fabijo
Well-known member
Semper Fi
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Divot's Account Talk
- Thread starter Divot
- Start date
Semper Fi
Divot
Member
New Blog Post
Keep your eye on the ball
You may have heard - there was some big trouble in Shanghai yesterday. They're at it again: the Shanghai SSE index was down over 5% earlier in today's trading, but has recovered somewhat to about 3% south from the open.
Shanghai is - honestly - irrelevant to how I manage my money...
Read the rest of the blog post to understand why.
Keep your eye on the ball
You may have heard - there was some big trouble in Shanghai yesterday. They're at it again: the Shanghai SSE index was down over 5% earlier in today's trading, but has recovered somewhat to about 3% south from the open.
Shanghai is - honestly - irrelevant to how I manage my money...
Read the rest of the blog post to understand why.
Divot
Member
Increasing strength... you sure it wasn't "BUY in May"?
Increasing strength... you sure it wasn't "BUY in May"?
Bottom line up front: Short term indicators strengthened today. No reasons to move away from stocks.
Read the rest of the post for a discussion of my favorite market gauge.
Increasing strength... you sure it wasn't "BUY in May"?
Bottom line up front: Short term indicators strengthened today. No reasons to move away from stocks.
- Fund allocation is currently 20% G / 70% S / 10% I.
- My YTD gain is 5.7%.
Read the rest of the post for a discussion of my favorite market gauge.
Divot
Member
New Blog Post - Chasing Returns
What's more important: Winning bigger or losing less often?
Time for a mid-year checkup of your Thrift Savings Plan account. How are your retirement plans doing? ...
I think this post is some of my best work, take a look for yourself.
What's more important: Winning bigger or losing less often?
Time for a mid-year checkup of your Thrift Savings Plan account. How are your retirement plans doing? ...
I think this post is some of my best work, take a look for yourself.
Divot
Member
Cracklin' new blog post!
The (un)importance of Shanghai
Lots of discussion on China lately. After all, the Shanghai sell off at the end of February was to blame for our own markets' dip at the end of February... right?
Read the rest on the blog...
The (un)importance of Shanghai
Lots of discussion on China lately. After all, the Shanghai sell off at the end of February was to blame for our own markets' dip at the end of February... right?
Read the rest on the blog...
Divot
Member
New Blog Post - Tomorrow will be a telling day
Warning Signs Ahead
The last two days in the markets have been really interesting - tomorrow is really important. If this is just a little temporary dip in a continuing uptrend, we'll know it tomorrow. So far, all we've seen is a 1-2 % pause. So, the Bottom Line Up Front: if the markets decline out of the gate tomorrow morning, I will scale out of stocks to a 50% Government bond / 50% Small Cap allocation.
Peruse the rationale at my blog:
Warning Signs Ahead
The last two days in the markets have been really interesting - tomorrow is really important. If this is just a little temporary dip in a continuing uptrend, we'll know it tomorrow. So far, all we've seen is a 1-2 % pause. So, the Bottom Line Up Front: if the markets decline out of the gate tomorrow morning, I will scale out of stocks to a 50% Government bond / 50% Small Cap allocation. Peruse the rationale at my blog:
Divot
Member
Yep - that's kinda what I thought we'd see
Rather than the 11AM buy programs, today we're seeing the 11AM sell programs. This doesn't smell like Mr. Retail Investor to me. I said last night I'd consider going 50% Small Cap / 50% Gov't Bond. Based on what we're seeing (and at the risk of getting whipsawed a second time this year) - I'm going 100% Gov't bond as of close of business today.
Rather than the 11AM buy programs, today we're seeing the 11AM sell programs. This doesn't smell like Mr. Retail Investor to me. I said last night I'd consider going 50% Small Cap / 50% Gov't Bond. Based on what we're seeing (and at the risk of getting whipsawed a second time this year) - I'm going 100% Gov't bond as of close of business today.
Divot
Member
New Blog Post
Swoop, there it is
For all those expecting, waiting, holding their breath, knowing it was just around the corner... this was your correction. If my calculations are correct - it may actually be just the start of something more substantial.
Read the rest of my scintillating analysis on my blog!
Swoop, there it is
For all those expecting, waiting, holding their breath, knowing it was just around the corner... this was your correction. If my calculations are correct - it may actually be just the start of something more substantial.
Read the rest of my scintillating analysis on my blog!
Divot
Member
New Blog Post
A day early, and a dollar short
After my last post, and the market's Friday rally, some might be waiting for my public retraction and repentance from all thoughts bearish. I hate to disappoint my readers... but don't hold your breath.
Read the rest of my post to understand why...
A day early, and a dollar short
After my last post, and the market's Friday rally, some might be waiting for my public retraction and repentance from all thoughts bearish. I hate to disappoint my readers... but don't hold your breath.
Read the rest of my post to understand why...
Divot
Member
Blog Post for Tuesday's Markets
No, no - you go first
Buyers and sellers had on their best poker faces today. No one really wanted to lay anything on the line, which is interesting from both the bullish and bearish points of view.
I'll be making a change to my allocation effective today. Read the rest at my blog.
No, no - you go first
Buyers and sellers had on their best poker faces today. No one really wanted to lay anything on the line, which is interesting from both the bullish and bearish points of view.
