05/21/13
After Friday's big rally, stocks took a day off to rest a bit as the indices were pinned near the break-even level most of the day. The Dow lost 19-points and the TSP funds were flat - except for the I-fund.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0113%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The dollar pulled back and the I-fund had a little catching up to do after Friday's rally in U.S. stocks. That added up to a gain of 1% on the day.
S&P 500 is still in its narrow, steep rising trading channel, which started about a month ago. Trends can last a long time, but this tight channel shouldn't last too much longer.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Since the April jobs report, the Nasdaq has been in a ridiculously narrow trading channel. That, added to the rally off the April low, and it has gained 11% in just over 4 weeks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We were talking about this in one of the premium service threads on the forum yesterday, and thought it would be a good topic for today's commentary:
The Cycle of Market Emotion gives us a pretty good idea of how investors are feeling at various stages of market swings. If you are in the stock funds, and have been for the last several months, your emotions are probably near the left side of the chart in the Excitement, Thrill or even the Euphoric stage. When the masses start feeling that way, we're usually pretty close to a top. But what about those who have been stuck on the sidelines?
For those of us who have watched this relentless rally with some disbelief from the sidelines, and especially for those who have been short (bet against the market) your emotions might be found somewhere near the peak in this chart, where despondency and depression are creeping in and it feels like this market will never go down.
The good news in this equation for the bulls is, you've probably made a ton of money during this ride up. The good news for the bears is that your despondency is a sign that the market is probably nearing a top.
The bad news for the bulls is that we may be nearing a top, and if you are not prone to sell, you will see a pullback in your account. For the bears, the bad news is you've missed a golden opportunity for some big gains... Tell you something you don't know? I get it.
I still think that sentiment is one of the best indicators we have and that's kind of what these charts are trying to measure. The fact that our sentiment survey system has been on a buy signal since February 4th, and the market has climbed steadily while our readers have just not embraced this rally, confirms this. I kept hoping for a sell signal in the system myself since I have been expecting a pullback / correction for a long time. But it has proven me, and most of our readers wrong. The system is not an exact science and can be wrong for long stretches, but when it's right, it's right.
We will see dips and pullbacks in the coming weeks, but until we start seeing about twice as many bulls as bears out there, the pullbacks probably do much damage and those dips can be bought.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
After Friday's big rally, stocks took a day off to rest a bit as the indices were pinned near the break-even level most of the day. The Dow lost 19-points and the TSP funds were flat - except for the I-fund.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 154"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0113%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.04%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.07%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.09%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+1.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The dollar pulled back and the I-fund had a little catching up to do after Friday's rally in U.S. stocks. That added up to a gain of 1% on the day.
S&P 500 is still in its narrow, steep rising trading channel, which started about a month ago. Trends can last a long time, but this tight channel shouldn't last too much longer.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Since the April jobs report, the Nasdaq has been in a ridiculously narrow trading channel. That, added to the rally off the April low, and it has gained 11% in just over 4 weeks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
We were talking about this in one of the premium service threads on the forum yesterday, and thought it would be a good topic for today's commentary:
The Cycle of Market Emotion gives us a pretty good idea of how investors are feeling at various stages of market swings. If you are in the stock funds, and have been for the last several months, your emotions are probably near the left side of the chart in the Excitement, Thrill or even the Euphoric stage. When the masses start feeling that way, we're usually pretty close to a top. But what about those who have been stuck on the sidelines?
For those of us who have watched this relentless rally with some disbelief from the sidelines, and especially for those who have been short (bet against the market) your emotions might be found somewhere near the peak in this chart, where despondency and depression are creeping in and it feels like this market will never go down.
The good news in this equation for the bulls is, you've probably made a ton of money during this ride up. The good news for the bears is that your despondency is a sign that the market is probably nearing a top.
The bad news for the bulls is that we may be nearing a top, and if you are not prone to sell, you will see a pullback in your account. For the bears, the bad news is you've missed a golden opportunity for some big gains... Tell you something you don't know? I get it.
I still think that sentiment is one of the best indicators we have and that's kind of what these charts are trying to measure. The fact that our sentiment survey system has been on a buy signal since February 4th, and the market has climbed steadily while our readers have just not embraced this rally, confirms this. I kept hoping for a sell signal in the system myself since I have been expecting a pullback / correction for a long time. But it has proven me, and most of our readers wrong. The system is not an exact science and can be wrong for long stretches, but when it's right, it's right.
We will see dips and pullbacks in the coming weeks, but until we start seeing about twice as many bulls as bears out there, the pullbacks probably do much damage and those dips can be bought.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
