challenging year. I still hope to earn at least 9 percent...however...that looks to be not without a risk. Good luck to all and have a Happy New Year.

 

[nnuut]

Same toYa FTC have a Great Year!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Congratulations on earning the top spot as the #1 Autotracker for 2014. Of course, you're obviously just a slacker at only 22.49%, since you earned 29.61% last year. What gives?

jk. A tip of the hat to felix the cat!

(Hey, I made it rhyme!)

 

[felixthecat]

Congratulations on earning the top spot as the #1 Autotracker for 2014. Of course, you're obviously just a slacker at only 22.49%, since you earned 29.61% last year. What gives?

jk. A tip of the hat to felix the cat!

(Hey, I made it rhyme!)

Your not kidding about slacking off. The first half of the year was set on cruise mode. The second half I was trailing the masses by a mile. I took off cruise mode and began the long journey to pace myself to the finish. I kept whittling away until I finally made my way to number #10 position...from there...sheer determination and a strange deJaVu that helped me to avoid the decline in the late half of the year. I was actually reading the market very clearly even down till the last day. Weird for sure.

As for 2015...we are going to have to move carefully through some volatile times to get good returns. I'm depending on the great investors here to come together to avoid the market pitfalls. Buy and hold strategy has worked well in the recent years...however...I don't see that working very well in 2015. Be careful out there and protect your hard earned money.

 

[JTH]

Congratulations FTC on a well deserved ranking. I'm not even a bit surprised by your performance this year, you have always been a consistent top 25er since you joined the tracker.

 

[felixthecat]

Thanks for all the private messages several of you have sent me. Here is my reply.

I make my own moves based on my years of experience. If you want to be successful, then read the Latest Commentary Page on tsptalk.com (TSP Talk Market Commentary). You will note important information on Key market Indices and the TSP Funds. This page will tell you when the Funds are due for a rebound or are stretched and ready for a haircut. You will note at the bottom of the page shows TSP Stock Fund Graphics of the C, S, F, I Funds which mirror the stock market of course. This is helpful to see which Fund on a daily basis is doing well in real time so to speak.

TSP Talk Market Commentary

Also not on the same page, you get a snapshot of the TSP Daily returns. on the link below this graphic you will see this link

TSP Share Prices

This link is critical for showing you the Stock Funds past and current prices or Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Yearly Returns. Excellent!

Read the members Forums here http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/search.php...e=vBForum_Post

There will be terrific stock analyses and charting. You will get critical market making decision here.

Do not follow the Herd during long runups or downturns....be a contrarian or go against herd mentality. Remember, the market likes to take out the masses when they are leaning one way or another.

Keep an eye on the top returners and their moves:

http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_u...all_non_ps.php

Keep an eye on recent moves by the leaders:

TSP Talk AutoTracker

Keep abreast of the world markets...Keep an eye on Europe/Russia/Japan since these world markets feed on each other. You can use any world news you want. Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Yahoo Business, or any other favorite.

Key things to Watch Commodities, US Dollar, Home Sales, Employment Numbers, Retail Numbers, Business Inventories. Don't forget, news from Presidents, Warren Buffet, Big Banks, FED, or anything to do with peoples health or Money.

When you make a informed move, no regrets. Learn from your experience positive or negative. Do not make TSP Moves only based on what the market is doing at the time. I swear to you, the market knows TSP Federal Employees makes moves before 11 AM. Make decision knowing the market can turn on a dime like it did 12/31 from morning positive...then downdraft after noon. I seen it happen so many times it is unreal. Better to make moves on solid information that can have longer lasting effects.

There is a mountain more I use to get the health of the economy including watch the railroads, utilities, car sales, and so on. Too much for any one person to keep up with. Buy and hold strategy can work and has done well. However, the Bull run is on life support, be careful with buy and hold strategy. You can get burned badly. Watch your money! Make moves to save yourself. Remember, buy low and sell high is your motto. If you don't have time to study the market, then use the L Funds and let autopilot make the moves for you. They are appropriate for you and are based on your years to retirement.

Good luck to you all! Have a great 2015 and beyond.

