DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Hi Whipsaw, You might want to read my post again... I have been revising it...lol! :smile: But I am done now. The market is definitely strong and I would rather be in the market more than being out.... it continues to climb... but I have now committed to following the 4-month charts and trying to not let emotions rule.

I do think it is important to listen to what is going on... sentiment is important. But I also am now starting to believe that market "sentiment" does divulge itself in the market moves... you can read that sentiment in the intraday candles, daily candles and the indicators capture this as well. Obviously there are always some knee jerk reactions to be ignored. But looking at weekly charts, then daily and then intraday is good. Gives a balanced sense of market and where it is going... I am also paying a lot more attention to support and resistance zones. Bottom line: I am following the charts.

Also, FWIW, noticed XLF financial sector ETF has had some large moves downward which has affected the overall market. Looks like that might be ready to start moving up?? so that might help in the next few days, but again, I do not know what the driver is on that. Last week XLF was strong and helped the market. I think it was pricing in the rate hike. Not sure why it started dropping this week...but it has impacted overall market.

Best wishes to you and everyone on your investments!!!!!!! :smile:

ADDED: LINK TO XLF
XLF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com
 
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HI WS, Looking at S fund daily chart, it is holding at Support zone (1464-1472) so it could go either way and the Slow Stochastic is down around 20 so that could indicate its near its bottom??? Like I said, it could go either way... :blink: But S fund does look like its making lower lows and lower highs... so I kinda like I and C funds better....although I fund starting to look tired.

P.S. Thanks for info on TRSOC's bearish take. I'll keep that in mind when I view those vids. Yes... market is powering through and I think it will continue to do that, but I am expecting some weakness SOMETIME in October... no telling when. But when it does go down, I want to have an IFT ready to jump in. :D

Whipsaw said:
Thanks DBA! Appreciate the summary, his vids can be long; even when increasing the speed :D I've found him to be quite bearish, which has impacted my risk tolerance and limited exposure when I should have been in (being on travel didn't help either :cheesy: ). At any rate, I've been tracking his divergent tops, and the re-balancing that was supposed to happen this month due to the realignment of what stocks will make up the NAS (??)... It almost seems that the market is powering through with the strong economy providing a wind at its back. The rate hikes may have a longer term affect, time will tell. At this point, the S is up a little after a week of declining... maybe its rolling over?
Click to expand...
 
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woo...hoo...It's Friday..... A little music to start off the day right! Hummm... Michael Jackson! great music and dance moves! Just love him! :D. Hope you have a great day!


 
No entry for me today. Charts still don't look promising. I will wait to see evidence of a bottom. I think we are still in an overall bull market, but at least for the short-term we are trending down. It just seems like it could stand to lose more before it starts back up...S Fund price is still hugging the lower band and has not moved away from it. With todays intraday action, we are nearing the bottoms of June and July. So will it stop there or drop more? Don't know.

So FBN has reported that drop is due to increasing 10-yr interest rates and I tend to agree it is kind of a knee jerk reaction on that which may pop back up but I am also thinking folks just want to pocket some gains before the elections. I had hoped to make some coin in October but not sure if that will happen and I am thinking a quick 2-3 day entry, exit is what I will do once I see a bottom.

Best wishes to you all!!!!! :) :dance:
 
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Is the Kavanaugh vote going to affect the market? Not sure …. doesn't seem like todays continuation vote has affected it.. But, either way, it should bolster each side for a November showdown and that outcome will definitely affect the market. I would think that a Democrat majority in house means no chance for a 2.0 Tax cut. I feel confident the market would not be happy about that, but that is just my personal opinion. With all this going on, I just plan to stay out of market during November until the election is over... or at least that is my thinking now.

Hoping to see a bottom soon to make a little coin in October! :)
 
HI UQ. Yep … that is basically what I said, that vote or his confirmation has nothing to do with the market. I said, "not sure... doesn't seem like todays continuation vote has affected it." However, it will polarize each side regardless of outcome. Only the actual mid-terms will affect the market. My point is that I do not plan to be in market when the election happens.
 
After looking at yesterday's closing charts, I am not seeing a lot that is different although there are slight indications we are nearing a bottom---but I am not holding my breath. Everything is still trending down short term (obviously) and that is still carrying on today. So I will stay out until I see something more positive, but there seems to be some hope.

