Dollar Direction ^ V or >

[Bullitt]

As Jim Rogers on CNBC continues to brainwash unknowing investors into believing that 'everybody is bearish the dollar', Jason says just the opposite. Once again, another example of how investors should NEVER make an investment decision based off of CNBC and would be best served not watching it.

Small Speculators are now the net longest they've been since February/March when the buck was topping out.

View attachment 7604
www.sentimentrader.com

 

[mudigha]

I believe that 2010 will follow historical trends to the T. First months we will have a strong dollar. However, I still see strength in the I. As the S&P and Nas will be mixed.

 

[Bullitt]

More from Jason. Count me out of this long trade.

Speculators are now more net long the US Dollar than any time in history. They currently hold 88% of all open long positions.

 

[JTH]

More from Jason. Count me out of this long trade.

I see you've resurected a classic! I was going over my price performance comparison charts last night and noticed the inverse relationship is not as strong as it once was when compared with Gold, Oil, and the S&P 500.

I'm not ready to close the curtians on the dollar but we do have some compelling information on the comparison charts. The Dollar has an MACD crossover with its 1st negative tick against the Euro
View attachment 7871


The Dollar shows the most strength against the Yen, but the MACD is declining.
View attachment 7872

Same story as the Euro for the Brittish Pound.
View attachment 7873

 

[Bullitt]

The US Dollar looks to have completed it's fib shakeout and is ready to resume its march onward.

View attachment 7972

 

[tsptalk]

Breakout from bull flag in Dollar...

 

[mayday]

Dollar looks to me to be headed down.

http://tinyurl.com/24z9zb

 

[tsptalk]

That bull flag is actually a pretty bullish pattern, although a similar double bull flag pattern didn't work out well for the housing index...

 

[Bullitt]

The influx of alleged speculators made me initially believe that this dollar rally would fizzle out quickly, however, with the massive amount of short covering and carry trade unwinding (such as Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Brazilian Real selling) I think this dollar rally has legs.

The big players are stepping into the buying game.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...buy-dollar-reserves-from-market-update1-.html

I think the stock market along with gold put in the highs. Tops are a process. Where will all that hot money go to once it bails from India, China and Brazil? More dollar bull food: Be prepared for tightening from India.

World stock markets are rolling over. The second commodity unwinding is currently in process.

 

[Bullitt]

I might catch some flak for this one but bull markets do spend more time in overbought territory than a bear market does.

View attachment 8219

 

[Birchtree]

I've been patiently waiting for the dollar 80 level. This level has always been bullish for the economic recovery and a stronger equity market at least from a historical standpoint.

 

[tsptalk]

Look for the dollar to pullback to 79 - 79.5 next week to give the stock market a few days to rally. Then support will be tested, as will the S&P 500's overhead resistance. Could be a good selling opportunity - unless the both break.

 

[JTH]

I might catch some flak for this one but bull markets do spend more time in overbought territory than a bear market does.

View attachment 8219

I'll add my Slow Sto is embedded, & we are approaching a 50/200 EMA Golden Cross. It's not a great time to be in the I-Fund when folks are running into the dollar...

View attachment 8220

 

[Bullitt]

We got that bullish 50/200 cross.

 

[Bullitt]

It appears the dollar has made some kind of bottom and investors are already selling the black Friday news. The dollar has been rising well before Korea did their thing so don't trip on that excuse. Also, don't use the excuse that China is raising margin as a reason for the drop in commodities.

The problems are still there (or have gotten worse) in Ireland, Dubai, Greece, Portugal, Spain... oh and I almost forgot- the US.

What kills me is for so long everyone was saying 'buy stocks because of the dollar correlation'. Well, we got the dollar rising, but the media has brainwashed investors into thinking that black Friday will save every problem in the world, even though it may bring in $20 billion tops which is a drop in the bucket towards a multi-trillion dollar economy.

I've got head and shoulders tops nearly confirmed or confirmed in AUD, CAD, GBP, EUR, Greece Stock Market, Gold, and Oil. These patterns didn't start to form when Korea started their laser show either.

I am still a deflation bull and will remain that way until car dealers cut out the $3,500 discounts, Mickey D's and Starbucks stop giving out free coffee, and retailers begin selling items without having to induce customers with major sale incentives. As long as the dollar rises against all other majors, inflation is not possible.

Long live the dollar, it will not go to zero like all Gold bulls would like you to believe.

 

[hessian]

I am still a deflation bull and will remain that way until car dealers cut out the $3,500 discounts, Mickey D's and Starbucks stop giving out free coffee, and retailers begin selling items without having to induce customers with major sale incentives. As long as the dollar rises against all other majors, inflation is not possible.

Hey Bullitt, nice analysis. I'd just question Oil - seen the price of gas in this last week?!
"They" really play us for dumbies/suckers, and know we are powerless to challenge their hikes - and "they" do take advantage every holiday opportunity.
I suppose its primarily the taxes that "they" hike - hoping this will help clear our nat'l debt. :cheesy: It hasn't been reflected in the price of Oil.
VR
Just courtesy, note NNuut's "Oil thread" today: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=290898#post290898

 

[crws]

Hey Bullitt, nice analysis. I'd just question Oil - seen the price of gas in this last week?!
"They" really play us for dumbies/suckers, and know we are powerless to challenge their hikes - and "they" do take advantage every holiday opportunity.
I suppose its primarily the taxes that "they" hike - hoping this will help clear our nat'l debt. :cheesy: It hasn't been reflected in the price of Oil.
VR
Just courtesy, note NNuut's "Oil thread" today: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=290898#post290898

Start at 15:45

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTdLgtzD9eU

 

[Bullitt]

I'm still of the opinion that the dollar is making a long term bottom. In the face of major deficits, precious metals euphoria, and the conventional wisdom claiming that the dollar will be debased, I remain a dollar bull.

Venezuela openly debasing their currency but the US is not.

View attachment 10390
bigcharts.com

 

[fedgolfer]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UDN&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p98789750763

UDN appears like it will stay below the future red cloud... which means the dollar will conitnue upward (not good for I fund). US indices lookin' like they'll rally with a stronger dollar... repatriation going on. Still a lot of days left in January and we need a Friday close in the weekly Q's to confirm a breakout in the Naz.

 

[FAB1]

never mind.