clester's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

I think Boehner has a back room deal with BHO on the debt ceiling. The cost to BHO for his backing on Syria.

 

[jkenjohnson]

I think Boehner has a back room deal with BHO on the debt ceiling. The cost to BHO for his backing on Syria.

Interesting thought.

 

[clester]

Finally getting a little pull back. I was expecting a buying opportunity in October and it looks like I may get it. I need RSI to go below 30 on S&P for a good signal. I would like to see a test of the 200 DMA. The S fund is staying stubbornly high. Will it catch up to S&P's decline? I don't see why anyone would buy before the debt ceiling is resolved and thats somewhere between the 17th and 31st probably. Hopefully the 16th.

I have been enjoying my time away from the markets. I needed a break. I've been working on my school stuff. SQL database and Java programming. Its a lot of fun. Funny how you enjoy it more when the pressure is off. My livelihood doesn't depend on it.

Does anyone know how the debt ceiling would effect pension and supplement payments? I know the government shutdown doesn't.

 

[clester]

Finally getting a little pull back. I was expecting a buying opportunity in October and it looks like I may get it. I need RSI to go below 30 on S&P for a good signal. I would like to see a test of the 200 DMA. The S fund is staying stubbornly high. Will it catch up to S&P's decline? I don't see why anyone would buy before the debt ceiling is resolved and thats somewhere between the 17th and 31st probably. Hopefully the 16th.

I have been enjoying my time away from the markets. I needed a break. I've been working on my school stuff. SQL database and Java programming. Its a lot of fun. Funny how you enjoy it more when the pressure is off. My livelihood doesn't depend on it.

Does anyone know how the debt ceiling would effect pension and supplement payments? I know the government shutdown doesn't.

Ok. an update.

I missed another pullback buying opportunity but my signal never quite got to a buy. I was expecting a pull back to test the June lows perhaps or at least to the 200 dma when the RSI indicator would go below 30 and bounce. I'm patient these days. Too risky IMO to flirt with debt ceiling. Perhaps, if we get a big dip if we default I may look to buy.

I am retired and not willing to take big risks anymore so take that into consideration. I do have all my IRA money fully invested though (about 20% of my portfolio) and about 5% cash. TSP makes up about 75%.

I'm not sure where a good place to hide would be if we default. Hope it doesn't happen.

 

[maverick06]

I think the questsion is the "least bad place to hide". I was thinking about that too... typically you run to the G fund and deel the I to be risky, but does this flip and mean the I fund is where to be. I have used my moves for the month, so I am mostly S or can jump to G. I think i will stay where I am, I still cant imagine defaulting on the debt... thats just such an illogical conclusion (of course so was the sequester....).

 

[burrocrat]

I'm not sure where a good place to hide would be if we default. Hope it doesn't happen.

that would be under a rock.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Ok. an update.

I missed another pullback buying opportunity but my signal never quite got to a buy. I was expecting a pull back to test the June lows perhaps or at least to the 200 dma when the RSI indicator would go below 30 and bounce. I'm patient these days. Too risky IMO to flirt with debt ceiling. Perhaps, if we get a big dip if we default I may look to buy.

I am retired and not willing to take big risks anymore so take that into consideration. I do have all my IRA money fully invested though (about 20% of my portfolio) and about 5% cash. TSP makes up about 75%.

I'm not sure where a good place to hide would be if we default. Hope it doesn't happen.

Nice to see you back.

 

[clester]

I've decided to use my system for autotracker purposes so I went 100% S. Be careful. Just thought it would be more helpful to anyone interested and help me compare my actual results. The system has been on buy for a while. If RSI goes over 70 on S fund I will have a warning flag.

 

[maverick06]

so your auto tracker is real money or theoretical money now?

Both are fine, just curious as I do read your posts and like to be factor that into my thoughts.

(mine is real money, lesson learned, dont follow me)

(nah, i just am not good enough to follow, play by gut instinct, not a defined system, at least not yet, too much illogical risk).