I'll be making a change to my allocation effective today. Read the rest at my blog.
charmed855
Member
Great calls on the market this week. Keep it up!
Divot
Member
New Blog Post - Knife Catching
Read my new blog post, Knife Catching, for my discussion of why I'm now in the F Fund.
Read my new blog post, Knife Catching, for my discussion of why I'm now in the F Fund.
Divot
Member
New Blog Post
Sometimes you can be right and wrong
As the title of my post suggests, I was right about interest rates - and my move to the AGG (F Fund) was well served. Boy, I would have been more profitable in any of the other stock funds, though...
Read the rest of my post for this weeks "Mid-Week Mid-Life Crisis of the Week".
Sometimes you can be right and wrong
As the title of my post suggests, I was right about interest rates - and my move to the AGG (F Fund) was well served. Boy, I would have been more profitable in any of the other stock funds, though...
Read the rest of my post for this weeks "Mid-Week Mid-Life Crisis of the Week".
Divot
Member
New Blog Post - Bias and Self Validation
Bias and Self Validation
It's important to look at the markets without bias. Being unaware of one's own bias can result in at least missed opportunities, or worse, swimming upstream with a poor risk/reward profile. For most, it's tough to avoid a "bullish" bias. This is, of course, the predominant "retail investor" perspective. This perspective on the markets believes that the only way money is made is for prices to rise.
Read the rest of the post at my blog, where I discuss expectations and game plans for this coming week.
Bias and Self Validation
It's important to look at the markets without bias. Being unaware of one's own bias can result in at least missed opportunities, or worse, swimming upstream with a poor risk/reward profile. For most, it's tough to avoid a "bullish" bias. This is, of course, the predominant "retail investor" perspective. This perspective on the markets believes that the only way money is made is for prices to rise.
Read the rest of the post at my blog, where I discuss expectations and game plans for this coming week.
Divot
Member
New Blog Post - Asking the right question makes all the difference
It's not a question of why - but what
I've skimmed quite a bit of market analysis this afternoon/evening. Ask ten analysts why the market sold off lower today, and you'll get at least 15 opinions. Their opinions - blame interest rates, oil inventories, whatever - are irrelevant. It doesn't matter WHY.
The important thing is WHAT happened today.
I'll explain the rest in my blog post.
It's not a question of why - but what
I've skimmed quite a bit of market analysis this afternoon/evening. Ask ten analysts why the market sold off lower today, and you'll get at least 15 opinions. Their opinions - blame interest rates, oil inventories, whatever - are irrelevant. It doesn't matter WHY.
The important thing is WHAT happened today.
I'll explain the rest in my blog post.
robo
Well-known member
Divot,
Any opinions on Kevin's comment on a double top formation. I agree with him that this summer could be tough for stocks. Kevin is a daily read for me.
http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/
100% G Fund in my TSP account, and swing trading in my brokerage accounts. Closed out all shorts today. Made some money following Atilla this week at xtrends. Also a daily read for me since I'm a trader/investor and respect his work.
http://xtrends.blogspot.com/
Friday, June 22, 2007
Stocks Sell Off As The Bears Take Control
Today stocks sold off sharply with the dow down 185 points. For the past two weeks I've been posting as to why I didn't want to be long stocks. In fact, I'm short and we're now starting to see downside momentum pick up.
Above is a daily chart of the dow. It appears that a double top formation has taken place and an important trendline was broken today.
Notice on the last two down days how the volume has increased which helps confirm my bearish outlook.
Many of the interest rate sensitive stocks that I have short are leading this market down such as the utilities which I will post about later.
I'd like to stress one more time that I am NOT looking for a crash in the market...I just feel this summer we will see stocks consolidate and trend lower and I'm sure at some point in a few months there will be a good opportunity to buy stocks. Yesterday I pointed out that I'm watching the Asian stocks for potential longs if we get a good dip in the market....but as of now I am all short.
http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/
Any opinions on Kevin's comment on a double top formation. I agree with him that this summer could be tough for stocks. Kevin is a daily read for me.
http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/
100% G Fund in my TSP account, and swing trading in my brokerage accounts. Closed out all shorts today. Made some money following Atilla this week at xtrends. Also a daily read for me since I'm a trader/investor and respect his work.
http://xtrends.blogspot.com/
Friday, June 22, 2007
Stocks Sell Off As The Bears Take Control
Today stocks sold off sharply with the dow down 185 points. For the past two weeks I've been posting as to why I didn't want to be long stocks. In fact, I'm short and we're now starting to see downside momentum pick up.
Above is a daily chart of the dow. It appears that a double top formation has taken place and an important trendline was broken today.
Notice on the last two down days how the volume has increased which helps confirm my bearish outlook.
Many of the interest rate sensitive stocks that I have short are leading this market down such as the utilities which I will post about later.
I'd like to stress one more time that I am NOT looking for a crash in the market...I just feel this summer we will see stocks consolidate and trend lower and I'm sure at some point in a few months there will be a good opportunity to buy stocks. Yesterday I pointed out that I'm watching the Asian stocks for potential longs if we get a good dip in the market....but as of now I am all short.
http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/
