czapor1967's Account Talk

[czapor1967]

Hello everyone,

it was suggested to me to make my own account talk thread, the idea behind this thread is that it will be a place for newbies to come and ask questions and hopefully get answers from some of the more experienced people on here. I feel I should let you all know that I am very new to managing my tsp and know pretty much nothing about the stock market or strategies for managing funds. I hope this thread turns into a decent learning tool for us all, and I really hope that some of the more experienced people will stop by and try to help all of us newbies out! Thanks for visiting my thread, please feel free to ask questions and/or post comments... we're all in this together, let's do this!

Chris

 

[eccougar]

Welcome czapor, there is a lot of good information from the posters on this board. Read the posts on the account talk and check tracker for recent ifts and after a while you will learn your way around the message board.

 

[czapor1967]

I'll start off by asking about strategies, what kind of strategy might I look into for myself? I'm 45 and have been in the tsp for about a year and a half. I started off all in the G fund, then I attended a Dave Ramsey course which suggested that people should go 60% C, 20% S and 20% I for the "long haul", so I did that for a few months, I then stumbled upon TSPTALK and while looking around found all kinds of different strategies. so out of curiosity wondered if my 60,20,20 plan was the way for me to go. I noticed on the AutoTracker that most of the top people are 100% S fund right now so I followed and did the same. I'm curious about "signals", what are these signals and where do I look to find them?
sorry for being long winded but as a very newbie I have no idea about these things.

 

[Sensei]

Welcome aboard. This is year number 2 for me managing my TSP. Hopefully I don't have a "sophomore slump". My first year was hard enough.

Anyway, when I started, I knew what bull & bear meant, but that was about it. Here are some topics I've found useful to look up on Google or Investopedia, and others with better computer talents might post links to threads here.

Bull vs. Bear market (how different people define them)
Pullback vs. Correction
Simple Moving Average (SMA)/Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Sentiment
Contrarian

That's just a scratch in the surface of this whole thing. Definitely read Tom's and Coolhand's blogs everyday, and read up on the rules of the Sentiment Survey - if for nothing else but to understand how sentiment effects the direction of the market.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

I'll start off by asking about strategies, what kind of strategy might I look into for myself? I'm 45 and have been in the tsp for about a year and a half. I started off all in the G fund, then I attended a Dave Ramsey course which suggested that people should go 60% C, 20% S and 20% I for the "long haul", so I did that for a few months, I then stumbled upon TSPTALK and while looking around found all kinds of different strategies. so out of curiosity wondered if my 60,20,20 plan was the way for me to go. I noticed on the AutoTracker that most of the top people are 100% S fund right now so I followed and did the same. I'm curious about "signals", what are these signals and where do I look to find them?
sorry for being long winded but as a very newbie I have no idea about these things.

Hi Chris,

Glad to see you starting your own members thread. In my opinion, your 60/20/20 plan is reasonable. You can hold that through good times and bad if you want, but you run the risk of losing a lot of money if (when) the market suffers a major downfall. There are several of us here at TSPTalk that use various indicators to create "signals" to get in and out of the market. As an example, I use the S&P 500 Index, exponential moving averages, the MACD, and the Stochastics Indicator to determine my buy and sell decisions. It's not perfect (no system is 100% correct), but has beaten buy and hold over the long term.

There are others that use other indicators like the VIX, timing bands, the price of copper and other commodities, last month / best month, 10 month moving average of the S&P, Seven Sentinels, etc. None of these systems are "wrong", we all just use what we believe help us get the best returns in our TSP accounts. You can also look at some of the premium services (which charge a small fee) to provide their signals to you.

You've made a good decision to join this forum and learn from some very smart people here. Take your time, learn as much as you can, and before you know it, you'll have a good idea on how to maximize the returns on your TSP account.

Best of luck to you,

John

 

[nasa1974]

czapor, Everybody has their own strategy and you will want to develope your own. The biggest thing you will want to wrap your head around is how much RISK are you willing to take. That will set up your strategy on how you invest your money. Read as much as you can and don't be afraid to ask questions. For as long as I have been with TSPTalk there have been a lot of suggestions but no one has said you have to do it this way. Good luck and have fun.

 

[WhoDey]

I hope your thread develops some traction and becomes a useful resource for newcomers. It can be overwhelming here at first. I joined last month and am still trying to wrap my brain around the fact that I need to have a "system" ... ?!?!

I know it can be intimidating to ask a question in a thread where everyone seems to know one another and have a lot of expertise, but all of my questions have been welcomed.

