DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[ravensfan]

Hello Annie,

Hope your weekend was relaxing. I was wondering if you had an opportunity to look at the financials for the upcoming week. The Ukraine mess really had the markets spooked on Friday, not to mention Russia's downgrade and thier announcement to raise interest rates. All in all it made for one very strong market sucking tonic. I,m thinking this week may finally turn around and put April in the win column, but then again, look at my position on the AT I realize I don't know much. So what are your thoughts?

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hello Annie,

Hope your weekend was relaxing. I was wondering if you had an opportunity to look at the financials for the upcoming week. The Ukraine mess really had the markets spooked on Friday, not to mention Russia's downgrade and thier announcement to raise interest rates. All in all it made for one very strong market sucking tonic. I,m thinking this week may finally turn around and put April in the win column, but then again, look at my position on the AT I realize I don't know much. So what are your thoughts?

Hi Ravensfan, Will be looking at financials in a bit. Yep...I'm not doing well on the AT either. I've had some major missteps since I stopped following last years strategy.

I noticed something I did not like on Friday. From a strictly indicators standpoint, usually when MACD crosses to positive it results in sideways meandering or upward movement (or at least it did in 2013), but that did not happen this week; instead had drops. So now thinking we could be in for deeper drop. Things seem to be amiss. Would hate to think my initial thoughts a few weeks back are coming true. So now thinking if positive things don't happen this week it might be time for me to exit again, lock in a loss. However, I will not get out until MACD goes negative and it is very close to doing that for S and C fund. So next day or two is critical!

Oh...not sure if mentioned this but my very latest strategy as of about 4/22/14 is as follows:

MY NEW STRATEGY - 4/22/2014
EXIT STRATEGY - Stay in market as long as the 10 day EMA is above the 20day EMA (provided you were in the channel when you got in). As soon as it crosses (10/20 EMA) get out. MACD should NOT take precedence, so if it goes negative you stay in. Ex. 2012 very volatile year, and if you followed MACD for exit you would be out a lot. Use 10/20 crossover in volatile year! If you are climbing out of a drop (I.e. 10 EMA daily is already below 20, you should exit when MACD goes negative...double dip)

ENTRY - Do not get back in until MACD is crossed the signal line to positive, the 10 day EMA line is sloping upward, price has crossed BB mid point. price hitting a higher high not necessary. Ex. 2012. If you waited for high high it would take very long to get back in.

Note: Per JTH, Agg as of late has been a good indicator of market direction. Nasdaq 100 and transports have been a one day leading indicator for stocks.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Music for financials tonight...such a nice relaxed song!

Corrine Bailey Rae - Put Your Records On

Put Your Records On (Live in Williamsburg) - YouTube

 

[ravensfan]

Hi Ravensfan, Will be looking at financials in a bit. Yep...I'm not doing well on the AT either. I've had some major missteps since I stopped following last years strategy.

I noticed something I did not like on Friday. From a strictly indicators standpoint, usually when MACD crosses to positive it results in sideways meandering or upward movement (or at least it did in 2013), but that did not happen this week; instead had drops. So now thinking we could be in for deeper drop. Things seem to be amiss. Would hate to think my initial thoughts a few weeks back are coming true. So now thinking if positive things don't happen this week it might be time for me to exit again, lock in a loss. However, I will not get out until MACD goes negative and it is very close to doing that for S and C fund. So next day or two is critical!

Oh...not sure if mentioned this but my very latest strategy as of about 4/22/14 is as follows:

MY NEW STRATEGY - 4/22/2014
EXIT STRATEGY - Stay in market as long as the 10 day EMA is above the 20day EMA (provided you were in the channel when you got in). As soon as it crosses (10/20 EMA) get out. MACD should NOT take precedence, so if it goes negative you stay in. Ex. 2012 very volatile year, and if you followed MACD for exit you would be out a lot. Use 10/20 crossover in volatile year! If you are climbing out of a drop (I.e. 10 EMA daily is already below 20, you should exit when MACD goes negative...double dip)

ENTRY - Do not get back in until MACD is crossed the signal line to positive, the 10 day EMA line is sloping upward, price has crossed BB mid point. price hitting a higher high not necessary. Ex. 2012. If you waited for high high it would take very long to get back in.

Note: Per JTH, Agg as of late has been a good indicator of market direction. Nasdaq 100 and transports have been a one day leading indicator for stocks.