 

[jkenjohnson]

I've decided to use my system for autotracker purposes so I went 100% S. Be careful. Just thought it would be more helpful to anyone interested and help me compare my actual results. The system has been on buy for a while. If RSI goes over 70 on S fund I will have a warning flag.

Thanks for the info.

 

[clester]

Maverick,
From here on out the autotracker will show my systems allocation not the real one. I thinks its too high to buy in right now and I wouldn't suggest anyone who is out to buy today unless you have other reasons than my system. Which I hope you do. When I can get aligned with my system I will. I'm still in G. System has been in S for a while and will hold until until I get another sell signal. I got out of sink back in the summer when my Dad died and have never gotten re-sinked like I should have.

Like I said I have my IRA monies in Large Cap Dividend mutual funds which have low fees and I'm buy and hold there. Thats about 20% of my portfolio.

Hope that helps.

 

[maverick06]

Thanks for the clarification, always appreciate the input. I move my money too much, have to think more and act less.... Should have done much better this year and last year (last years returns on auto tracker are just partial year returns). Regardless, they are both positive and above inflation so I am good, but shouldhave been much better....

 

[clester]

Thanks for the clarification, always appreciate the input. I move my money too much, have to think more and act less.... Should have done much better this year and last year (last years returns on auto tracker are just partial year returns). Regardless, they are both positive and above inflation so I am good, but shouldhave been much better....

If you can (to keep your sanity) don't worry about trying to beat others or the market. Your goal should be to make the best decisions for yourself. Everyone is not the same and so has different philosophies about the market. I am retired which causes me to be more conservative than others. Also, its hard to beat anything in a bull market. Its best to just stay in until its over (at least 50%).

My system is still holding S fund. We are getting close to a pull back area. We could go another percent or so to get us to an RSI of 70. When we pull back I am looking at the 50 dma again for support. Its been a very good support for a long time. Be aware though that the price will usually dip below it for a day or 2 before bouncing so be patient if that happens. When the RSI gets to 70 or higher I get a warning and potentially a sell for 50%. It always holds at least 50% in a bull market.

My theory about a big sell off in september to early October didn't play out like I expected. We got a much smaller one than I expected. I expect we could be range bound for 2014 from maybe 1700-1800. Theories are just that..theories. Thats why you need a system.

 

[Sensei]

clester - you changed your avatar!? I always liked the weird magician-type guy that I imagined to be Will Ferrell, but I was never quite sure. Who's the new sideways guy?

 

[clester]

clester - you changed your avatar!? I always liked the weird magician-type guy that I imagined to be Will Ferrell, but I was never quite sure. Who's the new sideways guy?

That was me as Heisenburg from breaking bad. Its my Halloween costume. The show was disturbing while making you consider how intertwined our lives are. If you havent seen it you can watch it on netflix.

 

[clester]

System still on buy but getting close to a sell 50% move. I'm looking for RSI over 70 on S&P. We could get another percent or so to get that to happen.

 

[clester]

System still on buy but getting close to a sell 50% move. I'm looking for RSI over 70 on S&P. We could get another percent or so to get that to happen.

Looking at each fund. The EFA has a 50% sell signal, C fund is getting pretty close (RSI over 70), and S fund still looks OK with a little more possible on the upside except that its building a flat top. I expect that early November could start the pull back but I'm waiting for the signal.

 

[jkenjohnson]

Looking at each fund. The EFA has a 50% sell signal, C fund is getting pretty close (RSI over 70), and S fund still looks OK with a little more possible on the upside except that its building a flat top. I expect that early November could start the pull back but I'm waiting for the signal.

This has been a great month. Wish they were all like this. Nice to see you back posting info.

 

[clester]

got the 50% sell signal on C fund which is the one I use for signals so I'll be selling 50% tomorrow.

 

[clester]

got the 50% sell signal on C fund which is the one I use for signals so I'll be selling 50% tomorrow.

I'm expecting another test of the 50 dma moving average on this pull back. We could go below for a day or two and bounce or we could go on down to test the 200 dma. If the current trend holds then its just the 50 dma.