Danny's Account Talk

[Danny]

Just stumbled on Rule #2, So, here goes...

Today I added to my equities position with my 2nd IFT of Dec.
Went from:
C 10%
S 40%
I 10%
F 40%

To:
C 20%
S 60%
I 20%

Been trying to take into account all the various signals and opinions posted on this board and move into 2013 with a better understanding of how to grow my retirement account. Was a buy and holder, then started watching TSP funds regularly early to mid 2012 with less than 1% YTD in gains starting in the autotracker. I ended up in the hole after one bad "all in" trade that went south. It was my first attempt go 100% into anything and it dumped and I jumped. Lesson learned...since then I have made plenty of incorrect entries and exits but at least they were well thought out... @#$%!. Lately I've managed to bounce up and down gaining 5%, losing 5%, and now just seem to be edging up little by little with each trade. Currently I have made a few good choices and am hoping to get out of 2012 with 6-7% gain and clear the $100k mark in my acct.

Thanks to all that regularly add their insights to the board throughout the day and especially those that post minutes before IFT deadlines. It really helps to know what others are thinking!

Regards,
Danny

 

[Danny]

Still all-in so happy with today's +++gains!

Now the question is can we climb into a santa rally or is that just what they (the pros) want us to think just before they strip us of our last bit of profits and our TSP shackled dignity before 2012 ends?

 

[Danny]

Anybody experience the following error during the 30 min leading up to todays IFT deadline?
[TABLE="width: 730"]
[TR]
[TD]The website is too busy to show the webpage[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HTTP 408/HTTP 409

I had to trade blind today! to make it more itchy I can now see that just as I was pulling some off the table...a lot of accomplished folks were going all in! Oh well, we'll see??? Happy Holidays folks!

Danny

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[sniper]

i think the forums were down for a little while, but seem fine now (obviously haha)

happy holidays to you as well, and welcome to the forums

 

[Danny]

Thanks Sniper! Your are the 1st person to reply to my Account Talk!

:>{D

 

[Frixxxx]

Anybody experience the following error during the 30 min leading up to todays IFT deadline?
[TABLE="width: 730"]
[TR]
[TD]The website is too busy to show the webpage
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HTTP 408/HTTP 409

I had to trade blind today! to make it more itchy I can now see that just as I was pulling some off the table...a lot of accomplished folks were going all in! Oh well, we'll see??? Happy Holidays folks!

Danny

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Usually when the markets are moving, volume to this site increases exponentially. Remember that markets tend to move in trending fashion, so with the churning that has been going on the past few weeks, people have been waiting to see if they are positioned properly. Remember, it's about moving with the trends, most of the time it's never about catching the 'absolute' top/bottom.

But glad to hear you're making money! Hope you didn't allocate your position during this trend to go too conservative. Birchtree is predicting good things!

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Birchtree is predicting good things!

Um, Birchtree is ALWAYS predicting good things... Not sure how accurate that makes him?

 

[Birchtree]

I've been in the Ralph Acampora camp - he believes the big cap stocks are in a new bull market, and the markets continue to climb the proverbial 'wall of worry'. He sees the financial stocks leading the way currently, and bonds in bubble territory. Ralph also notes many individual and institutional investors are on the sidelines, which is the wrong place to be. Snort.

 

[Danny]

But glad to hear you're making money! Hope you didn't allocate your position during this trend to go too conservative. Birchtree is predicting good things!

Yes, I am afraid I am playing this up swing to conservatively, but I have stayed too long in past trades this year and did not get out without losses, so I am willing to take a little pain watching everyone else make money this holiday as long as I can take a little gain today and hit my 2012 goal of a $100k TSP balance. Its gonna be close with today’s anticipated gains! Next year I hope to see the forest from the trees and trend more than follow signals.

Today I start out with my game plan of staying in until after Christmas dip or not...and then panicked at the TSP deadline thinking the site is clogged with everyone taking profits with their 1st Dec IFT and then waiting for a dip with the option of going back in for a late Santa Rally with their 2nd IFT. As it turns out it looks like most folks were going in today. At least I left 30% in so I still hope the best for equities!

Thanks for the come back!
Danny

 

[Danny]

Thanks for the comment Birch...I am a loyal lurker of yours~!

Will I have time to catch the wave come Jan 1st?

Thanks,
Danny

 

[Birchtree]

Tony says we are in a new multi-decade Supercycle bull market - so you'll have many years to build your base. We will never see 2008 prices again which means you'll have to pay up over time to accumulate shares. I'm an evangelical buy and holder and this market is going to make me wealthy. That's my destiny with a dollar cost averaging approach.

 

[NiteFlyer]

I screwed up the last two times the market crashed and held stock onthe way down. 2001 and was it 2008? Cost me a bunch of capital. Counting my max deposits and the matching 5%, I'm up 22% since 1/1/12. I'm a little over 5% away from breaking $400K for the first time. I'd love to break $.5M by this time next year. Still just over 10 years before minimum retirement age (although if I could have afforded it, I had the option of a VERA VSIP two years ago with 25 years in and any age). I appreciate all of the analysis several people on this forum has done and really enjoy reading the posts. Good luck to all of you.