That is an interesting exit strategy and is certainly a different way to look at things. I've been using the 10 day crossing below the 20 day or the 20 day crossing below the 50 day as buying opportunities, but that is the very thing that has me into the pickle I'm currently in. I realize now how important waiting for the MACD positive crossover is.

Thanks for the tip. I think I will add that to my strategy

I'm going to hang in at least through this week which will take in the 1st & 2nd of May. Then if I decide to get out I will still have one IFT to get back in later in the month.

All the best and good luck this week.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi Ravensfan, Will be looking at financials in a bit. Yep...I'm not doing well on the AT either. I've had some major missteps since I stopped following last years strategy.

I noticed something I did not like on Friday. From a strictly indicators standpoint, usually when MACD crosses to positive it results in sideways meandering or upward movement (or at least it did in 2013), but that did not happen this week; instead had drops. So now thinking we could be in for deeper drop. Things seem to be amiss. Would hate to think my initial thoughts a few weeks back are coming true. So now thinking if positive things don't happen this week it might be time for me to exit again, lock in a loss. However, I will not get out until MACD goes negative and it is very close to doing that for S and C fund. So next day or two is critical!

Oh...not sure if mentioned this but my very latest strategy as of about 4/22/14 is as follows:

MY NEW STRATEGY - 4/22/2014
EXIT STRATEGY - Stay in market as long as the 10 day EMA is above the 20day EMA (provided you were in the channel when you got in). As soon as it crosses (10/20 EMA) get out. MACD should NOT take precedence, so if it goes negative you stay in. Ex. 2012 very volatile year, and if you followed MACD for exit you would be out a lot. Use 10/20 crossover in volatile year! If you are climbing out of a drop (I.e. 10 EMA daily is already below 20, you should exit when MACD goes negative...double dip)

ENTRY - Do not get back in until MACD is crossed the signal line to positive, the 10 day EMA line is sloping upward, price has crossed BB mid point. price hitting a higher high not necessary. Ex. 2012. If you waited for high high it would take very long to get back in.

Note: Per JTH, Agg as of late has been a good indicator of market direction. Nasdaq 100 and transports have been a one day leading indicator for stocks.

one more note on strategy. Probably should stay out of market when 10 is below 20 daily EMA. Historically looks to indicate short term down trend periods and can be significant. Look at 2008 and 2012.

Just looked at charts. C fund is in the 10 day channel but just barely and wick on Friday hit 20 day EMA line...that is an exit for me two days later so I should exit on Tuesday. As for S fund, it's so low and MACD line rolling downward..looks like it's going for double dip down...should get out. Will see tomorrow...

 

[airlift]

Hi Ravensfan, Will be looking at financials in a bit. Yep...I'm not doing well on the AT either. I've had some major missteps since I stopped following last years strategy.

I noticed something I did not like on Friday. From a strictly indicators standpoint, usually when MACD crosses to positive it results in sideways meandering or upward movement (or at least it did in 2013), but that did not happen this week; instead had drops. So now thinking we could be in for deeper drop. Things seem to be amiss. Would hate to think my initial thoughts a few weeks back are coming true. So now thinking if positive things don't happen this week it might be time for me to exit again, lock in a loss. However, I will not get out until MACD goes negative and it is very close to doing that for S and C fund. So next day or two is critical!

Oh...not sure if mentioned this but my very latest strategy as of about 4/22/14 is as follows:

MY NEW STRATEGY - 4/22/2014
EXIT STRATEGY - Stay in market as long as the 10 day EMA is above the 20day EMA (provided you were in the channel when you got in). As soon as it crosses (10/20 EMA) get out. MACD should NOT take precedence, so if it goes negative you stay in. Ex. 2012 very volatile year, and if you followed MACD for exit you would be out a lot. Use 10/20 crossover in volatile year! If you are climbing out of a drop (I.e. 10 EMA daily is already below 20, you should exit when MACD goes negative...double dip)

ENTRY - Do not get back in until MACD is crossed the signal line to positive, the 10 day EMA line is sloping upward, price has crossed BB mid point. price hitting a higher high not necessary. Ex. 2012. If you waited for high high it would take very long to get back in.

Note: Per JTH, Agg as of late has been a good indicator of market direction. Nasdaq 100 and transports have been a one day leading indicator for stocks.

This is a terrific post. Your observations and strategy must be considered very useful. Thank you.

 

[ravensfan]

This is a terrific post. Your observations and strategy must be considered very useful. Thank you.

Hey airlift,

Lots of smart folks on this site and DBA is certainly one of them...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

This is a terrific post. Your observations and strategy must be considered very useful. Thank you.