Good luck!

 

[Birchtree]

I've been hanging around this board with my buy and hold friends for almost seven years - and I still don't have a system, never had a system and probably won't ever have a system. I do however, have a feline investment adviser named Mindylou and she is great.

 

[nasa1974]

I hope your thread develops some traction and becomes a useful resource for newcomers. It can be overwhelming here at first. I joined last month and am still trying to wrap my brain around the fact that I need to have a "system" ... ?!?!

I know it can be intimidating to ask a question in a thread where everyone seems to know one another and have a lot of expertise, but all of my questions have been welcomed.

Good luck!

WhoDey, You really do not need "A System". I have been a member since 2008 and I don't have a system per say. In the beginning I tended to follow the leaders but tried to get a feel for the market and once in awhile I would move opposite of the pack. Sometimes I got lucky sometimes I didn't. Early on I felt more comfortable being split in the CS&I funds. Lately I have taken more of a risk and gone 100% S. It can have it's rewards and it's hazards. Like I mentioned before you need to asses how much risk you want to take but also you need an escape clause. At what point do you protect your assests (your comfort zone) and go to G, with or without an IFT for the rest of the month. Most of us have taken that down elevator way to long and had to take the slow ride back near the top. Don't let your position in the AutoTracker cloud your judgement. The AutoTracker is not a competition among members it just shows how members are thinking at that moment. No one in this forum will criticize you for a move you make from one fund to another. Good luck.

 

[nasa1974]

I've been hanging around this board with my buy and hold friends for almost seven years - and I still don't have a system, never had a system and probably won't ever have a system. I do however, have a feline investment adviser named Mindylou and she is great.

Birch, Don't confuse the newbie's with Mindylou.

 

[WhoDey]

nasa ... if not having a system can be, well, my system ... then I'm okay with that! I have been approaching the tracker as you presented ... using it as a window into the thinking of others. It helps to compare the tracker to comments made in these threads and begin to develop a sense of how people react to various market interpretations.

Birchtree ... if Mindylou ever decides to offer her feline services via the Premium route, let me know.

One question I'm struggling with now, is not so much a "system" question, but rather how to manage my resources. Do people pretty much follow their system regardless of the returns (up or down) or is there a place for locking in gains, retreating to safety, and then look for future trends to jump on? Do you try to hit a monthly/quarterly goal or do you try to take advantage of a current trend as much as possible? I didn't join the tracker until this month, but I did well in January. In February I decided to reduce my exposure and protect some of January's gains. One thing I'm learning to appreciate is my tolerance for risk. I'm willing to sacrifice the potential for larger gains in order to have some security.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

nasa ... if not having a system can be, well, my system ... then I'm okay with that! I have been approaching the tracker as you presented ... using it as a window into the thinking of others. It helps to compare the tracker to comments made in these threads and begin to develop a sense of how people react to various market interpretations.

Birchtree ... if Mindylou ever decides to offer her feline services via the Premium route, let me know.

One question I'm struggling with now, is not so much a "system" question, but rather how to manage my resources. Do people pretty much follow their system regardless of the returns (up or down) or is there a place for locking in gains, retreating to safety, and then look for future trends to jump on? Do you try to hit a monthly/quarterly goal or do you try to take advantage of a current trend as much as possible? I didn't join the tracker until this month, but I did well in January. In February I decided to reduce my exposure and protect some of January's gains. One thing I'm learning to appreciate is my tolerance for risk. I'm willing to sacrifice the potential for larger gains in order to have some security.

One of the things to note here is that everyone will have their own opinion on what they think works best. That's why the AutoTracker is good for really seeing who does well, and who doesn't. Keep in mind that some people just get lucky sometimes (not you NASA!), so look at their long term track record as well, if they have one.

WhoDey, some people do manage their resources, others are faithful followers of thier systems, and are either all in, or all out. I'm in the latter camp, but there's a lot of good to be said about reducing risk when appropriate. Others shoot for a quick 2% a month, then get out of the market until the next set-up, hoping to average 12% a year. Nothing wrong with that either.

You'll find a whole smorgasbord of ideas here. It may be overwhelming at first, but you'll soon find your niche.

 

[Birchtree]

The G fund is kindly known as the Lily Pad and is the safety valve. The Lily Pad was the name of a boat one of our deceased member moderators had. At your age you don't need security but risk inorder to improve your gains. Many investors miss the fact opportunity missed can be just as harmful to achieving investment objectives in the long term as money lost. My memory is so bad I can't remember the last time I was on the Lily Pad.

