DaddyTin's Account Talk

[DaddyTin]

Though I am a day behind between my TSP and TSPTalk allocations (didn't get the account validated until after 12EST), I hope to get the synch on track soon.

I have been watching support and resistance levels on the S&P chart. Last week, I was looking for a W to form but a breakout occurred at 1940. I jumped in the C and S for an initial 20% each as volume was not indicative of a true climb out. Still, the close yesterday is within my 'Resistance Becomes Support' target.

BTW, doubled my positions in the C and S today due to the move this morning up to 1950. March 1 - 6 is the reportedly best week for stocks in the year.....easy smeazy to return to G if needed by Friday.

First post......thanks for the info already in the recent posts and archives.

 

[DaddyTin]

As volume in the S&P is decreasing while the last three trading days have been up, I expect a down day soon. However, the lows have been higher than previous lows.

What I am tracking before I bail from C and S back to G......

Resistance at 2010 or so (coincides with the 200 SMA). Support at 1940. With today ending around 1980, there is room for a down day but not a bail day.

The time for the index to get to 2010 may not be in days, but I had prepared for Triple Bottom before the chart broke to the up side last week.

I remain 20/40/40 in the G/C/S.

 

[DaddyTin]

Maintaining the 20/40/40 in G/C/S as I watch the assault on the 200 dma. The main tool to measure the 'octane' in the climb out is the NYSE Advance/Decline Volume Difference ($NVLF).

Beginning this morning and carrying through 11:50 am EST, the Advancing volume remained high and exhibited an upward slope. Thing could change, but for an IFT, nothing more to do but hold on to the rails as soon as noon bangs on the clock.

The 'octane' to carry the short term rally into something that overcomes the long term downward trend does not seem to exist. No catalyst. China, oil storage, and other factors are not supporting a higher 'octane'.

Trying to research just when a jump from C/S/I into F or G is warranted. What are the decision points/inputs toward my second IFT being a pump into F or plucking the safe G string (yes, I play some guitar at times).

 

[rspring]

Thanks for your posting. I agree with the idea of a pullback but if anyone is looking to see what has changed about this market may want to look at the S fund performance over the last couple of weeks. The S fund led us down and now appears to be leading us out (IMO). I've been 45%C, 45% S and 10% I since 24 Feb. and S has way outperformed the C fund. I feel there are many on this forum that have been on the wrong side of the current market condition and will help keep it moving up for a while.

 

[DaddyTin]

With the S&P flailing in the mid to high 1980s, I have also been tracking the $NVLF. So far, all stocks being sold today are being sold lower than the previous price (declining issues), but the overall index is not dropping out of the 1980s.

A wonderful chart (I have yet to crack the CHART POSTING steps) is the $NVLF 4 day. Thursday was an up day, so nearly all transactions were advancing issues. Friday and Monday paints a mixed, but a tide-turning picture as the declining issues began to overtake advancing issues, especially in the mid afternoon.

Consolidation is always good. Price stability even though all prices are lower than previous day's prices is good. All is good. CAVEAT: The afternoon is blind to my IFT.

 

[DaddyTin]

Too many factors pointing to an exit.....so I pulled dropped the F bomb on my second official IFT for the month. Now nothing but pushing the G string left for my TSP account.

Increasing volume on the declines in the S&P, the braking of a support at 1980, overall trend down, and lows lower than previous lows.

By COB, I am 100% F.

My tsptalk account took a day to start, and my TSP Tracker account for the month began with the allocations from my Feb IFT. I added a TSP Tracker IFT today which, to the TSP Tracker, may look like my third in March. But officially it is my second.

 

[DaddyTin]

Another up day for the S&P was bringing me more pain over F'ing my C&S holdings. Then, I look at the AGG and see a rise as well. This was some sunshine for us F holders currently.

Standing by for a bail to the G!

 

[DaddyTin]

Geo-political pressures on the markets are driving futures lower prior to markets opening. S&P opens slightly lower, but looking for more pressure today. Decided to keep my F IFT from a G diversion today.

 

[DaddyTin]

Finished my first month with TSPTalk. Thanks to the those that are posting, replying, putting charts on the forum, and allowing different strategies to be presented.

Now on to my first FULL month in TSPTalk, with my account in full F mode.

I am not a certified master in candlestick patterns, but I do frequent www DOT americanbulls DOT com. I had subscribed back in my active trading days pre 2010 but now just check out the recommendations based on the pattern.

AGG is STAY LONG, S&P is STAY LONG, USO is STAY IN CASH. Based on these and some of the wonderful offerings in other's Account Talk postings, I will hold my IFT for April on the Scrabble tray and play it a little later in the game.

