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Ebbnflow's Day-to-Day Chart / FEB'07
- Thread starter ebbnflow
- Start date
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
This is where I'll be updating the ebbtracker cross-checking system for the month of February. Subsequent months will be done in similar fashion. The chart will always occupy the first post and therefore be easier to locate. I'll be posting its progress of tracking each fund (C/S/I) and compare it with the regular TSP funds using percentage gained daily.
As of Jan. 16 thru Feb. 09:
............ebbtracker...tsp prices
C-fund...+2.35%.......+0.64%
S-fund...+3.07%.......+2.46%
I-fund....+0.91%.......+2.88%
System...+3.20% (I-fund +0.91% with cross-checking +2.29%)... Monthly breakdown: started on Jan. 16 (+2.66%) and Feb. 01 to date (+.54%)
The ebbtracker's tracking of the C-fund (+2.35%) and the S-fund (+3.07%) shows that it is well ahead of its regular counterparts, the C-fund (+.64%) and S-fund (+2.46%), respectively. While the ebbtracker's tracking of the I-fund (+0.91%) lags -- I'll chuck it up to the dollar being a tad inscrutable lately -- the cross-checking function of the system more than compensates for it. Here's how:
Jan. 24 (WED) : No play on the I-fund, but with two greens (C and S), I was able to play the S-fund (+.95%).
Jan. 25 (THU) : I-fund shows green, but with two stop signs (C and S), I get to sidestep a huge loss (-.98%).
Feb. 06 (TUE) : No play on the I-fund, but with two greens (C and S), I was able to play the S-fund (+.36%). See chart for Feb. at top of page.
Altogether, that's a whopping +2.29% turnaround! In addition, it's nice to see how a sidestep on Jan. 25 (-.98%) equates to a gain. The I-fund (+.91%) with the cross-checking function (+2.29%) combines for a total gain of +3.20%. Sooner or later the ebbtracker will get in sync with the I-fund, then watch out.
On a side note, my ebbnflow account on EWGuy's TSP tracker won't fully reflect the movements of the chart, since I've only followed the new ebbtracker recently around Jan. 27. That's when I first tabulated the results of cross-checking and decided to chart it.
As of Jan. 16 thru Feb. 09:
............ebbtracker...tsp prices
C-fund...+2.35%.......+0.64%
S-fund...+3.07%.......+2.46%
I-fund....+0.91%.......+2.88%
System...+3.20% (I-fund +0.91% with cross-checking +2.29%)... Monthly breakdown: started on Jan. 16 (+2.66%) and Feb. 01 to date (+.54%)
The ebbtracker's tracking of the C-fund (+2.35%) and the S-fund (+3.07%) shows that it is well ahead of its regular counterparts, the C-fund (+.64%) and S-fund (+2.46%), respectively. While the ebbtracker's tracking of the I-fund (+0.91%) lags -- I'll chuck it up to the dollar being a tad inscrutable lately -- the cross-checking function of the system more than compensates for it. Here's how:
Code:
[img]http://i139.photobucket.com/albums/q299/gregorian9er/ebbchart011607.png
[/img]Jan. 24 (WED) : No play on the I-fund, but with two greens (C and S), I was able to play the S-fund (+.95%).
Jan. 25 (THU) : I-fund shows green, but with two stop signs (C and S), I get to sidestep a huge loss (-.98%).
Feb. 06 (TUE) : No play on the I-fund, but with two greens (C and S), I was able to play the S-fund (+.36%). See chart for Feb. at top of page.
Altogether, that's a whopping +2.29% turnaround! In addition, it's nice to see how a sidestep on Jan. 25 (-.98%) equates to a gain. The I-fund (+.91%) with the cross-checking function (+2.29%) combines for a total gain of +3.20%. Sooner or later the ebbtracker will get in sync with the I-fund, then watch out.
On a side note, my ebbnflow account on EWGuy's TSP tracker won't fully reflect the movements of the chart, since I've only followed the new ebbtracker recently around Jan. 27. That's when I first tabulated the results of cross-checking and decided to chart it.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
Last night I looked at the ebbtracker's C-fund and found out that when used with the cross-checking function (S and I-fund), the result for the ebbtracker's C-fund went up from +2.35 to +2.45 or a +.10% boost. Cross-checking (C and I-fund) with the ebbtracker's S-fund also got boosted from +3.07% to +3.34% or a +.27% increase. Nothing like the +2.29% cross-checking boost I got from the ebbtracker's I-fund, but good enough.
thamm
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 0
I am new to the board and like all the information everybody shares. I am looking at the ebbtracker's Feb chart and want to make sure I understand. On the chart for today, 2/12, the system suggests the I fund. Should the IFT be made today in anticipation for move tomorrow or should it have been made on Friday for today?
fabijo
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 26
thamm -
The way ebb has been posting his moves, a signal for the I fund today means you should have put the IFT in on Friday. Look at it as if the tracker is telling you that the I Fund will be green today, so you want to get in the day prior.
fabijo
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 26
ebb, do you think the ebbtracker can start lagging because of those days when the U.S. market is closed, but the internationals are open?
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
I'd say it was more than a little off. :cheesy:
An all green/red day occurred in nine instances since Jan. 16. If two of the three funds get to be green/red as predicted by the ebbtracker, then I'd say it did its job. So far, the ebbtracker has done its job in six of the last ten this happened, just not this time.
Last edited:
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 905
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
............THU..FRI..MON
C-fund.....
S-fund.....
I-fund......
a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I/S-fund). *Optional: Use S-fund if market (DJI) is red before noon.
Following the rules above, I'm on the I-fund for Thursday and Friday, and back to the F-fund for next Monday.
Last edited:
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
Yep, last night was a real bummer, James. We missed some good gains there, but we're back in stocks now, so let's hope it holds for tonight.
fabijo
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 26
For what it's worth:
............THU..FRI..MON
C-fund.....
S-fund.....
I-fund......
a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more dollar signs = stocks (I/S-fund). *Optional: Use S-fund if market (DJI) is red before noon.
Following the rules above, I'm on the I-fund for Thursday and Friday, and back to the F-fund for next Monday.
Wow! All green for Thursday and Friday. Your tracker is not deceived by the witching Friday hype.
Beavis
Market Tracker
- Reaction score
- 2
a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund)
b) Two or more green signs = stocks (I/S-fund). *Optional: Use S-fund if market (DJI) is red before noon.
Ebb,
It looks like the tracker had its wires crossed up a little; should have been out Monday and in Tues. I know you either go All In or All Out. Have you given any thought to maybe easing in or out, maybe 50 G/50 Stocks coming up to or out of a period of several all red days (would have made money last Wed, and not gone down as much on Mon)? I know that may miss some sharp spikes up, but would work the same way on the downs. I know it can't always be right, but it would be nice if it was. Good work though, keep it up.
Beavis
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
I hear what you're saying, Beavis and thanks! Probably it's just my type of personality that wants to be all in or all out. I'd feel like being cheated out of something if I go half-and-half. Maybe after a couple more months of data I would be able to see if the ebbtracker could be better off diversifying.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
