Deflation Watch

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dang!
my ninja loan lender is oob

Hey- ps.
My experimentation with quadruple witching week netted me + 1.972%. That's with 20% F & 80% S.
Monday & Tuesday were up, W,T,F shrunk slightly each day.
I'll take it.
 
"After a period when much of the focus had been on price promotions and major sales events, it appears, as evidenced by Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s (WMT) recent performance, that increasingly price may no longer be enough to influence customer purchases," said Michael Exstein, retail analyst at Credit Suisse.

Wal-Mart, despite being a low-price leader, has been seeing its U.S. same-store sales fall since last year. The retailer is trying to counter the situation by reducing prices even further.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100621-710189.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines
 
Boghie said:
Deflation is here!!!
Excepting fuel and food!!!

What a joy. Folks will be outa work, there will be $5 gas, and grub will be pricey.

How about that Hope and Change:p
Click to expand...

Deflation?

Or hyper-inflation ($5 gas and grub will be pricey).

Which is it?
 
James48843 said:
Deflation?

Or hyper-inflation ($5 gas and grub will be pricey).

Which is it?
Click to expand...


James,

We are in deflation. Increased prices in fuel and food will be made up by laying off more people and automating more tasks. Or, by simply not hiring more folks. You can easily have most of the economy deflating while having a subset inflating.

And $5 gas is not hyper-inflation...

But, a home losing 50%+ of its value is deflationary...

And, there is always the option of stagflation:)
 
Bullitt said:
This is deflationary and may soon come to a town near you.

http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jul/29/local/la-me-furloughs-20100729
Click to expand...

Furloughs, the threatened kind, always make big headlines but I'm wondering how often they actually happen in the public sector, and then what the impact is. For instance, I wonder if employees actually furloughed can use annual leave, banked or advanced, to cover the lost days, or if subsequent actions pay them back, or any other maneuver that results in no real loss to most employees?

What happened to the pay of the federal employees that were furloughed not long ago from a few agencies? Did they all actually lose dollars?

I think private sector layoffs make much less news and actually impact real people but the news media can't focus.
 
WarrenLM,

In Kalefornea they furloughed State employees last year. I think it was two days a month. This year there will be three days per month. It actaully happened - not just a threat. It is real. It is a 10% pay cut.

You DO NOT get paid for the furlough days. You cannot take annual leave to get paid on furlough days (I can check on that, but I am 99% certain). There is NO payback to cover the salary when things get better.

Also, much of the part-time staff has been laid off in Kalefornea. My LibTard State of the Little People used part-time staff to avoid the huge benefit packages demanded by union contracts. Whoopie, no healthcare for lots of employees. So good for the Little People. So WallMart like.

Here it is in a nutshell...

There is NO money.

Even with the furloughs Kaleforea ran a large deficit. The game is over here on the left coast - but Illinois may beat my LibTard state down the crapper. Kindof a competition:p


As far as the Feds. We got back pay for the 1995 gubmint shutdown. Kinda dumb. However, things are very different now. All those folks in tri-pointed hats and 'Don't Tread on Me' signs want to slash government expenditures. If furloughed DO NOT count on getting back pay.

Warrenlm said:
Furloughs, the threatened kind, always make big headlines but I'm wondering how often they actually happen in the public sector, and then what the impact is. For instance, I wonder if employees actually furloughed can use annual leave, banked or advanced, to cover the lost days, or if subsequent actions pay them back, or any other maneuver that results in no real loss to most employees?

What happened to the pay of the federal employees that were furloughed not long ago from a few agencies? Did they all actually lose dollars?