 

[Danny]

NiteFlyer, You're way ahead of me...I'm 52 with 12 years in. Don't have the extra money to invest so I need to learn how to time this stuff better if I ever want to retire!

Danny

 

[NiteFlyer]

If we are entering a multi-decade bull cycle, hopefully you can build up the capital quickly by compounding double-digit percentage returns.

 

[Danny]

Anybody put in an IFT at exactly 1200 EST and have TSP post it for the following day? My GOV computer clock printed the confirmation at 1200... I suppose if tomorrow is up I would not complain but I would like to have this corrected as intended for an IFT COB today the 10th not tomorrow the 11th.
Does anyone think or know if I called them tomorrow and explained, they even consider posting it for the day I intended even if it was that close (within a few seconds) ?

Thanks,
Danny

 

[JTH]

Anybody put in an IFT at exactly 1200 EST and have TSP post it for the following day? My GOV computer clock printed the confirmation at 1200... I suppose if tomorrow is up I would not complain but I would like to have this corrected as intended for an IFT COB today the 10th not tomorrow the 11th.
Does anyone think or know if I called them tomorrow and explained, they even consider posting it for the day I intended even if it was that close (within a few seconds) ?

Thanks,
Danny

I suppose antyhing is possible if you try, although I don't know of anyone who has done this.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Anybody put in an IFT at exactly 1200 EST and have TSP post it for the following day? My GOV computer clock printed the confirmation at 1200... I suppose if tomorrow is up I would not complain but I would like to have this corrected as intended for an IFT COB today the 10th not tomorrow the 11th.
Does anyone think or know if I called them tomorrow and explained, they even consider posting it for the day I intended even if it was that close (within a few seconds) ?

Possibly, if you have proof. They can talk you down so be wary of that. I've had similar problems as well with them. You know, making moves right at or just before the 1200 o'clock hour that somehow didn't go through. Happened to me during the years where we had unlimited moves. Just another reason to buy and hold, or make IFTs well before noon EST.

 

[Danny]

Thanks JTH...By the way hope you are feeling better!

I do not post much, but I read your threads and a hand full of others every day...especially if I am thinking of making a IFT. I was on the fence about jumping out today and ended up fighting a computer that was locking up at IFT time. I did end up deciding to leave half in and hope for a few days riding the bolinger band before I took it all to G...out of IFTs for Apr.

So looking at the flat futures tonight and thinking I may not win the fight with the TSP folks about making my IFT good for COB today, what are your thoughts on maybe grinding a bit higher tomorrow as opposed as a sell off tomorrow leading into all the news/data coming at us in the next few days???

BTW, thank you for the charts you supply to the board members, especially the hatched areas and annotations you use illustrate your points. Between you, MrJohnRoss, and Bquat I feel I can see where we are going next!

Regards,
Danny

 

[Danny]

"JimmyJoe said: Just another reason to buy and hold, or make IFTs well before noon EST"

Yea, I'm in California so ITF by 0900... real busy at work with meetings and visitors the mornings...my phone for some reason wont let me put in the TSP password at login so I get stuck racing to my desk when I need to make an IFT. It is a giant POS that more often than not lockups and of course reboots are always part of the process when using the interweb thingy at work...go figure.

Anyway, thanks for the input! and I swear, you are Birch's long lost twin. If you two ever meet in person I bet you would finish each others sentences without skipping a beat! That's a complement BTW...

Regards,
Danny

 

[JimmyJoe]

"JimmyJoe said: Just another reason to buy and hold, or make IFTs well before noon EST"

Yea, I'm in California so ITF by 0900... real busy at work with meetings and visitors the mornings...my phone for some reason wont let me put in the TSP password at login so I get stuck racing to my desk when I need to make an IFT. It is a giant POS that more often than not lockups and of course reboots are always part of the process when using the interweb thingy at work...go figure.

Anyway, thanks for the input! and I swear, you are Birch's long lost twin. If you two ever meet in person I bet you would finish each others sentences without skipping a beat! That's a complement BTW...

Regards,
Danny

Making an IFT go right, or wrong, is sometimes our doing or it's the people at TSP. It can stink but learn from it as I think you will. You're in it now and the futures are bright today, so are they for the next month, and more, all the way to the end of the year. As for me being Birchtree's twin I can only say that I've learned from the master. I actually didn't like his style for many years. But now, at this time, I've come around. I don't have nearly the market technical insights he has but I have very similar feelings about this market as he does. There are several others on this board that bring up very positive facets about this market, mostly good points. All I do now is sift through the posts and intake the positive market lines of discussion. It's all coming together for those who invest now and for me. I am retired but because I can focus on this present market I can see clearly how it is moving today. I'm also healthier than I've been for a long time, eat vegetables, fruits, occasionally some tuna, drink only water, etc, and this equates to a stronger outlook on this market, a better life. It's like a natural law. A better life is what draws to me the gains I get from the market, and for me this is more important than just getting gains from the market, which in the past, didn't work out so well. It was not as profitable as it is for me today. Anyway, keep positive about his market. It has not nearly reached its inflationary level "top". Look for the SPX to reach 2000 within a year or two.