 

[felixthecat]

Short note...I'm taking a stab of guessing the end of the Bull run which will be April-May timeframe. Until then, plan to catch brief market corrections with C Fund and S fund moves since I Fund under pressure. At all other times, will ride F Fund. Check out attached picture showing this Bull Run is long in the tooth. While it could go up more, I'm worried Oil will not rebound and the market will remain under pressure. I'm worried about spending which may show a decline after the new year, and I'm worried about Europe debt problems. Russia is also a dang thorn here which may trump all worries. Ugh. Enough worry to keep us in protection mode now. Buy low and sell high. I updated the graphic to show where we are in the longest Bull runs.

 

[felixthecat]

Short note...I'm taking a stab of guessing the end of the Bull run which will be April-May timeframe. Until then, plan to catch brief market corrections with C Fund and S fund moves since I Fund under pressure. At all other times, will ride F Fund. Check out attached picture showing this Bull Run is long in the tooth. While it could go up more, I'm worried Oil will not rebound and the market will remain under pressure. I'm worried about spending which may show a decline after the new year, and I'm worried about Europe debt problems. Russia is also a dang thorn here which may trump all worries. Ugh. Enough worry to keep us in protection mode now. Buy low and sell high. I updated the graphic to show where we are in the longest Bull runs.




View attachment 31822

Since I'm already in G, will hold on a move here. Saving my moves to get into C or S Fund then to F Fund. So, patiently I wait.

 

[felixthecat]

Since I'm already in G, will hold on a move here. Saving my moves to get into C or S Fund then to F Fund. So, patiently I wait.

Oh boy, we have something to reallly worry about here folks. A believe we are going to have a cyberwar soon. I figure this has been going on for some time behind the seen, but it looks like it is going to get ugly here. I guess we will see very soon if there is going to be a retaliation from North Korea. I sure would like to have a crystal ball here, I did not see this coming...but I do see potential for real damage. Hold on to your hats...could get bumpy here before close.

 

[felixthecat]

Oh boy, we have something to reallly worry about here folks. A believe we are going to have a cyberwar soon. I figure this has been going on for some time behind the seen, but it looks like it is going to get ugly here. I guess we will see very soon if there is going to be a retaliation from North Korea. I sure would like to have a crystal ball here, I did not see this coming...but I do see potential for real damage. Hold on to your hats...could get bumpy here before close.

Never a dull moment in the cats brain. Wheels always turning. LOL. :laugh:

 

[pmaloney]

BING Search was down for a little while today and now Yahoo has a problem. This is a potential problem this year but it looks like we may close positive today.

 

[felixthecat]

Yep! The day ended with a flat line heart beat. Can't wait to see what tomorrow will bring.

 

[amoeba]

Wow! Market flipping over like a flapping dying fish. I take it that a rally in bonds, oil continued selloff, and tax loss selling doing in an already jittery market.

Fasten your seat belt, 2015 looking to be a challenging year. I still hope to earn at least 9 percent...however...that looks to be not without a risk. Good luck to all and have a Happy New Year.

This latest top has been at least 3 days in the making; imo the bond rally has more to do with US treasuries outyielding foreign bonds than interest rate speculation, at least for now; the only thing that can change oil is Saudis curbing production; the shale investments have to continue producing to limit losses - at least for the next 6 months; Saudi Arabia has much less cost investment and flexibility. It's hard to make anything like tax losses between Xmas and New Year's eve; seems to have been some mid-day program trading of some kind - and subsequently (on 1/2/15) - large volume trading of some of the large caps (AAPL, GE).

I'm not familiar with the cyberwar rumor (or reality); a few minutes (or even hours) of losing Bing won't kill me; I suppose it's a possibility as a market moving factor - but if it is - there isn't much headline talk about it.

And - my finger is on the button - waiting to see who of our (non-premium member) 2014 leaders (you, uptrend, etc.) moves first.

 

[felixthecat]

This latest top has been at least 3 days in the making; imo the bond rally has more to do with US treasuries outyielding foreign bonds than interest rate speculation, at least for now; the only thing that can change oil is Saudis curbing production; the shale investments have to continue producing to limit losses - at least for the next 6 months; Saudi Arabia has much less cost investment and flexibility. It's hard to make anything like tax losses between Xmas and New Year's eve; seems to have been some mid-day program trading of some kind - and subsequently (on 1/2/15) - large volume trading of some of the large caps (AAPL, GE).

