Welcome back! I hope everyone enjoyed their Christmas and their time off. We're still in holiday mode here, and likely in the stock and bond markets until January 2nd.
So far so good for the positive seasonal bias. The bears are hibernating and the bulls are reaping the rewards of the last 5 days of trading, helped by a jolt from the Fed last week. The Dow gained 63-points on Tuesday and historical seasonality remains positive.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 173"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0063%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.26%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.30%[/TD]
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[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
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[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
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The S&P 500 (SPY) made new highs again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Nasdaq has an open gap to deal with and it is now pushing the top of its rising trading channel. Perhaps overextended, in the short-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I posted this chart from mcoscillator.com a few weeks ago and it has so far kept in step with the 1928-1929 crash scenario. I am not calling for a crash. These charts rarely work out exactly, but I am concerned with stocks being extended and since that January 14 date is right around the corner, why not keep it an eye on it?
Chart provided courtesy of www.mcoscillator.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Today (Thursday) is day +1 on this seasonality chart surrounding Christmas Day.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is testing the recent highs and if we do see a breakout above 3% (currently 2.98%) I would think a little more pressure could be put on the stock market.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Bond ETFs do look bearish as we did see a pennent breakout turn into a fake-out on the 20 to 30 year ETF (below right), and the 7 to 10 year bond ETF continues to breakdown from the head and shoulders neckline.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
In today's TSP Talk Plus Report we look at the divergence in the NYSE Advance / Decline line, plus the Percentage of Indicators at extreme readings. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.html
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