 

[czapor1967]

@MrJohnRoss, good morning John I noticed that your current signal went 100% G, could you explain why and when did you move to the G fund? I really appreciate everyone's help on this thread, thanks everyone!

Chris

 

[czapor1967]

so when you make a move on your tsp do you change both contribution allocations and make an ift? I'm confused because the first time I ever made a move I changed my allocations and did not make an ift and figured out later that my money was sitting in funds that I was no longer contributing to. is that a bad thing? I'm really not sure how it all coinsides... anyone?

 

[WhoDey]

Changing your contribution allocation is a separate action from an interfund transfer (IFT).

You have two unlimited IFTs each month ... meaning that you can move your account into and out of whatever funds you wish. After your first two IFTs, additional IFTs can only be used to move money into the G fund. The limit of two unlimited IFTs is why people are careful when they use them. Ideally, I think it would be good to be invested in equities to begin the month. You could then use the 2 IFTs to move out (#1) and back in (#2) if needed. Additional moves to safety (G fund) could follow if necessary.

There's also a noon ET deadline for making an IFT that you would like to be effective the next day.

Where you put your regular contribution is up to you. Right now, mine go into the G fund.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

@MrJohnRoss, good morning John I noticed that your current signal went 100% G, could you explain why and when did you move to the G fund? I really appreciate everyone's help on this thread, thanks everyone!

Chris

so when you make a move on your tsp do you change both contribution allocations and make an ift? I'm confused because the first time I ever made a move I changed my allocations and did not make an ift and figured out later that my money was sitting in funds that I was no longer contributing to. is that a bad thing? I'm really not sure how it all coinsides... anyone?

G'morning Chris,

My new timing system provided a sell signal yesterday. Although I won't disclose exactly how it works, I can tell you that it uses a combination of indictors... exponential moving averages, stochastics indicator, RSI, etc. It's been very accurate in back-testing. This will be my first use of the signal in real time. Take a close look at the performance chart on my thread that compares buy & hold vs my timing systems. You'll see that even though my systems are NOT perfect, they've done very well over the past few years.

As far as changing your contributions when you make an IFT, I'll leave that decision up to you. I usually change both, just to keep everything simple. I've done some statistical analysis on this subject, and it's really up in the air. Sometimes it's a little better to keep DCAing into your stock funds, other times it's better to build up cash and wait for the bottom before going back in. In the long run, it's probably not a huge issue either way.

Hope this helps, Chris!

Good luck!

John

 

[moeniogt]

Hello everyone, it was suggested to me to make my own account talk thread, the idea behind this thread is that it will be a place for newbies to come and ask questions and hopefully get answers from some of the more experienced people on here. I feel I should let you all know that I am very new to managing my tsp and know pretty much nothing about the stock market or strategies for managing funds. I hope this thread turns into a decent learning tool for us all, and I really hope that some of the more experienced people will stop by and try to help all of us newbies out! Thanks for visiting my thread, please feel free to ask questions and/or post comments... we're all in this together, let's do this! Chris

Let me explain in "street terms" ...tsp is like walking around a city that you don't know, there are different systems you can use to get around. You can follow people around, or ask people where to go, or just blindly walk around.......depends on what you do you will end up either in a good safe place or some crime-ridden ghetto. Which brings me to risk....the method you follow will have different levels of risk. So lets say you decide to follow some people and you end up with some dudes that want to kick your arse, and one of them punches you. At that point you can choose to run like hell and get out of there (get your money out and put it in the G fund)...or stay there and take a beating and a mugging (leave your money in C/S/I and watch it go bye bye). Or better yet...you can see you are headed into bad place and you never go there, this is where you get good at it and evade all risk. This website has people you can follow, you can ask, or you can get the tools you need to help you "predict".

 

[moeniogt]

But in all seriousness.....I am young and dont have as much into my TSP as most people do here, so I am being mega aggressive because I want to see my money work for me, in essence...I am pimping my money. But the closer you get to retirement and the more money you have to lose....then you might want to thing a little harder on how much risk you are willing to take. The people here are wonderful and help you out as much as they can.

 

[Birchtree]

It takes money to make money and the more shares accumulated the more money available to make money. Someone close to retirement has had many years of time in grade to accumulate shares. You can make hefty gains with 40,000 shares working in your favor - retirement is not the time to pull back. In retirement you have time to pay attention so fear can be controlled. TSP is an excellent mechanism to help fund an even better retirement - make it work in your favor.