I'm not familiar with the cyberwar rumor (or reality); a few minutes (or even hours) of losing Bing won't kill me; I suppose it's a possibility as a market moving factor - but if it is - there isn't much headline talk about it.

And - my finger is on the button - waiting to see who of our (non-premium member) 2014 leaders (you, uptrend, etc.) moves first.

Thanks for your take on the market. I have always enjoyed your posts. I mention cyberwar because I believe the capability is or will exist soon to hit our markets in a way that will take advantage of fast electronic trading. Another target is our banking infrastructure, or our power plants. I bring the topic up because it is a real possibility brought to my attention when the United States can distrupt North Korea Internet Communication and North Korea can likewise do the same type of damage by hitting our vulnerable areas. Furthermore, we investors need to remember that the next market moving event may not be something we have seen before. Cyberwar is the next big worry for not only the United States but the entire free markets.

If my hunch is correct....we will see more glimses of deeper penetration into our security systems. I say it does not hurt to at least acknowledge that this is something that can rattle markets very quickly.

 

[airlift]

Thanks for your take on the market. I have always enjoyed your posts. I mention cyberwar because I believe the capability is or will exist soon to hit our markets in a way that will take advantage of fast electronic trading. Another target is our banking infrastructure, or our power plants. I bring the topic up because it is a real possibility brought to my attention when the United States can distrupt North Korea Internet Communication and North Korea can likewise do the same type of damage by hitting our vulnerable areas. Furthermore, we investors need to remember that the next market moving event may not be something we have seen before. Cyberwar is the next big worry for not only the United States but the entire free markets.

If my hunch is correct....we will see more glimses of deeper penetration into our security systems. I say it does not hurt to at least acknowledge that this is something that can rattle markets very quickly.

I agree. I love this country; and I pray that we can move rapidly within our democratic and economic institutions to recognize at all levels that we have to take immediate action to reject and overcome any attempt (foreign or domestic) to destroy our way of life.

 

[felixthecat]

I agree. I love this country; and I pray that we can move rapidly within our democratic and economic institutions to recognize at all levels that we have to take immediate action to reject and overcome any attempt (foreign or domestic) to destroy our way of life.

Amen brother!

 

[felixthecat]

Yep! The day ended with a flat line heart beat. Can't wait to see what tomorrow will bring.

Very ugly day in the markets. I went ahead and made a risk move to be in the market tomorrow. I played 100S since any rebound in OIL would probably carry over to S Fund just through market short sentiment. However...if no rebound...then S Fund would hopefully be less of a fall since it does not have as much of the OIL Component as the C Fund. I do see another down day tomorrow, but may recover by end of day...and I see the rest of the week as up if the oil market stabilizes or turns around.

I made this move in conjunction with the past January 2014 early negative performance in mind. Is is just a high risk move...the recent members IFT indicate 50/50 split on Safe vs risk. So the herd factor isn't not too apparent to me. The market look to be 50/50 chance of rise tomorrow. Possibly higher the following day. In any respect, I'm feeling this market acceleration drop to the bones...would not be surprised to see rebound from a nearterm awful day today.

 

[pmaloney]

Gutsy move. Good Luck. Last January was not to kind to me but I think this drop today could be a good buying opportunity.

 

[felixthecat]

Gutsy move. Good Luck. Last January was not to kind to me but I think this drop today could be a good buying opportunity.

Slept on my decision to move to higher risk for today. Still believe the decision was good and still think a negative 1/2 day is in store followed by better trading in the afternoon. Going to hang in there for the remainder of the week unless I overestimated the potential reversal. Not looking for much of a return today but at least I will be in for the snapback.

Will be in touch later today. Good luck and good hunting.

 

[felixthecat]

Slept on my decision to move to higher risk for today. Still believe the decision was good and still think a negative 1/2 day is in store followed by better trading in the afternoon. Going to hang in there for the remainder of the week unless I overestimated the potential reversal. Not looking for much of a return today but at least I will be in for the snapback.

Will be in touch later today. Good luck and good hunting.

Dang! The turnaround should be happening today or tomorrow. I'm a little surprised by
the influence of oil on this market. Humbled so far...I'm also a nut so far. Anyway, sticking to my guns through tomorrow and will reevaluate if needed.