The MACDs (settings 5,9,2 and 5,9,9) continue to be crossed below their signal lines; although lines for S and F look like they are getting ready to cross positive and others are moving in that direction. The MACD histogram bars are showing very slight movement upward... and see this on all charts: (visual) the red bars are getting smaller (less red) and thus moving upward very very slightly. So as of now, it looks like we are nearing a bottom (within a few days????? and of course anything can happen). The clearer negatives are price is dropping, touching or sliding down the lower Bollinger band, the 3 day EMA is below 5 day EMA, mid-point line of Bollinger band are sloped down (S and F fund) or flat, and Slow Stochastics in the case of S Fund is embedded under 20. I really am not thinking to enter until I see something strong. Intraday charts are looking interesting.. equities clawing back up...will see how the day finishes.

Best Wishes to Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!! :o

My chart links: DAILY 4 month charts at page 185 (posts #2217 & 2218) and 1-hour Intraday 45-day charts at page 186 post #2227
 
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Gosh... what a difference one hour makes. The daily chart for S is forming an engulfing bullish candle, and C fund is even going positive. Humm….. also notice that yesterday volume was not bad and both S fund did form a candle with long tail. Could this be turning around??? Is it too early to enter today???? Would that be following my strategy---can I justify it with the charts ??? What about a partial entry??? :scratchchin:
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Gosh... what a difference one hour makes. The daily chart for S is forming an engulfing bullish candle, and C fund is even going positive. Humm….. also notice that yesterday volume was not bad and both S fund did form a candle with long tail. Could this be turning around??? Is it too early to enter today???? Would that be following my strategy---can I justify it with the charts ??? What about a partial entry??? :scratchchin:
Click to expand...

The pop up is fizzling/fizzled. Without a surge to the positive in the next 45 minutes (very doubtful) I'm staying on lily pad. My guess is that any follow through to give us a direction, up or down, will happen this afternoon.
 
Mcqlives said:
The pop up is fizzling/fizzled. Without a surge to the positive in the next 45 minutes (very doubtful) I'm staying on lily pad. My guess is that any follow through to give us a direction, up or down, will happen this afternoon.
Click to expand...
Hi Mcqlives… I Agree! This market is crazy (as usual). I just glanced at the DOW on FBN...and its reversing/dropping like you said... and then of course after our cut-off, things always change! But looking at charts, they are still up...well... C, F and S are up while I is down. But...An entry at this point would be risky.... so I am still thinking about it. But leaning no or at most a partial entry of maybe 40-50%... still thinking about partial entry but …..ugghhh… I am just not sure...


Wishing you and everyone the Best!!!! :D
 
LOL...you crack me up. Just my 2 cents if it helps you....I have 2884-2888 penciled in as the deciding range (right where we are). 2896 has to clear for bulls to run and 2856 and 2818 are my picks for lower floors. Also, check out ^DJT.
 
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LOL....well... I am arguing with myself!!!! :laugh: Agree with support and resistance zones. I really would like to buy a little right now but I am going to wait.... I can also see price pulling away from those lower bands to go up a bit and then dropping a bit more (for a true bottom) before it moves back up.... will see if that happens. Of course I will be tempted to enter on the bounce. I hate this market! ! :cheesy:

Mcqlives said:
LOL...you crack me up. Just my 2 cents if it helps you....I have 2884-2888 penciled in as the deciding range (right where we are). 2896 has to clear for bulls to run and 2856 and 2818 are my picks for lower floors. Also, check out ^DJT.
Click to expand...
 
Looking at the C fund...bounce at the 2838 area!?!? This is the short term high hit on August 14 (head pattern?)....not making much sense but buyers are starting to bite...
 
Hi Mcqlives, ok...I see. Yes we are at about 2838-2840 area. here is chart for SPX= S&P 500 which C fund tracks. The level we are at now (intraday hughlight) is at support we saw around Aug 15 and resistance near July 25. If this support area does not hold, we probably drop to around 2820 as next support area, followed by 2790-95. I think reason to jump in now is to get a good price, that is why I was considering a partial buy-in, but it is looking like its not over yet. someone on FBN was saying you could start to get more downside due to many invested using margin, as well as interest rate increases (i.e. More costs to service debt, etc which affects future revenues). Now the margin calls are scary and could cause a pile down... :(. Of course and as usual they start talking about that after it is going down...ughhhh...

P.S. i am not seeing head pattern.....lol...maybe its just me...
Mcqlives said:
Looking at the C fund...bounce at the 2838 area!?!? This is the short term high hit on August 14 (head pattern?)....not making much sense but buyers are starting to bite...
Click to expand...

image.jpg
 
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And now the 2818-2820 is getting piled on. My guess is that stupid money is bailing fast this afternoon. The question is, will that bleeding continue past tomorrow? Time to re-chart with this as the pivot day. My problem is that I still like the fundamentals and expect good earnings reports and am itching to buy at these prices...but am second guessing everything.
 
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