Fed Talk

Wait, what? I thought we were getting rate cuts? The market has priced them in already. :nuts:


Fed’s Barkin sees likely soft landing ahead but notes rate hikes still a possibility

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin on Wednesday expressed confidence that the economy is on its way to a soft landing.

He compared the Fed’s job to a pilot bringing an airplane in for a landing, and noted four risks ahead.

Despite noting progress on inflation, Barkin said, “the potential for additional rate hikes remains on the table.”
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Fed'''s Barkin sees likely soft landing ahead but notes rate hikes still a possibility
 
Fed’s Goolsbee says he was ‘confused’ by last week’s market reaction

The Fed voted last week to hold rates steady once again, and its updated projections showed an expectation of three rate cuts in 2024.

That caused a rally in stocks and bonds, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping to a record.

However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday that the reaction wasn’t totally rational given what the central bank actually said.
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Fed'''s Goolsbee says he was '''confused''' by last week'''s market reaction
 
Fed’s John Williams says the central bank isn’t ‘really talking about rate cuts right now’
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said Friday rate cuts are not a topic of discussion at the moment for the central bank.

“We aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now,” he said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “We’re very focused on the question in front of us, which as chair Powell said... is, have we gotten monetary policy to sufficiently restrictive stance in order to ensure the inflation comes back down to 2%? That’s the question in front of us.”
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Fed’s John Williams says the central bank isn'''t '''really talking about rate cuts right now'''
 
I’m not comfortable with their plans. The evidence continues to point to at least one more rate HIKE needed if they are going for the soft landing.

Holding here, and saying they’ll cut next year, is too optimistic for my tastes. We’ve had a few months now to digest the hikes already put in, but I think that digestion is just about over, and the market needs one more 1/4 to 1/2 point to bring inflation down.

We may have a couple of days here seeing a drift upwards, but dang- it’s gotta be close to at least one down cycle.


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Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024

With the inflation rate easing and the economy holding in, policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.5%.

Along with the decision to stay on hold, committee members penciled in at least three rate cuts in 2024, assuming quarter percentage point increments. That’s less than market pricing of four, but more aggressive than what officials had previously indicated.
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Fed interest rate decision December 2023: Fed holds rates steady, indicates 3 cuts coming in 2024
 
Here’s everything the Fed is expected to do Wednesday

What is likely to occur when the Fed session wraps up Wednesday is a policy turn away from aggressive rate hikes and toward plans for what happens next.

The Fed will update its projections on economic growth, inflation and unemployment. Chair Jerome Powell also will deliver his usual post-meeting news conference.

Traders in the fed funds futures space are pricing rate decreases to start in May 2024 and continue through the year. Strategists and economists on Wall Street see a more cautious approach.
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Here'''s everything the Fed is expected to do Wednesday
 
Fed Chair Powell calls talk of cutting rates ‘premature’ and says more hikes could happen

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday pushed back on market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts ahead.

“It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease,” Powell said in a speech.

Powell said the current inflation levels are still “well above” the central bank’s goal.
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Fed Chair Powell calls talk of cutting rates '''premature''' and says more hikes could happen
 
Here’s everything to expect from the Fed’s policy announcement Wednesday

There’s virtually no chance policymakers will make a move either way on interest rates when the Fed concludes its two-day meeting Wednesday.

What investors will watch, instead, are the signals that come from Chair Jerome Powell and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee about where they’re leaning for the future.

There’s virtually no chance policymakers will make a move either way on interest rates.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/31/her...om-the-federal-reserve-meeting-wednesday.html
 
Powell says inflation is still too high and lower economic growth is likely needed to bring it down

“Inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal,” Powell said in prepared remarks. “We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist, or where inflation will settle over coming quarters.”

“While the path is likely to be bumpy and take some time, my colleagues and I are united in our commitment to bringing inflation down sustainably to 2 percent,” Powell added.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/pow...growth-is-likely-needed-to-bring-it-down.html
 
Stakes raised for Powell speech Thursday with 10-year yield on cusp of 5%. Here’s what he could say

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver what could be a key policy address Thursday afternoon in New York.

“Higher for longer” on rates has become an unofficial mantra in recent days, and Powell is expected to join the chorus.

Markets largely expect the Fed to stay on hold with rates, but they will be looking to Powell for confirmation and clarification.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/fed...key-speech-thursday-heres-what-to-expect.html
 
Fed’s Waller says officials can ‘wait, watch and see’ before acting on interest rates

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday indicated the central bank can afford to hold off on interest rate increases as it watches incoming data.

“I believe we can wait, watch and see how the economy evolves before making definitive moves on the path of the policy rate,” he said in prepared remarks for a speech in London.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/fed...-and-see-before-acting-on-interest-rates.html
 
Fed leaves rates unchanged, says we can expect another small rate hike . 25% in the future.

“The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a 22-year high on Wednesday while signaling another rate hike will be needed later this year to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

The central bank maintained the range for its benchmark interest rate at 5.25%-5.5%, but held projections for interest rates to finish the year in a range of 5.5%-5.75%, implying one more rate hike this year.

Twelve members of the FOMC saw one more rate hike needed this year while seven members wanted to keep rates at current levels through year-end.”

More:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fede...gh-signals-one-more-hike-in-23-180117610.html


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