Cruise stocks drop, as Carnival on track to open at 5 1/2-year low

[NewsFeeder]

Cruise stocks drop, as Carnival on track to open at 5 1/2-year low

Shares of cruise operators dropped in premarket trading Monday, as the global spread of COVID-19 triggered worries about how travel will be affected. Shares of Carnival Corp. fell 6.1%, putting them on track to open at the lowest prices seen during the regular-session hours since October 2014. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s stock dropped 5.1% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. declined 6.8%, putting them on track to open at a 13-month low. Meanwhile, futures for the S&P 500 tumbled 2.9%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/3553dfa...c669bed/cruise-stocks-drop,-as.html?.tsrc=rss

 

[Bullitt]

I believe CCL will go bankrupt before this is done. Down 44% in four days.

Seriously, has anyone you know that does cruises ever have a positive experience?

If you bought CCL in 2000, you'd be underwater. That was 20 years ago. Chart below back to 2009.

 

[rangerray]

We’ve been on Carnival about 7 times over the last 20 years and have always had a great experience.


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[Bullitt]

CCL issued a 12% bond yesterday which was oversubscribed. Buyers of the bond are most likely betting on government bailout here.

Stock down and ready to test it's all time low today.

It will take years for this industry to recover consumer confidence.

 

[Rod]

CCL issued a 12% bond yesterday which was oversubscribed. Buyers of the bond are most likely betting on government bailout here.

Stock down and ready to test it's all time low today.

It will take years for this industry to recover consumer confidence.

I heard they don't qualify for a gov. bailout because they are not a US entity. But, who knows what sort of deal might be happening behind the scenes.

 

[Bullitt]

NCLH looks like it's history as the company doesn't see how it can exist in the future.

Heavy institutional selling. Down 22% today. Volume 435% of its 50 day average.

CNBC Feb 12, 2020:

“If you look at Norwegian versus its peers, it’s in the best technical shape. Currently, it’s only down 10% from its recent highs versus its peers, which are down closer to 15%,” he said. “So, we’ve lost less and we’re actually starting to climb back faster. So, I think if we are ready to dip our toe into the water, Norwegian is the cruise liner to buy here.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/norwegian-cruise-line-best-bet-among-cruise-stocks-traders.html

 

[Bullitt]

Bullish case:

Having raised about $2.4 billion of new capital this week, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has enough liquidity to last more than 18 months even with zero revenue, CEO Frank Del Rio told Barron’s.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/no...-cash-for-18-months-of-no-revenue-51588872601

 

[Bullitt]

With cruise season winding down, that also means less people will be flying. Many borders are still closed and have zero incentive to allow mass amounts of travel during Christmas this year. If this was all the airlines and cruise lines could muster, they are in even deeper trouble.

Both airlines and cruise lines are only hanging out for a bailout at this point.

Ricky Sandler's Eminence Capital who said you should mortgage your house to by cruise lines in late March, has sold 80% of his RCL holdings as of 6/30.

 

[Bullitt]

Another bull case for cruise stocks, which are probably the only value besides oil stocks, is that if democrats take over, travel to Cuba will be back on the table. Once these travel fears subside and a vaccine comes out, it would be massively bullish for the travel industry.

 

[Bullitt]

Another blow. Doesn't bode well for cyclical stocks as re-opening in Spring is looking more and more likely.

Typical case of NIMBY.

Big cruise ships will no longer welcome at the southernmost point in the continental U.S.


On Tuesday, voters in Key West passed three ballot initiatives aimed at limiting the impact of visiting cruise ships on everyday island life.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/trav...t-ban-large-cruise-ships-visiting/6171877002/

 

[Bullitt]

Insider sale for $102M in a personal trust. Important to watch this sector for a real recovery, and right now, it's not looking like anything more than a Christmas rally.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/...20002652/xslF345X03/es200116360_4-marison.xml

 

[Bullitt]

CCL very close to taking out previous June and December highs at around the 25 level. Over 25 and it's very much wide open.

I can see the cruise lines opening again with proof of vaccine or negative test to board. It seems there is a large following of cruise vacation fans and that makes it worth watching as government restrictions are gradually lifted.

 

[Bullitt]

While everyone fixates on Tesla, Carnival is starting to run higher. Next stop, 33-34.

 

[Bullitt]

Not Carnival news but bad news from Royal Caribbean (RCL). Come on guys, get the staff vaccinated.

Royal Caribbean Group is postponing a voyage in July after eight crew members tested positive for Covid-19, demonstrating the challenges that arise with restarting cruises during the pandemic.

 

[cmil1212]

Taking a cruise in July on carnival. They changed to vaccination passengers only which is good but they still would have to expect a few positives here and there. It’s free for me plus 3k In credits for casino. Free suite and balcony rooms. And all I can drink. Hard to turn down.

Saw that many canceled after saying they would only take vaccined passengers. No kids under 12. If they do exempt some kids they’ll have to wear face masks. We’re leaving the 7 yr old at relative as I expect his experience to be horrible. Glad I got 15 yr old vaccinated quickly.


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