Hey airlift,

Lots of smart folks on this site and DBA is certainly one of them...

Ravensfan and Airlift, Thank you so much for very kind comments. I really appreciate it.
Really wish I could stick to latest strategy. Still think I need to incorporate more on futures, transports, and bond yields to help with spotting market direction better.

Also in that strategy I failed to mention, I like to get out two days after candle wick touches 20 day EMA, when price has already been riding in the 10 day EMA channel. Just seems there is always a short down turn after that happens. So I'm targeting tomorrow for exit..but will see..

 

[ravensfan]

Ravensfan and Airlift, Thank you so much for very kind comments. I really appreciate it.
Really wish I could stick to latest strategy. Still think I need to incorporate more on futures, transports, and bond yields to help with spotting market direction better.

Also in that strategy I failed to mention, I like to get out two days after candle wick touches 20 day EMA, when price has already been riding in the 10 day EMA channel. Just seems there is always a short down turn after that happens. So I'm targeting tomorrow for exit..but will see..

Don't feel bad DBA. A whole bunch of people blew it on April, me included. The best we can do is to pick up the pieces and move on. There will be other opportunities down the line.

I've been thinking of changing my allocation tomorrow moving some into the C Fund and decreasing my exposure. I'll look at financials this evening and if it's feasable make the move tomorrow. I want to be at least partially invested for May.

 

[airlift]

Ravensfan and Airlift, Thank you so much for very kind comments. I really appreciate it.
Really wish I could stick to latest strategy. Still think I need to incorporate more on futures, transports, and bond yields to help with spotting market direction better.

Also in that strategy I failed to mention, I like to get out two days after candle wick touches 20 day EMA, when price has already been riding in the 10 day EMA channel. Just seems there is always a short down turn after that happens. So I'm targeting tomorrow for exit..but will see..

DBA,

I would like to make sure of which index you watching when you test your entry/exit strategies. Do work primarily with the indicators on the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX)? Tia.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

[/B]DBA,

I would like to make sure of which index you watching when you test your entry/exit strategies. Do work primarily with the indicators on the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX)? Tia.

Hello Tia....Yes, I use SPX ( C fund) and DWCPF (S fund)...See post 562 for links to the charts I use (Big Charts). I have them set to look at daily and weekly indicators. Best Wishes on your investments!

 

[airlift]

COPY:

Today, 03:15 PM #6356 airlift

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Join DateMay 2006Posts2,176

[h=2]

Re: JTH's Account Talk[/h]

JTH,

Your decision is proving you right. You decided to stay invested and to climb the wall of worry. DBA and some others also decided to stay invested, even though their system was calling them to sell. It seem clear to me that, despite so much uncertainty in the market, at least both DBA and you, were right. I believe that both of you want to be invested for the "first couple to days of May", and then sell (or not)?

Based on what seems to be a correct decision to remain invested in TSP stock funds, and understanding that everyone takes responsibility for their own actions, I need to ask you and others:

Hypothetical, if you had one more actionable IFT, and if you could use it right now, would buying right now before 4:00 PM, COB; or would you wait until tomorrow (May 1st) to Buy? Thank you​

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Re: JTH's Account Talk[/h]

JTH,

Your decision is proving you right. You decided to stay invested and to climb the wall of worry. DBA and some others also decided to stay invested, even though their system was calling them to sell. It seem clear to me that, despite so much uncertainty in the market, at least both DBA and you, were right. I believe that both of you want to be invested for the "first couple to days of May", and then sell (or not)?

Based on what seems to be a correct decision to remain invested in TSP stock funds, and understanding that everyone takes responsibility for their own actions, I need to ask you and others:

Hypothetical, if you had one more actionable IFT, and if you could use it right now, would buying right now before 4:00 PM, COB; or would you wait until tomorrow (May 1st) to Buy? Thank you​

Hi Airlift, You know.... If I had an extra IFT per month and it was the last day of month and I was seriously considering buying on the very next day ( first day of month), I would use that IFT just to be set up in the funds I want for the start of the next month... save myself an IFT for that following month to provide myself more opportunity/flexibility.

Of course if your technical indicators are not quite to a "buy" signal and you are at end of month with that remaining IFT, that is risk to use it.

That is what is so hard about the incredibly stupid limitations that TSP places on us. No one in their right mind would want to trade using the limited IFTs we have and yet we are doing it and some are doing very well. Definitely hats off to them. Its not easy. Not only with the limited IFTs but that we cannot even put in the buy or sell at precisely the moment we want to during the day. We virtually have both hands tied behind our backs. Insane!!!!!

