DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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I'm a newbie so sorry in advance if these questions are obvious.

DBA, I see you're 100% in the G fund. Just curious why you didn't put some in the F fund? Do you expect that to drop a lot in the next few weeks?

Also, I thought there were only 2 interfund transfers per month before having to go into the G fund, yet your signature tag line shows 4 in September, the 4th going 100% G. I assumed that the 3rd ITF in a calendar month had to go 100% into G, but I guess that's incorrect?
 
Hi Nat,

Sept 10 I entered market, Sept 19 I reallocated and then the next 2 IFTs in September I just gradually started to decrease my equities and going into G Fund.
After you have used your 2 IFTs in a month, you can move as many times as you want to reduce exposure to the market by moving into the G fund. (freebie IFTs).
So you can do it bit by bit. I really do not like doing that, but I do it sometimes because I am afraid of picking a bad day to get out... since we must place our order by Noon ET, there are 4 hours left of trading and a lot can happen during those hours to drop the market unexpectedly. This has happened to many folks.. and it really stinks.

As for the F fund, it was in a serious downtrend earlier this year. It had a Death cross down (50 MA dropped below 200 MA) back February and then started to rise back up in mid-Julne to mid-Aug to cross back above it but then started dropping again and now seems close to having another Death Cross... plus, I just really have never had much luck with the F fund. So that is why I went to G instead of F. Many say the F fund leads the equities in direction, and I always thought it was suppose to gain when equities are losing but that is not always the case. I also don't see a pattern of behavior, not that any do, but I feel uneasy with it and so I tend to stay away from it.

NatInPW said:
I'm a newbie so sorry in advance if these questions are obvious.

DBA, I see you're 100% in the G fund. Just curious why you didn't put some in the F fund? Do you expect that to drop a lot in the next few weeks?

Also, I thought there were only 2 interfund transfers per month before having to go into the G fund, yet your signature tag line shows 4 in September, the 4th going 100% G. I assumed that the 3rd ITF in a calendar month had to go 100% into G, but I guess that's incorrect?
Click to expand...
 
Here is a 4-month Daily AGG (F fund) chart. As for your question about whether it will go up a few weeks? I do not know. No one can be certain what the market will do.
But looking at the chart I see that the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA - on this chart is a red line) is hitting the 100 SMA (brown line) to cross below it. That is not a great sign at all. While it is moving up (Stochastic sloped up rising from 20) that might be a good short play … a few days for it to get to 80...BUT also notice price action is hitting the mid-point (dotted line) on the Bollinger band... that is the 20 SMA and that looks like it might be a resistance point for moving up further plus price is now also at the October high of a week or so ago and that looks like a resistance point as well. IF it can move higher past that, then maybe you get a nice little rise there for a bit longer. The MACDs have rising slope and above 20 so that looks good ... again maybe a few days up. But today's candle looks like it is forming a wick on top of the body of candle and that indicates that folks were buying at a price higher than the opening price and that is formed the wick intraday, but other folks stopped buying at those higher prices and so asking prices has come back down below the opening price...that is a bit bearish---bears beating the bulls today so far as day is not over. But no crystal ball on this. Might check and see how it does tomorrow morning... see how the day finishes or just jump in a bit and close your eyes!!! lol …:)… but I would not do that.... seriously... but that is just me.

Best wishes to you!!!!! :)

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Mcqlives said:
No jumping here! Can't see into the water to check for rocks....
Click to expand...

DA,

Curious of what resources you use to conduct your analysis on the market? I've lose a significant amount staying in S Fund since beginning of October and now jumped ship into G to stop the bleeding. So many determining factors to deal with right now, I think I'll stay G until midterms are announced. Thanks for your support.
 
Hi Catak, Sorry to hear about your loss. I am still trying to dig out of a hole I fell into in Spring so I feel your pain. That primarily happened because I kept "hoping" market would go up and was ignoring the charts (doubting myself) and I let fear and emotion rule my judgement....not too smart! All I can say is jump back in as soon as you think a bottom is in. that is the tricky part. I do not plan to get in until after the elections, but if I see charts starting to look like they have bottomed I may get in earlier. Just depends. I am also now sticking to my strategy and trusting my reading of charts.

