Europe / Eurozone

Clearly, three sources of use here are: Associated Press thru Yahoo Finance, FT (Financial Times), and Reuters.
The problem with Slovak Spectator (in English) is that it is a weekly. The two main Slovak newspapers are Sme and Pravda:
www.sme.sk and www.pravda.sk . It seems the vote will be a 6pm this evening, so that would be three hours from now.

Sme is really going to town on it today whereas in previous days it had two or three articles on it per day, likewise Pravda.
Sme shows the following headlines and summations on its front page:

1. Minute by minute: the government will fall, Sulik does not want to give in. MP's decide about broadening the Euroval. The gov't is threatened with collapse, it will be decided at 6pm.
2. Europe and also Japan are waiting on the Slovak vote. Diplomats and journalists from around the world will not let the vote about the future of the euro in our parliament escape their notice.
3. Government in the final lap, writes Peter Schutz in his commentary. . . .
4. The websites of the world, on which Radicova shows up with the Euroval. German, French, and Spanish news portals inform about a possible rejection of raising the Euroval by Slovakia.
5. Smer is not interested in reconstructing the government, is not talking about elections. Smer is willing to let the coalition undergo a test. If it will not be successful and the coalition is not able to govern, all parties that support the Euroval will have to meet again according to Fico.
6. What will become of the Euroval after our NO. The European financial stability fund (EFSF), and then the Euroval, was founded in June 2010, to help indebted nations.
7. The markets are nervous ahead of the Slovak vote about the Euroval. The main European indexes are sinking, investors await the vote on the Euroval in the Slovak parliament.
8. Coalition crisis on Facebook. MP's give their views before the critical vote also on Facebook.
9. Results of surveys about the Euroval do not agree. 36% of Slovaks reject the Euroval according to the results of (one) survey.

OK, that's Sme. Now for Pravda, it's mainly this:
-- Euroval is about the survival of the euro, asserts an American expert: "If Slovakia wants for the euro to survive, you must say yes to the Euroval. If you don't want it to survive, say no," says American economist Randall Filer.

Well, that's it. I've been in contact with only one of my cousins in Slovakia so far, I may get on the phone now and talk with a few more of them to find out what they notice. Anyway, if the parliament votes no, they can come back later -- in a week or two . . . -- and vote again, if they want to. It's interesting what will happen in the short term.

The newspaper Pravda goes back decades to Communist days, now it is not Communist, but centrist, objective, "pravda" means truth in Slovak, same as Russian. Sme was started up after the downfall of communism, it means "We are", compare the Spanish somos and Latin sumus, compare Us, which followed People, and it is also centrist, objective. There is one newspaper that leans strongly right, but I forgot the name of it, I have a copy of it somewhere in my travel souvenirs along with these two and so on. I rather like it that the two main newspapers do _not_ lean in one political direction or the other, at least not significantly.

One interesting remark I saw on either Sme or Pravda a day or two ago, was one Slovak saying, "Hey, do we want to be the black sheep of Europe?"
 
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I just read this in Sme, under "Analyst: Slovakia can improve the image of the union before the world", it may not be a perfect translation:

Trevor Neil, hedge fund manager of the English company Technical Analyst BETA Financial Learning & Development Ltd. doesn't think the vote will affect the markets much. He explains that brokers in the markets know that it is hard to reach agreement over the entire spectrum of countries on such important decisions. "Blocking of the Euroval by Slovakia would not destabilize the markets more than they already are..."

"At this moment the markets are acting very irrationally to this, so that one could say that the markets will react strongly. Slovakia however is not Holland. If such a situation were to arise in Holland, then the markets would fall," thinks Otero-Iglesias. He says that people on Wall Street, Frankfurt, and London cannot understand why Slovakia is obstructing the Euroval."

"It's a pretty thought not to agree with supporting the euro, but what would Slovakia do if the euro were gone? Now they must pay the price for joining it. Their signing on and agreement have obligated them to "save the world," if necessary," said Neil.

According to Neil, voting for it would have a short-lived positive effect on the markets, rejecting it would have a short-lived negative effect. "At present there are really much bigger themes that will be deciding factors. The Euroval will be a past issue," said Neil.

http://www.sme.sk/clanok_tlac.asp?cl=6093077
 
According to Neil, voting for it would have a short-lived positive effect on the markets, rejecting it would have a short-lived negative effect. "At present there are really much bigger themes that will be deciding factors. The Euroval will be a past issue," said Neil.
This is a bit of a surprise...

The Slavic parliament rejected the plan to expand the ESFS. It is still expected to be approved later this week.
 
This is a bit of a surprise...

The Slavic parliament rejected the plan to expand the ESFS. It is still expected to be approved later this week.
This is a not should we help, but how.....The internal politics of the cabinet are hindering resolution. Either way there will be support, it's just who will back it and how much!
From BusinessWeek Link
“The government is set to fall, but the bailout fund will eventually be approved,” Grigorij Meseznikov, the head of the Public Affairs Institute, a think-tank in Bratislava, said by phone after Fico’s comments. “It could take a few days, though.”
 
From the BBC, who have been reporting this outcome as likely for the last couple of weeks or so. The pertinent bit:

However, the EFSF stands a good chance of being ratified at a new vote because the main Socialist opposition (Smer), which abstained on Tuesday in order to bring down the government, actually backs the fund.

"We're saying 'no' to a rightist government, but we're saying 'yes' to the rescue fund," Smer leader Robert Fico said during the debate.

Not entirely sure what this means to market performance in the short term, just hoping that it was expected and becomes an insignificant blip.
 
Not entirely sure what this means to market performance in the short term, just hoping that it was expected and becomes an insignificant blip.

Power play of one party to get new elections to take control of the government. Once Slovakia is on board with their vote, it will represent a unified Eurozone. That's All.
 
I'm positioned for a possible European quantitative easing - perhaps the Fed will eventually follow with a QE3. That would be very profitable for long term equity holders. Especially if the bond market fades and you know it will.
 
London already started their QE3, so after the bailout dust settles, the QE for Europe will start, but I'm not sure that the U.S. can just start printing again. I'm sure there will be a global push to try and keep the dollar stronger. If we want it to stay the global currency.
 
I have a feeling there will be a concerted effort to ease simultaneously, the problem with the Fed is there's a lot of pressure from the politicians not to do any more interventions though I'm not sure Heli Ben will listen...

And, GO BENGALS! ;-)
 
Sheeesh! They're actually talking seriously about the Greek government possibly collapsing as soon as TONIGHT!

It sounds terrible, but is that actually potentially bullish for stocks, considering? I have no clue.

What a difference a couple of days makes.
 
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