Doug Kass

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Kass: 15 Surprises for 2012

"There are five core lessons I have learned over the course of my investing career that form the foundation of my annual surprise lists:
  1. how wrong conventional wisdom can consistently be;
  2. that uncertainty will persist;
  3. to expect the unexpected;
  4. that the occurrence of Black Swan events are growing in frequency; and
  5. with rapidly changing conditions, investors can't change the direction of the wind, but we can adjust our sails (and our portfolios) in an attempt to reach our destination of good investment returns."
 
Kass is a pretty valuable guy to follow. He missed his call at the beginning of the year, but he owned up to it and examined what he did wrong. At the beginning of 2011 he called for a flat year and he got that right exactly.

Overall, he thinks economic growth is slowing, everywhere, and it will catch up to us in the U.S. soon and a downturn in the market is coming. So, for now, he is a bear and focuses on bearish news. Even if you don't agree, there's a lot of value in listening to both sides.

I have a lot of respect for ppl who make a public fcst on anything. They get criticized a lot by ppl who are never brave enough to put their own necks on the line. Twitter definitely enables those creatures.
 
Too bad Kass will never tell us what's in his personal portfolio. I'll bet he's a buy and hold.
 
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