I use the 4-month daily charts that I have posted (permalinks that update constantly) at page 185, post 2217 & 2218. I think you can copy the links. If you get a chance, see the chart at post 2216--it is scary accurate!!

The DAILY charts for C, S, I and F funds include Bollinger Bands, Exponential Moving Averages, RSI, Stochastics, and two MACD settings that I think work best for the type of trading I like to do (short). I look at support and resistance and EYEBALL the trend lines on other charts I keep for 8-month and 1-year daily pricing. On weekends, I look at Weekly Charts, 3 years for a broader view.

I also look at other charts such as Transports (TRAN), Dollar (UUP), TNX (10-Year Treasury Yield), VIX, OEX put/calls (!PCRATOEX), msci momentum factor (MTUM), Nasdaq composite ($COMPQ) which is a overall market breath indicator.

I read the Ira Epstein financial end of day report, Right Side of the Chart videos and GROK trade videos all posted on TSPTAlk by Nnutt!! Thanks Nnuutt!! Read miscellaneous financial articles each day and listen to Fox Business News... Maria Bartiromo for a few mins each morning and ALWAYS listen to her 30 minute Wallstreet show on Fox Business News that comes out each Friday evening, and listen Charles Payne daily (record it---per FBN and watch it each night). If possible, I also look at 15 minute Intraday charts for our TSP funds to see how that action is going--check it at lunch time.

I also read the posts that others on this site post... many folks here that give very good information about markets, their read of the market, tables showing earnings for past 15/60 days, and links to good articles, etc. I never fail to read the TSP talk commentary and CoolHand's posts! They are great and very insightful!!!

If you cannot spend a lot of time or do not wish to get that involved, Tom C has a great Premium Service (TSPTalk Plus) using sentiment and there are a couple other good premium services that are not very costly on this site.


Hope this helps. Best wishes to you and everyone!!!!!! :smile:
 
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OH... and just to make it clear. By finding a bottom, I mean a short term bottom where we may have a very short relief rally... to jump in and out very quickly to make a little coin. Very risky. I think the real bottom may take another month or two... so like many folks, I do believe we are still going to trend down a little longer. Until the Bollinger Band mid-point (20 SMA) starts to slope up, that is when I will start to think things are really going to get back into an uptrend.

I tend to think this whole thing is primarily due to interest rate fears induced by Fed. So their coming out to say something like, we are going to take it easy on future rate hikes, etc . … that could cause market to reverse quickly and move back upward. Obviously other items in news like tariffs and EU is having some effect, but I still think it has to do with interest rates. That has a huge impact on consumer sentiment, buying and debt service and borrowing costs, AND ultimately earnings and revenue. That is a SOLID, QUANTIFIABLE AND REAL IMPACT.
 
I thought it was going positive around an hour ago but looks to be dropping again. Wish that would turn around by COB. :(

For now, I am looking forward to a nice quiet weekend. I am feeling happy on this Friday, and hope you have a Great Weekend! :dance:

Best Wishes to everyone!!!!!! :)
 
Hello, The Ira Epstein morning flash was very informative this morning.... about coming events this week ...market movers. Comments on China interesting...also, he did not mention, but we do have big earnings reports from Facebook Tuesday after the close, and Apple on Thursday. after the close.
Nnuut --thank you for those posts!! :banana:


Best Wishes to Everyone!!! :smile: DBAnnie
PS. Yes.. still "planning" to stay out of market until after election. Will see.....

nnuut said:
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Good Morning!! :smile: To enter or not to enter? That is the main question this morning.

I looked at charts last night. Obviously looks like a little rally. I noticed its a sharp rise. In fact everything has been sharp .... sharply down twice in October with a sharp rise towards the end and volatility magnified. So, while the charts say I should enter.... actually they said that about 2 days ago, but had no IFT..... I keep wondering:
--What will happen tomorrow since Apple reports after close today?
--Will something else be said about China tariffs (that is not sounding too promising)before I get in and out?
--Will GOP lose the house and senate?
--When will the Italian budget raise its ugly head to spook Europe? (no pun intended.... :dance:).
--Should I just enter and try to stay "short-term long" (LOL...) because it could be the worse is over (for a couple weeks :blink:)?