Until oil is delinked from the dollar and the stock markets, the charts of USO is one input into a decision tree not as deliberative as burrocrat's ARK, et al.

Happy April. Tilled our little garden last night and will begin some plantings inside for some of our plants. I have a hankering to go hydroponic to increase the harvesting ratio.

 

[DaddyTin]

While still camped in F land, I do get the jitters as I see higher highs in the short term for C, S, and I. However, the volume matching those highs has been declining. Much is said over how bad the economic data is, and that the fundamentals are not tracking a bull market, yet technical indicators have highlighted some support for higher markets.

I am now looking at when I am pulling my tent stakes and checking into a good G Fund hotel. Bad weather, in the form of earnings reports, has been forecasted. Yet, sunny skies have prevailed. I need to have a plan so that I don't have to play bumper cars out of the wilderness area.

 

[DaddyTin]

Typical. SOOOOOO typical. One behavior up to just after the clock strikes noon, and then the pattern on the TV changes. With the IFT deadline tagged to that noon-strike, the afternoon becomes unforeseen and ominous. Not a hint of will power in my TSP account to think things will get better, so maybe a lot of short covers going on here.

Standing by in the F. I dropped from the 120's to the 330's in the ranking. What some pump up in the C, S< and I will do to an F'ing TSPer.

 

[DaddyTin]

AGG hits $111! Woo hoo!

 

[DaddyTin]

Moving to G fund for a camping experience

Done with the fluctuations during Fed minutes revelations and oil supply disconnects. Going to camp in the G for a while. I will add that too much variance is introduced in the afternoon to make any IFT in confidence towards higher gains. Ooops, that was a long sentence!

 

[DaddyTin]

Good time to buy?

Looking at the bust of the 200 day moving average to determine an entry point back on the carrousel.

 

[DaddyTin]

Just when you think you remember the important stuff, the TSP password doesn't work. Wait an hour, try again. Get busy, try in the afternoon. Still not working. Try the next day, hoping to get in an IFT between a root canal, wisdom tooth extraction, and pre-cap work. But no. No talk-ee, no type-ee, just want to nap all day for the novocaine to wear off.

So now I have my password down pat, and the entry point has gone by 'like a dead cat on a trampoline' (John Ross quote in a Whipsaw thread).

 

[DaddyTin]

Back at a possible entry point. Markets tried to regain levels after a 2% drop but began today heading south. Again. Going to look at an incremental entry with 10% in each of the C, S, and I today. Ready to pull the plug but want to add another IFT to this percentage if we get more downside.

More talk about the economy is not strong enough for a Fed rate hike, and that growth is stymied. I am going contrarian just to see if this can make a change in my 877 positional standing. Riding the G does not help the yield rate!

Happy September to all. October is soon to be here (go away in May, don't be seen until Halloween).

 

[DaddyTin]

Moved to 30% in both C and S, with a reduction of G to 30%. 10% remains in the I for the gray horse lined up on the outside post.

Even with that deep cut below 18K on the DOW previously, resistance became support just above 18K. Hanging my play on that technical observation in a purely subjective manner.

 

[DaddyTin]

Day One after the Monthly IFT expenditures: At 11:20AM, the markets are light on volume but showing a gain. No Escape To The G today.

Dow Jones Industrial Average18,139.82 105.05 0.58 31.5M

AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
111.73 0.08 0.07 490,121

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
214.49 1.34 0.63 41.9M

EFA iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
58.03 0.29 0.50 4.5M

SPX S&P 500 Index
2,138.98 13.21 0.62 175.7M

ESZ6 E-Mini S&P 500 Future - Electronic Dec 2016


2,132.25 19.00 0.90 1.1M

 

[DaddyTin]

Road the wave of worry up to 2PM EDT and caught a whiff of fresh air at 2:15PM EDT. Keeping the 30/30/30/10. Not convinced the 100 I like FAB would role into the dough. I am not young enough and too close to retirement to risk more than I am already with the current mix.

Good luck during the September Summer Cessation. October is near.

 

[DaddyTin]

Been staying in this market since my entry point like our black cat sleeping on my Green Bay Packer velour blanket. There were some distractions, but the current picture is not too bleak.

Decline today at 11:40 has very light volume. Staying in the 30/30/10 C/S/I.

BTW, thanks to those that have served (post Veterans Day Monday!)

DJIA
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,846.16 -1.50 -0.01 37.6M

AGG
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
108.92 -0.33 -0.30 1.4M

SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
216.23 -0.19 -0.09 35M

EFA
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
56.53 -0.52 -0.91 7.1M

SPX
S&P 500 Index
2,161.21 -3.24 -0.15 267.8M

ESZ6
E-Mini S&P 500 Future - Electronic Dec 2016
2,159.25 -2.25 -0.10 962,779