Stocks saw minor losses yesterday after Wednesday's big Fed triggered rally. The Dow lost 40-points, the S&P 500 slipped a couple, and small caps and the I-fund were not spared. The Nasdaq did manage a small gain thanks to strength in Apple. Bonds dipped as yields moved up slightly. The dollar saw a bounce.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 310"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 162"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0070%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.17%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.08%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
A day of rest is certainly nothing to be concerned about after the week and month we've seen so technically there really isn't anything to read into the small losses on Thursday.
The S&P 500 (SPY) dipped but remained in good shape, although arguably extended. There are still open gaps, but they are now below the breakout level, which could act as support.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The longer-term chart of the S&P 500 index shows some resistance at the current level which is at the top of a shorter-term trading channel that began last spring (red). But it is also right in the middle of the longer-term rising trading channel (black).
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Depending on the size of your crayon, the big gains on Wednesday did push the Russell 2000 over the very long-term rising resistance line briefly, but it closed right on the line yesterday. Still a possible road block, but since it is rising, the Russell could stay below the resistance line without moving lower, but eventually the resistance will break or we'll see a more significant pullback.
Data provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The sentimenTrader.com smart money / dumb money confidence indicator shows the dumb money above the 60 level again, which is a warning sign but the smart money is still above 40 so there's no red flag yet.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bond yields bounced a little on Thursday off of the 50-day EMA. That created a small loss for the F-fund. There's more room for yields to rally as Wednesday's drop fell sharply through support, but there is some resistance between 2.80% and 2.85%.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Fed's out of the way and told us there would be no tapering. You have to wonder if they were concerned about the continuing resolution passing, and the debt ceiling negotiations. That's what's on tap for the next few weeks and the market will likely rally and fall on these headlines.
In today's TSP Talk Plus report we'll take a look at the smart and dumb money put / call ratios which are doing something that's rare, and interesting, and the recent change in the sentiment survey.
For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
