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F R O "FrizzB. Rolo Oscillator ACCOUNT TALK
- Thread starter Frizz B.
- Start date
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Wow, this is tempting, but I am going to stand pat at least one more day. If tomorrow is a long white day with the same high as today and yesterday, then I think that is a sign of resistance and time to bail. It would be nice if there were a late-day reversal.
This may be the expected 1-3-day pullback, in which case I do not want to miss the continuing run-up. It's 50/50, so I will wait for something to sway me in one direction or another.
We're still within the 2% deviation from the moving average; if we were on it or above it, I would be inclined to sell.
heh, My VLCCF opened 5.4% higher today, the only green onmy board, andcurrently up 2%. haha, man, that was supposed to be my "safe, dividend-paying stock" and it is my fastest grower. Too funny.
Wow, this is tempting, but I am going to stand pat at least one more day. If tomorrow is a long white day with the same high as today and yesterday, then I think that is a sign of resistance and time to bail. It would be nice if there were a late-day reversal.
This may be the expected 1-3-day pullback, in which case I do not want to miss the continuing run-up. It's 50/50, so I will wait for something to sway me in one direction or another.
We're still within the 2% deviation from the moving average; if we were on it or above it, I would be inclined to sell.
heh, My VLCCF opened 5.4% higher today, the only green onmy board, andcurrently up 2%. haha, man, that was supposed to be my "safe, dividend-paying stock" and it is my fastest grower. Too funny.
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Are you guys going to start a "FRO Account" so we can see your transactions in a simple format (i.e.: Moving to 20% G, 80% Setc...) or are you going to use Frizz B's Account?
You can expain the analysis in "FRO Account Talk" but I'd love to see the transfers and the returnssimplified here, unless you are using Frizz B's Account, so anyone who follows it can quickly see what your current allocation is.
That would be great! If you are using Frizz B's account, I could change the name if you'd like.
Thanks!
Are you guys going to start a "FRO Account" so we can see your transactions in a simple format (i.e.: Moving to 20% G, 80% Setc...) or are you going to use Frizz B's Account?
You can expain the analysis in "FRO Account Talk" but I'd love to see the transfers and the returnssimplified here, unless you are using Frizz B's Account, so anyone who follows it can quickly see what your current allocation is.
That would be great! If you are using Frizz B's account, I could change the name if you'd like.
Thanks!
o
heh, I worked on ptcrew v2 non-stop, and I mean non-stop.imported post
This is what the FRO would look like if S and C go up 2 cents higher than last Monday's closing prices, which I hope/anticipate they will do. Sδ would be a high 319 and Cδat 103, a little higher than the MA.
The FROis begging me to ditch the S fund. It did not spike to 2σ like I thought it may, but has been drifting upwards. Statistically, that will not last. Three possibilities:
Now C fund's possibilites:
heh...I don't know if I am capitalising on the FRO or bastardising it.
This is what the FRO would look like if S and C go up 2 cents higher than last Monday's closing prices, which I hope/anticipate they will do. Sδ would be a high 319 and Cδat 103, a little higher than the MA.
The FROis begging me to ditch the S fund. It did not spike to 2σ like I thought it may, but has been drifting upwards. Statistically, that will not last. Three possibilities:
- The jump up Monday will likely correct to the drifting MA and probably below. Monday would be a good sell for S.
- The bears and bulls still at stalemate. We would still be high enough for a good sell for S. It will probably get worse before it gets better.
- The bulls fumbe for whatever reason. A 1% drop would put S right at MA. This isleast favourable. If soldand the rally resumes, you will missit. If S continues to drop, then you avoided the dip and didn't cash out too soon.
Now C fund's possibilites:
- 0.6% gain in C and 1.2% gain in S puts Cδ at zero-base, rising. Switching from S to C would be advantageous if C were to continue rising. Selling 50/50 bad/good.
- No change sends Cδ below zero-base. Bad sell.
- 1% Drop sends Cδ below zero-base. Bad sell.
heh...I don't know if I am capitalising on the FRO or bastardising it.
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Okay, several scenarios in the FRO for Monday make a transfer from S to C a good move. Plus, C has been kicking S's butt lately. I also think C's lower volatility and being less prone to drops is a good idea in this environment. Of course, interest rate hikes looming ahead is the biggest factor. I wish I had done this last week, but I am really not used to C beating S. :zz
I put in a transfer for Monday close, 70C/30S. Since I do not want to get out of stocks, the S-Cδ is most useful.