Now as for wanting to be invested in May for a few days. I am taking approach to be invested as long as the indicators and daily price action look good. So I am not necessarily going to exit just because historically the rest of May is bad. I think last year it stayed good until at least mid-May or so.

Today I did not exit even though my indicators say I should (yes gone off script). So I really would not be surprised if we nose dive tomorrow or early next week, because I've seen price drops after the 20 daily EMA is pierced. I really don't like to say that.... so I am knocking on wood, but really I would not be surprised. Then again, this time is a little different because we really have not gotten into a nice channel to drop out of, and we are trying to dig out of a hole...so not sure the same indicators apply and will work as what i observed in past......so it remains to be seen. Now, I stayed in only because I think some of drops these past few weeks have occurred because of the issues in Ukraine and QE.

I really have gone against my strategy by staying in market today. But I justify my insanity only by saying, I think that the market has been affected by Ukraine (downward --hoping that is shortlived and that it will rise again), and that it could be affected upward by the FOMC meetings and their long term policy. I say that only because it seems Yellin wants to keep the market propped up and their last meeting minutes made it very clear they were no longer using a single indicator to make decisions on QE. So, it is sending out a "positive" message that they want to keep the market propped up. Since markets were up today, I have to think that what they said today was positive as well... will need to read up on that this evening.

Of course, once market fear takes root and "reality" sets in, I can see a big flash crash happening. But who knows when that will happen...No crystal ball here!! :worried: So I am trying to use that 10/20 daily EMA cross over PLUS looking at candle stick actions piercing the 20 day EMA (provided we are in a nice uptrend channel) to spot a possible flash crash. That is all I have... no telling if it will be effective in spotting that in advance. Now if I could just stick to the plan!! I've not fared well because I keep straying from the plan, but I am working on it.

Best wishes DBAnnie

P.S. Nothing I say is intended to be "financial advise". Listen at your own risk!!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Another roller coaster this morning, but at least it's heading up!! Crossing fingers and hoping it does not go over the top....if so we can all scream together on the way down!!! :nuts:

 

[nnuut]

What is it that Mariners say? Up in the morning Traders take WARNING?

 

[ravensfan]

Annie,

24 back and moving up. I've been here before so I'll quietly keep flapping my wings and see if I can get a little closer...caw caw!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Annie,

24 back and moving up. I've been here before so I'll quietly keep flapping my wings and see if I can get a little closer...caw caw!

Hi Raven, I see you!! If the S fund can take flight should be hearing you soon...caw caw!!

Keep those sharp eyes of yours on the look out! It could be that there will be a massive stampede leaving the market now that we are in May. Really would like to see S fund get into an uptrend before the exodus and hopefully time that exit just right....ahead of the stampede!! But That might be a little tough to gauge.

 

[ravensfan]

Hi Raven, I see you!! If the S fund can take flight should be hearing you soon...caw caw!!

Keep those sharp eyes of yours on the look out! It could be that there will be a massive stampede leaving the market now that we are in May. Really would like to see S fund get into an uptrend before the exodus and hopefully time that exit just right....ahead of the stampede!! But That might be a little tough to gauge.

Yes, that will be the key; to get out ahead of the stampede. Love your use of the word exodus. It's so biblical. And who will lead the children of TSPTalk to the promised land? JTH, Bquat, the mighty Birchtree or is there a sleeper out there? I just hope we don't end up wandering the desert for 40 years...

 

[ravensfan]

Yes, that will be the key; to get out ahead of the stampede. Love your use of the word exodus. It's so biblical. And who will lead the children of TSPTalk to the promised land? JTH, Bquat, the mighty Birchtree or is there a sleeper out there? I just hope we don't end up wandering the desert for 40 years...

Uh oh Dreamy. My simple moving average database for the C Fund shows the 20 day SMA has fallen below the 50 day SMA as of COB today. 20 day = 1862.46, 50 day = 1862.72. That is not a good sign for the C Fund. Also, the F Fund set a new high today of 108.70 for 2014.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Uh oh Dreamy. My simple moving average database for the C Fund shows the 20 day SMA has fallen below the 50 day SMA as of COB today. 20 day = 1862.46, 50 day = 1862.72. That is not a good sign for the C Fund. Also, the F Fund set a new high today of 108.70 for 2014.

Uh oh is right! Let's seeeeeeeee... Hummmmmm.. Will market tank Monday???

I'm going to hope not. Best to you! DBAnnie