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Powell indicates Fed won’t wait until inflation is down to 2% before cutting rates

Powell referenced the idea that central bank policy works with “long and variable lags” to explain why the Fed wouldn’t wait for its target to be hit.

The central bank is looking for “greater confidence” that inflation will return to the 2% level, Powell said.

The Fed’s next policy meeting is at the end of July.
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Powell indicates Fed won'''t wait until inflation is down to 2% before cutting rates
 
Fed Governor Waller sees central bank ‘getting closer’ to an interest rate cut

Keeping with statements from other policymakers, Waller’s sentiments point to an unlikelihood of a rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month, but a stronger likelihood of a move in September.

Central bankers have become more optimistic by data in recent months that has shown inflation easing after a surprisingly higher move for the first three months in 2024.
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Fed Governor Waller sees central bank '''getting closer''' to an interest rate cut
 

Recent inflation data suggests a "disinflationary trend" and has fueled expectations of rate cuts in September.

The market is so certain of a rate cut coming in September that the current probability is 98.1%. Meanwhile, it's 4.7% for July 31.

While Fed members are speaking openly about a possible September rate cut, they are still watching the data. If data is not favorable to a September rate cut it could shake this market's certainty and induce a correction in its value.

Maybe that was a trigger for selling today when today Fed official John Williams told us a September rate cut is more likely than a July rate cut. That is true, but is that him saying a rate cut is coming in September? Even if it is, no single Fed Member would know that for certain, they are a voting party and can be swayed by incoming data.

More Fed members will talk publicly over the next two days alongside some jobs data, another concern for the Fed and the market. Will they keep this market narrative going?


Top Officials Suggest Fed Is Closer—But Not Yet Ready—to Cut






 
Does the Fed make mistakes... or is everything orchestrated? :scratchchin:


Jobs report stokes fears Fed may have waited too long

The report is "definitely going to raise concerns now that the Fed is behind the 8-ball," Marc Pinto, Janus Henderson Investors head of Americas equities, told Yahoo Finance.

Fed chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that a cut in September was “on the table” as long as the data supported it while acknowledging that there was a discussion at this week’s meeting about whether to move in July.
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Jobs report stokes fears Fed may have waited too long
 
11/14 @ 3:00 p.m. (not sure of the time zone?)

Speech -- Chair Jerome H. Powell

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Economic Outlook

At Conversation with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Dallas, Texas
 
Trump says he will not try to replace Fed's Powell

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said in an interview aired on Sunday he will not try to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell upon taking office in January.

"No, I don't think so. I don't see it," Trump said on NBC News' “Meet the Press with Kristen Welker" when asked if he would seek to remove Powell, whose term ends in 2026.

Last month, Powell said he would refuse to leave office early if Trump tried to oust him, arguing that removing him, or any of the other Fed governors, ahead of the end of their terms is "not permitted under the law."
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Fed Chair Powell says central bank doesn’t ‘need to be in a hurry’ to lower interest rates further

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation down and signaled that policymakers aren’t in a rush to get interest rates lower.

Powell’s comments came in the first of two appearances this week on Capitol Hill.
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Pres of NY Fed's John Williams: Economic data has been sending mixed signals; Labor market started 2025 better balanced; Current rate policy is apt with solid job market+above target inflation - speech text - "The current modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labor market and inflation still running somewhat above our 2% goal."- There's lots of uncertainty in economy and policy right now- Expects growth to slow in part due to lower immigration - Natural step for Fed to slow pace of its balance-sheet drawdown -
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and then...
tsp-032125a.gif

Seems like a knee-jerk reaction.
 
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