Cully's Account Talk

[cully]

Bloomberg - Leveraged ETFs Face SEC Squeeze in Plan to Rein in Derivatives Leveraged ETFs Face SEC Squeeze in Plan to Rein in Derivatives - Bloomberg Business

FundXcellence

 

[cully]

Tweets from Wilshire Associates

Wilshire 5000 Rises $350 Billion with Fed Rate Increase
Posted on 16 Dec
Wilshire 5000 Falls $350 Billion
Posted on 17 Dec
Wilshire 5000 Drops $400 Billion for Day; Ends Week Down $75 Billion
Posted 18 Dec

FundXcellence

 

[cully]

Momentum is really the only "factor" we can exploit in the TSP. Even that is not "pure" momentum, having access only to market cap indexes. Enjoy this research paper by MSCI. Very readable.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0ByhQ-GFrf0FVMWdDci1QdUxwaWc

FundXcellence

 

[cully]

Found this interesting from the article https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2015/12/21/the-benefits-and-risks-of-target-date-funds-tdfs/



FundXcellence

 

[cully]

Putting the recent volatility in perspective.



FundXcellence

 

[cully]

Bloomberg - The Year Nothing Worked: Stocks, Bonds, Cash Go Nowhere The Year Nothing Worked: Stocks, Bonds, Cash Go Nowhere - Bloomberg Business

FundXcellence

 

[cully]

If you have not looked at the Blog http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/ - take a look. A very sophisticated look at the markets. You had better have a couple of hours though - very long posts - but worth the effort.

FundXcellence

 

[cully]

Good discussion on momentum by Cliff Asness - student of Eugene Fama (Factor models - e.g, value, size, etc.). Is momentum a Factor. Dr. Asness founded AQR. https://www.aqr.com/cliffs-perspective/fama-on-momentum
Lots of links for further reading.

FundXcellence

 

[cully]

Where

FundXcellence

 

[cully]

Great article on what we are up against - Robots. Makes one want to buy and hold or some very simple variation of that approach.

This Japanese Robot Calls the Market Better Than a Human - Bloomberg Business

FundXcellence

 

[cully]

Quite a long read, but as always excellent work from "Jesse Livermore" over at Philosophical Economics. This latest work will definitely have an impact on how I analyze the market in terms of my trendfollowing/momemtum analysis.

In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator | PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS

FundXcellence

 

[cully]

Good article on the benefits of using momentum in your selection of mutual funds from none other than Morningstar!

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0ByhQ-GFrf0FVR1V4SHIyRkFKa1E

FundXcellence

 

[cully]

I know many of us wish the TSP had more investment choices, but that may actually not get us much in terms of performance. A simple portfolio of the C,S,I and F Funds, with a 60/40 allocation beat virtually all the Large College Endowments - even the IVY league schools - and they can invest in ANYTHING!. Read on:

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/02/bogle-vs-golitath/

FundXcellence

 

[cully]

Good article on the TSP and the FERS retirement system in general, viewed from a private sector perspective. I especially liked the analysis of the Met-Life annuity option that FERS offers - food for thought.

How Good is TSP--the Federal Employees Retirement Plan?

FundXcellence

 

[Tsunami]

6.5% interest rate for TSP annuities? If that was true a lot of people would jump on it. Here's the true rate:
https://www.tsp.gov/whatsnew/Content/annuityRateIndex.html

 

[cully]

Yes I'm confused - they call the 6.5% a "PAYOUT RATE". I'm not sure that is the same as the interest rate you link to - may be. Can't find anything on TSP sight on Payout Rate.

 

[cully]

This is from the comment section of the article:

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]6.5% OF your balance... NOT a rate of return but a return of your own principal. Meaning, once you start your Met Life TSP Annuity it will take roughly 15 years before you actually receive a single penny of actual 'return' on that investment. In your own example - Compare the 4.5% return ON your investment as mentioned in the article and the TSP Annuity is one of the worst choices a person could possibly make... if it were only explained correctly here.[/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Like · Reply · Mark as spam · Mar 5, 2016 9:37am[/FONT]



[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Jim Russell Public Policy Professor at Portland State University
[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]I have a more favorable attitude toward annuities. Their purpose is to provide secure income that you will not outlive. I don't see them as investments per se. The only problem with the TSP annuity payout is that it is not as high as it could be if it weren't handled by a private insurance company.[/FONT]

 

[Cactus]

I tend to agree with the authors final conclusion:

TSP is pretty good as a supplementary retirement plan--but with room for significant improvement of its annuities; and not at all good as a standalone retirement program or even in combination with Social Security at its present level of benefits.

But I can't go along with the idea of increasing SS withholding:

The only logical solution to fill the retirement income vacuum created by private sector employers increasingly substituting since the 1980s 401(k)-type savings and investment plans for secure pensions is to increase Social Security contributions and benefits.

Ronald Reagan already tried that by having us baby boomers prepay our SS benefits and instead of investing it the government spent it. It won't work because if there is any big pot of money around our government will spend it and we're left with the origianal problem unfixed.

 

[cully]

We are in a "Bunny Market". Happy Easter! https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByhQ-GFrf0FVSFgybWFhY24tbGs/view?usp=docslist_api

FundXcellence

 

[FAB1]

if there is any big pot of money around our government will spend it and we're left with the origianal problem unfixed.

Bears repeating, repeating, repeating....