If S drops and C rises in price Monday, then D'OH! But medium-term gains should make up for it in that case.
Okay, several scenarios in the FRO for Monday make a transfer from S to C a good move. Plus, C has been kicking S's butt lately. I also think C's lower volatility and being less prone to drops is a good idea in this environment. Of course, interest rate hikes looming ahead is the biggest factor. I wish I had done this last week, but I am really not used to C beating S. :zz
I put in a transfer for Monday close, 70C/30S. Since I do not want to get out of stocks, the S-Cδ is most useful.
If S drops and C rises in price Monday, then D'OH! But medium-term gains should make up for it in that case.
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Okay, several scenarios in the FRO for Monday make a transfer from S to C a good move. Plus, C has been kicking S's butt lately
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Sorry Rolo, I have to disagree, One month ago on May 10th, C fund was 11.45 now at 11.99 a gain of .54 and the S fund was at 12.19 on May 10th, now at 12.88, a gain of .69, My differential #'s still show that when the market is going up the S fund does better than the C fund. The differentials are (F fund = to 299, C fund = to 89, and the I fund = 48). The F fund diff was at 315 which was a good time to move to the G fund,which I did. My differential still shows me that the F fund differential should still go down. We only hit at 315 for the high this time, so I will be looking for a 290 differential, then I will decide if I will stay in the G or move to the S or I fund.
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Okay, several scenarios in the FRO for Monday make a transfer from S to C a good move. Plus, C has been kicking S's butt lately
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Sorry Rolo, I have to disagree, One month ago on May 10th, C fund was 11.45 now at 11.99 a gain of .54 and the S fund was at 12.19 on May 10th, now at 12.88, a gain of .69, My differential #'s still show that when the market is going up the S fund does better than the C fund. The differentials are (F fund = to 299, C fund = to 89, and the I fund = 48). The F fund diff was at 315 which was a good time to move to the G fund,which I did. My differential still shows me that the F fund differential should still go down. We only hit at 315 for the high this time, so I will be looking for a 290 differential, then I will decide if I will stay in the G or move to the S or I fund.
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Ahhhh...I am doing it again....I keep mixing semi-contradictory strategies...or, rather, not sticking to one strategy by bouncing back and forth unwittingly. I think I am mixingmedium-term thought with market-timing/active trading. So, if you see me do that, smack me in the head, please.
Here is the big question, I think: Will the S/C funds go any lower than they are now anytime soon? (a low enough dip to move TSP funds, that is)
If we have a completely level market before it resumes its uptrend, I would hate to be waiting for a buy point. I really think that is what it is going to do. (I cannot qualify that, though, heh.)
I think it will top Monday or Tuesday (I am thinking Tuesday) and then flatline for a couple of weeks. My lack-of-a-better-plan is to sell most of S for more C on Monday, then sell them both on Tuesday for G.
I should be on Monday morning to watch what happens to see if I want to change or cancelmy transfer.
Ahhhh...I am doing it again....I keep mixing semi-contradictory strategies...or, rather, not sticking to one strategy by bouncing back and forth unwittingly. I think I am mixingmedium-term thought with market-timing/active trading. So, if you see me do that, smack me in the head, please.
Here is the big question, I think: Will the S/C funds go any lower than they are now anytime soon? (a low enough dip to move TSP funds, that is)
If we have a completely level market before it resumes its uptrend, I would hate to be waiting for a buy point. I really think that is what it is going to do. (I cannot qualify that, though, heh.)
I think it will top Monday or Tuesday (I am thinking Tuesday) and then flatline for a couple of weeks. My lack-of-a-better-plan is to sell most of S for more C on Monday, then sell them both on Tuesday for G.
I should be on Monday morning to watch what happens to see if I want to change or cancelmy transfer.
oneyoungbuck
Member
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As of now the differentials are C87, F293, and I43. I am going 25G, 75S for tomorrow. How does that sound to you?
As of now the differentials are C87, F293, and I43. I am going 25G, 75S for tomorrow. How does that sound to you?
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ooooooooooOOOOOOOOOaaahhhhhhhhh HA HA haaaaaaaaaa....nuts.