Then a light bulb came on!!!!! :rolleyes:

What does that whacky little chart I posted on page 185 say? It has been scary accurate... so to speak. So here it is. I think I will look at it, look at charts again for the millionth time and continue to chew on a hard piece of jerky!!! :laugh:

Enjoy! ...and best wishes to you all!!!!!!!! :smile:

P.S. So far I read this whacky "average trading pattern" chart to mean get in after election and get out 4 days before month's end. Then re-enter about 1 week into December and get out a few days before end of December. Anyone else see that??? just wonderin….. hum... I think I will stick to my original thought... get in after election but only if our real time charts and current strategy say yes. But getting in today is very enticing..... don't be greedy DBA. Stick to the plan.

DreamboatAnnie said:
This article was posted in a TSP Newsfeed yesterday. Link to article on Market Watch by Sue Chang. But what I found interesting was the last chart in that article, "Average Trading Pattern After A Hgh Made In Augustfor S&P 500... inserted below. Not sure how much weight I will give it, but it indicates when August provides good returns, September tends to follow suit early to mid-month before it drops towards end...while October then provides the larger weakness... hummm……. :rolleyes:

I am trading based on current strategy and technical indicators... but the chart is interesting!
Good evening and Best Wishes to you all!!!!!!!! :)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/key-contrarian-indicator-falls-to-9-month-low-as-stock-investors-grapple-with-heightened-global-risk-2018-09-04?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

View attachment 43524
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That chart is crazy accurate. Considering it got made around September 5th (or even earlier?!?!) it is down right astonishing!
 
DBA, RSOTC is posing the possibility that this bounce will be sold by folks caught in the first leg down, and end in lower lows... as his most likely scenario. I may bail today...
 
Rethinking an entry.... maybe go in 50%??? Sheeeezzzzzzz...40 minutes...… uggh. Indicators look good but we are already 3 days into this rise.
 
Thanks Whipsaw!! :smile: That definitely makes sense. I am going to stick to original plan--enter after election. Or wait until just around election day if there is a drop. If market drops day before election, I may enter then.. will see.... sticky feet on the Lilly pad!

Also, something to consider.... what about Apple earnings after COB today... if good, then market may go up some tomorrow... but what if it also comes out with estimate on revenues for future based on China tariffs... then maybe it goes down.... I really do not know... just thinking out loud.

But I think your exit today is definitely something to consider. Sometimes a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush! Best wishes to you and CONGRATS to you on earnings these past few days!!!! That is quite goooood!! :D

Whipsaw said:
DBA, RSOTC is posing the possibility that this bounce will be sold by folks caught in the first leg down, and end in lower lows... as his most likely scenario. I may bail today...
Click to expand...
 
I just went all in C Fund COB today. Thought long and hard. Not gonna bet against Apple. My gut says they beat this afternoon and take the market up. Also placing a bet that the Republicans have a big win next week and don't want to be out of this market when that happens.

But I am nervous! :)
 
That is good logic. I tend to not want to go against that either. So I am going to stay open to buy day before or on day of election.

Seems that many believe House will flip and that will have a neutral effect on market because it will continue grid lock and not much will change. I tend to think it would go down--but that is just me.

If GOP gets both houses, I think it goes up a lot and Ira Epstein also thinks that. Why? A continuation of what we have had for two years to bring confidence to business and markets, plus tax cuts 2.0.

If they lose both houses, I tend to think market goes down because tax increases would be up the road and ramped up gridlock.



1965Vintage said:
I just went all in C Fund COB today. Thought long and hard. Not gonna bet against Apple. My gut says they beat this afternoon and take the market up. Also placing a bet that the Republicans have a big win next week and don't want to be out of this market when that happens.

But I am nervous! :)
Click to expand...
 
1965Vintage said:
I just went all in C Fund COB today. Thought long and hard. Not gonna bet against Apple. My gut says they beat this afternoon and take the market up. Also placing a bet that the Republicans have a big win next week and don't want to be out of this market when that happens.

But I am nervous! :)
Click to expand...

If I was still working and dollar cost averaging I would be all over that for the same reasons
 
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