I think private sector layoffs make much less news and actually impact real people but the news media can't focus.
Click to expand...
 
these are the charts in the back of my head all the time any more....

http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-comparisons.html?mega-bear-quartet-real-extended

http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-2000-comparisons.html?mega-bear-2000-extended

and here's what people are doing quietly, while there is still time. (not guns and ammo, but realistic steps just the same, and ones that can make sense even if the worst doesn't happen).

http://www.financialsense.com/contr...t-should-i-do-the-basics-of-resilience-part-1
 
Alevin,

This chart (HT: DoctorHousingBubble) shows the trend line for inflation - and hence, deflation...

consumer-price-index.png


It ain't lookin' good. We should be experiencing 70's era inflation right about now. The Fed should be ratcheting up interest rates. Democrats should be whining about the Fed affecting the election. In actuality, not so much.


This chart (linked to CalculatedRisk) scares me more than anything else I have seen. It demonstrates that we are in very rare territory when it comes to job recovery after a 'recession'.

alevin said:
these are the charts in the back of my head all the time any more....

http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-comparisons.html?mega-bear-quartet-real-extended

http://dshort.com/charts/mega-bear-2000-comparisons.html?mega-bear-2000-extended

and here's what people are doing quietly, while there is still time. (not guns and ammo, but realistic steps just the same, and ones that can make sense even if the worst doesn't happen).

http://www.financialsense.com/contr...t-should-i-do-the-basics-of-resilience-part-1
Click to expand...
 
Howdy folks,

I have found a great inflation/deflation site. It is InflationData.com.

The numbers in the chart are YOY inflation rates by month of year.

The interesting factoid is that YTOD (Jan - Jul) we have had only 0.75% inflation.

The rate from Aug 2008 to Aug 2010 is -0.4%

That, folks, is very close to deflation.

And, we are decelerating.


Note: The chart pointed to is YOY for the month. The far right column is tha annual inflation rate (note that last year we faced deflation). Poke around. Kinda a neat site.
 
When the bond vigilanties start to roll the bond market over - that will be the first sign of inflation worry. Enjoy the merits of deflation while you can - there are benefits, especially if you have steady income. Keep the folks tied up in bonds out of stocks for as long as possible - their time will come to move back to stocks once the Dow has gained its previous highs at 14,154 - then the rush to invest (get me in at any price) will propel the market to even higher highs.
 
Birch,

That is one reason why I am starting to get out of the 'F Fund'.

I just wish we could invest in REITs and commodities.

Do equities behave well in inflation?
 
Historically equities have been a good hedge against inflation because companies can increase their prices and therefore maintain their profit margins. If inflation gets too high the only relief is gold. But a moderate degree of inflation is good for stocks.
 
Sears is offering Black Friday sales early... really early. Ask yourself- Is this inflationary? Would they do this if supplies were low? Would they do this if they didn't have to? Why should I buy now when prices will be even lower on Black Friday?

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/mon...ack-friday-shopping-deals-sales-specials.html

The inflation talk is picking up some steam lately. That means it's a good time to take a look at the deflation trade again.
 
Bullitt,

Bernanke is doing everything he can to inflate. We are in deflation. He just keeps blowing air in a leaky balloon.

And, our 'Economic Black Swan' of a President blew his (uuuuhhhhh) last year rather than wait for when it may have become necessary. Now, there ain't nothin' left...

I think Bernanke has managed it about as well as possible. If he didn't have a kludge of economic neophytes interfering day and night with strategies that only work in ‘Soviet Five Year Plans’ or Chicago Law School dissertations we probably would be in recovery now.

Instead – Wreckovery!!!

Living Grandpa’s Dream!!!
 
The smartest minds in the business are dropping prices as they know what's really going on in the economy. Don't take the false signals from the gold bugs.

I think I'll make my wishlist now and then wait a while to buy.

Sony and Samsung now face the prospect of a ‘miserable’ Christmas amid an all-out price war. In fact, forecasts from the world’s four largest TV makers signal that the industry won’t capitalize on the biggest sales quarter of the year. Analysts predict price declines of as much as 25% in 2010.

Target, the second biggest retailer behind Wal-Mart, has said it’s going to lower prices on more than 1,000 toys. Wal-Mart has responded with its own discounts.
Click to expand...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...le-christmas-sales-as-tv-price-war-looms.html
 
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