Something just hit me.
The Cδ is played inversely--when it is low, that means the S is cheaper/C is more expensive, relative to each other, so that would be a sell point.
Conversely, when Cδ is high, there is a larger difference between the S and C, which means either or both, S is expensive, C is cheap, relative to each other.
So, if Sδ is low, Cδ is low, S price is low, C price is high.
If Sδ is low, Cδ is high, both prices are low.
If Sδ is high, Cδ is low, both prices are high. Trading S for C (what I did yesterday) is the last friggin' thing you want to do. (Why didn't this hit me before I traded?)
If Sδ is high, Cδ is high, S price is high, C price is low, relatively speaking.
So I should flip the red/green lines on the Cσ. Should the I's be flipped as well? (I do not want to think about Iδ yet; let me rest first.)
Do I "C" this correctly, Frizz?
True fact: I literally understood Einstein's Theory of Relativity when I was a teenager much more easily than yours now!
ooooooooooOOOOOOOOOaaahhhhhhhhh HA HA haaaaaaaaaa....nuts.
Something just hit me.
The Cδ is played inversely--when it is low, that means the S is cheaper/C is more expensive, relative to each other, so that would be a sell point.
Conversely, when Cδ is high, there is a larger difference between the S and C, which means either or both, S is expensive, C is cheap, relative to each other.
So, if Sδ is low, Cδ is low, S price is low, C price is high.
If Sδ is low, Cδ is high, both prices are low.
If Sδ is high, Cδ is low, both prices are high. Trading S for C (what I did yesterday) is the last friggin' thing you want to do. (Why didn't this hit me before I traded?)
If Sδ is high, Cδ is high, S price is high, C price is low, relatively speaking.
So I should flip the red/green lines on the Cσ. Should the I's be flipped as well? (I do not want to think about Iδ yet; let me rest first.)
Do I "C" this correctly, Frizz?
True fact: I literally understood Einstein's Theory of Relativity when I was a teenager much more easily than yours now!
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With all your symbols, I am confused. I do not have a S differential. Everything is calculated from the S fund. The higher the F differential to the S, (310 or higher, start thinking G or F fund). I only use the C differential as a guide, for I am not going to play the C at this point, either the S fund or the I fund. When moving into the S or I funds, if the I differential is higher than 30, I will play the S, and if the I differential is lower than 30 I will play the I fund. If I start to notice that the C funds starts to outdo the S fund, when the market is rising, I might consider the C fund, but it hasn't as of yet.
With all your symbols, I am confused. I do not have a S differential. Everything is calculated from the S fund. The higher the F differential to the S, (310 or higher, start thinking G or F fund). I only use the C differential as a guide, for I am not going to play the C at this point, either the S fund or the I fund. When moving into the S or I funds, if the I differential is higher than 30, I will play the S, and if the I differential is lower than 30 I will play the I fund. If I start to notice that the C funds starts to outdo the S fund, when the market is rising, I might consider the C fund, but it hasn't as of yet.
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hehehe, Frizz, are you a politician? 'Cos you sure can answer a question without answering the question.
Sδ = S-F differential
Cδ =S-C differential
Translating:
If S-C = high then S is outrunning C.
If S-C = low thenC is gaining on S.
What is your YTD gain as % in $?
hehehe, Frizz, are you a politician? 'Cos you sure can answer a question without answering the question.
Sδ = S-F differential
Cδ =S-C differential
Translating:
If S-C = high then S is outrunning C.
If S-C = low thenC is gaining on S.
What is your YTD gain as % in $?
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Sδ = S-F differential
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THat is what I thought, I would change he Sδ to Fδ, since everything is based on the S fund the S should not be used.
If you notice, when the funds are making money the S fund outgains the C, this is when the Cδ is low, and when you move out of the stocks to the G fund, and the market falls, then the Cδ usually is outgaining the S fund, but both funds are still losing money.
My actually money gain right now is 11.47%
Sδ = S-F differential
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THat is what I thought, I would change he Sδ to Fδ, since everything is based on the S fund the S should not be used.
If you notice, when the funds are making money the S fund outgains the C, this is when the Cδ is low, and when you move out of the stocks to the G fund, and the market falls, then the Cδ usually is outgaining the S fund, but both funds are still losing money.
My actually money gain right now is 11.47%
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