Cortez's S&P500 account talk

[Cortez]

S&P held above 1490 today and should rally from here in the short term. The S&P needs to establish a higher swing low in the 1520-1510 area after this rally. The S&P will not survive another run at 1490 without the floodgates opening and massive selling erupting.

 

[350zCommTech]

The S&P needs to establish a higher swing low in the 1520-1510 area after this rally. The S&P will not survive another run at 1490 without the floodgates opening and massive selling erupting.

I agree.

 

[Show-me]

You got my vote.

 

[nnuut]

What rally? What happens next, I really don't know, how do you?

 

[Cortez]

What rally? What happens next, I really don't know, how do you?

The "rally" I referred to is one that I presumed had started happening yesterday but fizzled out quickly. If the S&P fails to hold 1490 without a rally, obviously we are likely to have a retest of the AUG lows. However, if we rally from here (1500 presently) back toward but short of exceeding the previous swing high area of 1550, then it is that retracement that needs to find a higher low above the previous 1490 low, hence the 1510 area. The reason I don't expect another challenge (if S&P 1490 doesn't fail before my anticipated rally) to the 1490 to hold is that the more times a support level (or resistance for that matter) is threatened, the greater the likelihood that level will fail. We have broken 1500 5 of the past 12 trading days in the SPX but have closed above 1500 each time. This level is CRUCIAL to being long stock funds.

 

[nnuut]

Thanks for the explaination Cortez!

 

[Cortez]

S&P 500 chart

 

[Cortez]

1 month 1 hour view showing bounce off of support at 1490 that started yesterday afternoon. Short term bullish chart.

 

[fabijo]

1 month 1 hour view showing bounce off of support at 1490 that started yesterday afternoon. Short term bullish chart.

Excellent chart, Cortez. What program did you create that in?

 

[Cortez]

Excellent chart, Cortez. What program did you create that in?

ProphetCharts embedded within my OptionsXpress account.

 

[fabijo]

ProphetCharts embedded within my OptionsXpress account.

Cool. Thanks!

 

[Cortez]

5 day 15 min chart. S&P is testing minor support area of 1505 which was resistance on Monday. Major support is at 1490. Chart is actually SPY tracking fund so add a zero to price to get S&P equivalent.

 

[350zCommTech]

What are your plans for tomorrow?

Thanks.

 

[Cortez]

As long as the 1505 level holds through 11:45 I will remain in the S fund for tomorrow. The market should gain confidence as long as buyers enter into this dip.

 

[Cortez]

1505 failed this morning and we are now looking at yesterday's low of 1500 which has held so far. So Far. I'm really on the fence unless 1505 is regained by deadline time. I may go 50% stock and 50% safe haven.

 

[Cortez]

Staying 100% S fund based on the fact that we have not broken through yesterday's low.

 

[Cortez]

My market outlook has been revised from mildly bullish to neutral-bearish. S&P failed to hold down the support area of 1490. The market has NO strength at this time, hence why the rally from mon afternoon to yesterday's close was so unimpressive.

 

[Cortez]

As you can see from the chart attached, the market using SPY is holding onto 200 day EMA as of 11:15 am. Formation of a doji candle thus far indicative of a stalemate between bulls and bears and is generally considered a reversal signal. Remaining 100% S Fund.

 

[Cortez]

Due to weakness since last post I am going with 50% S and 50% G.

 

[Cortez]

We have rallied all the way back to the upper edge of the downtrend channel from the Oct 31 FED day high. We also are nearing SPY 1490 resistance area (former strong support). I am leaning toward exiting more of my position into a safe haven tomorrow.