Ed the Fed's Account Talk

[Ed_the_Fed]

I elected to move funds via IFT to the G (75%) and F (25%) COB today. I think the market is overbought and should have a pullback.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

The I fund has now pulled back about 25% from its most recent leg up. My high end target for the pullback was 20.54 and that was hit yesterday. I am not yet ready to jump back in. The pullback could continue as evidenced by how rapidly it fell to 20.54. I am staying out of the C, S and I until I see evidence of an end to the current pullback. I don't think it will fall this far but a pullback in the I to 19.3 is not out of the question at this point. I will be watching closely as I protect my hard earned gains over the last year. I am currently G 75% and F 25%. I am contemplating what to do about the F portion this weekend. I will either keep what I have or move it all to G on Monday.

 

[nnuut]

Yep, I was in 20% "F" until yesterday afternoon. Good-bye "F" fund, I don't trust you, or like you at all. Robber!!!!:nuts:

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

Markets were looking good the first two hours this morning but now its all RED. I will delay a move into the I until this all clears up as it looks like the I will lose a chunk of change today. The S is down also but only about 0.20%. The I looks like it could lose as much as 0.5% or more today. I am currently in the S and will ride this out for another day.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

In my 5-13 post I stated that the I could pull back to 19.3. I didn't say it would, but I did say it was a possibility. I should have listened to the warning bells in my own head. I jumped back into the S today and lost a good chunk of change for it. Now I have transferred into the I (80) and S (20) effective for tomorrows trading. I hope we have hit the bottom of the I pit. I should have stayed in the G until I saw an upward confirmation instead of guessing that we had hit a bottom. No one to blame but myself! Sometimes I feel like the TSP is monopoly money. Maybe that makes it less painful for me when I take large losses like today.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

The I has now fallen to 19.1 but today looks to be up. Hope this is a major support level and not an iterim one. I has support range at 18.93-18.99. If that doesn't hold, next one looks to be in the 18.22-18.29 level. That would be painful!

On the S, 16.94 could hold as their is some support in the 16.95-16.96 area. Next level of support looks to be around 16.79. If that doesn't hold, look out below.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

I just moved all my money into the G. We are overbought on all market indices and are due for a pullback. It may not be a massive one but we are certainly due for one. RSI's on SP500, EFA and Dow Willshire 4500 completion index are all near that critical 70 level. I will most likely sit in G until this pullback occurs and runs its course.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

I am really on the fence but have elected to move to the G. The EFA bounced back and recovered over half of its early morning losses but has now turned down again. Looking back at past big drops in the EFA of over a point have generally followed with two or three additional down days. I think the market has been long overdue for a correction and this may be it.

 

[fabijo]

I am really on the fence but have elected to move to the G. ... I think the market has been long overdue for a correction and this may be it.

Whew! Last time you said something like this was in May of last year. You were spot on:

I elected to move funds via IFT to the G (75%) and F (25%) COB today. I think the market is overbought and should have a pullback.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

I continue to keep all of my hard earned $ in the G fund. I don't like the high volatility in the market right now. Up 100 points one day, down 100 another. Hopefully, the market shakes out in the next few days. I am watching for a buying opportunity in the I fund, possibly tomorrow or Thursday but view this as a short term buy. Not sure about long term.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

I am not real sure what to make of the markets these days. I keep waiting for a long overdue correction that never comes. Meanwhile, I see my opportunity to make money going up in smoke while I sit in G. Effective COB 5/25/07 I am jumping back in 50S, 30I, 20C. I am looking for a quick 2% gain in the S Fund in the next week or two. I will have my finger on the button to get out if the market should turn ugly.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

Wow, S Fund rocked today. Mr S Fund, my retirement account thanks you! However, keep your finger on the bailout button. A major correction is long overdue. I will monitor the first couple of hours in the morning and make a tough decision about stepping back over to the G or staying in the high risk stakes game.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

COB 5/31 I will be moving to 50G 50I. My 2% target for the S fund was met in just three days so I expect a pullback/profit taking. C looks like it might also be topping. I-Fund looks very interesting. It has been somewhat rangebound lately so a breakout upward is a possiblity (of course it could also break to the downside hence the risk of investing in general!). I am playing only 50 in the I. If a breakout occurs, I will probably go all in and reveal a pair of bullets for my hold cards!

 

[2moryrs]

Hi, Ed the Fed guy.
Where do you watch the changes in the TSP funds?
2moryrs.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

After a pretty nice run up this week, I have to believe profit taking is coming. I am moving over to 50G 50F COB 6/1/07. We may even see the profit taking later today, but hopefully not until Monday where I am safe and sound and have protected my recent earnings! I am watching the I fund rather closely as the EFA has been range bound for a few weeks. An upside breakout could be worthy of a nice profit in our accounts. I will probably move to 100I sometime early next week.

 

[Bullitt]

EFA broke out of it's past month trading range, but it's lacking conviction today due to low volume. We'll see how it finishes this week.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

While it is not possible to time the market or predict what it will do, I think you can make some logical decisions based on what it is doing. The EFA (my I fund tracker that I use) has pulled back 1.86% from its recent high to this mornings low. The DWCP (my S fund tracker) has pulled back 1.69% from its recent high to this mornings low. At this juncture, I think the market is going to do one of two things. One is that this is just another minor pullback and we will continue to see nice sweet gains in our funds. The other is that this is finally the beginning of the long overdue major market correction which we all dread. Since I have felt the correction was coming back in January, I still believe we have a major downleg ahead of us. That being said, I think we should see a bounceback on Thursday or Friday and so I have jumped back into the S 70% and the I 30%. If the major correction is in fact coming, I would expect another drop following the bounceback. If it is still an upward market, I will simply ride the S and I for another 2-3% ride. I think Friday and Monday will be important to watch what the market does.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

Ouch, major market pain today. Wish I had stayed out one more day but oh well. I would like to believe we can expect some sort of bounceback on Friday and am staying in for now. If Friday is down big early, I will have to ponder my next move. I need to set aside some time this weekend to ponder the charts.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

First off, you have to love RDO's. I am sitting at home and was able to do some chart analysis this morning. The current pullback in I and S looks very similar to the pullback in late February/early March. While nothing in the markets is guarenteed, I am very concerned about a third wave down (for those of you who follow Elliott wave analysis). If the third wave plays out, I would expect another drop in both the I and S (taking C with it) on either Monday or Tuesday and continuing until the RSI hits 30 or less. Back in March, this was three down days in a row after the minor one day correction up. Today could be that one day up so that is why I am so concerned and want to protect my hard earned investments. Since the drop could be substantial, I am not willing to risk a wait and see on whether Monday is an up day. I am looking for the RSI to reach 30 before I jump back into stocks. If Monday is a huge up day and sends the RSI above 50, I will reconsider my charts as that would most likley negate the third wave down and possibly signal another upward spike. We of course all want that spike but the market has been up for so long that is long overdue for a pullback. RSI as of right now is 42's on the I and 46's on the S.

 

[Ed_the_Fed]

I will be holding in the G day for at least one more day. Need to see where the I, S and C decide to go this afternoon. RSI's are holding in the upper 40s for all three (46.73, 48.74, and 49.55 as of 11:24am). I think we may either retest the lows from Thursday with a nice bounce off and another bull leg up or we may see a further breakdown below Thursday's lows. I think we may still see a drop down to RSI's in the low 30s before this pullback is done. I am taking the conservative play on this one.