Chaser's account talk

[Chaser]

Initial post. More later.

 

[Chaser]

My strategy will be using 20 vs. 50 ema crossovers to generate buy/sell signals.

My strategy will be using 20 vs. 50 ema crossovers to generate buy/sell signals.

These occur when two moving averages representing different trends criss-cross. For example, when the short-term average (20 ema) crosses BELOW a long-term one (50 ema), a SELL signal is generated. Conversely, when a short-term crosses ABOVE the long-term, a BUY signal is generated.

Buy/sell signals will be obvious at the cross-over points. Here's an example for the C Fund over the last year using the technical analysis chart option in Yahoo finance:
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5EGSPC&t=1y&q=l&l=on&z=m&p=e20,e50&a=

There were sell signals in late March and early October; buy signals came in late May and early November. The other funds work likewise.

When a sell signal is generated, I will move and divide that portion of my account among the accounts with a current buy status. When the C, S, and I funds have a sell status I will make a move to 100% G. I don't really know what to make of the F fund. It hasn't done much since share prices were established in June, 2003. It will probably be more of a factor in years when the market is down.

We'll see how it goes. Dang, if I had used this strategy in 2005, I would have gotten a 17.07% return instead of 5.30%.

 

[ocean]

My strategy will be using 20 vs. 50 ema crossovers to generate buy/sell signals.

These occur when two moving averages representing different trends criss-cross. For example, when the short-term average (20 ema) crosses BELOW a long-term one (50 ema), a SELL signal is generated. Conversely, when a short-term crosses ABOVE the long-term, a BUY signal is generated.

We'll see how it goes. Dang, if I had used this strategy in 2005, I would have gotten a 17.07% return instead of 5.30%.

Chaser,

I used your method to plug in a few other stocks and EFA using Yahoo financial site in the TA section. It showed exactly (pretty much) what you described here. It's very simple and easy to observe and it is a brilliant idea. Sounds like you just started using this method. Did you coming up with this strategy yourself? I definitely will give it a try myself. Thanks for sharing.

Ocean

 

[Chaser]

One step behind, chasing a volatile market: they zig, I zag.

I got burned last year when stocks dropped last year after New Year's, so I was afraid of the same thing happening this year and had my balance in G and F funds during the stocks rally the first half of January.

After getting tired of watching the rally pass me by, I mistimed the market when I waited until the 2nd day of the big consolidation to switch from G and F bonds to C, S, and I stocks to begin my 20 vs. 50 ema strategy when I missed the noon switch deadline on Tuesday, then moved back into bonds in time to miss the stocks rebound on Thursday. So: I ended up selling low Tuesday, buying high Wednesday, selling low Thursday; I am told this is not the best Wall St. strategy.

Having taken my lumps by mistiming the market, poorer but broke-er, for the rest of 2006 I will only use Buy/Sell signals generated by my 20 vs. 50 ema strategy.

I figure my bad moves this week will negatively impact my return this year by a couple percent or so.

 

[Wheels]

So according to your system, where should we be right now? I'll be watching closely.

Thanks
Dave
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[KAPLOWD]

There are some calculators on this site

http://www.tspmoney.com/

 

[Chaser]

So according to your system, where should we be right now? I'll be watching closely.

Thanks
Dave
<><

My charts show Buys in all funds: C and S funds have been Buys since early November, I fund has been Buy since July and F just became a Buy earlier this month.

I don't consider moving into F unless C, S, and I are all Sells,so my current allocation is 33%C, 33%S, and 34%I.

Bear in mind I just started using the 20 vs. 50 ema strategy this week. Using this slow, steady approach the positive returns don't start showing up until later in the year.

You can see for youself: click on any of the charts at the bottom of this page, select the technical analysis option under "Charts" on the left side of the screen, click 3m for range (so the ema is calculated with days not minutes), under ema select 20 and then 50.

The chart should look like this if you selected the C fund chart:

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=%5EGSPC&t=1y&q=l&l=on&z=m&p=e20,e50&a=

At this point you can show charts with these settings on one page by pasting "agg ^gspc vpsix efa" into the "Get technical chart(s) for:" box.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=e20%2Ce50&a=&c=&s=agg+%5Egspc++vpsix+efa

On the far right side of the charts (the current date) the 20 ema line is above the 50 ema indicating Buys in each of the F, C, S, and I funds.

 

[Chaser]

So far, I like my short term vs. intermediate term method of using 20 ema vs. 50 ema. I am still trying to catch up from my bad moves in January before I changed to my current strategy. The fewer moves I make the less likely I am to make mistakes ("they zig, I zag"). I am going to allocate my funds by pro rating them by performance, so I moved an equal allocation among C, S, and I to 20%C, 40%S, and 40%I and will reevaluate my position quarterly unless I get a sell signal (the 20 ema goes below the 50 ema). I hope to gain some steps that way.The stock funds have been trending upward since the beginning of the year and the S and I funds are outperforming the C fund by approximately a 2 to 1 margin, roughly the same performance since the funds were given share prices in June, 2003. I'll talk again in 3 months unless something changes. Hopefully I will be beating the return of most of the 5 funds by then. My goal is to beat the performance of 4 out of the 5 funds by the end of each year.

 

[Chaser]

Just a slight adjustment to my allocation from 20%C, 40%S, 40%I to 20%C, 30%S, 50%I so that I have 50% S&P and 50% EAFE. This will be effective 4/12/2006, I hope.

 

[Chaser]

I'm sticking with the 20 ema vs. 50 ema strategy I started in January. The C-Fund 20 ema dipped below the 50 ema yesterday and the same thing will happen with the S-Fund by Wednesday I think. The I-Fund 20 ema is above the 50 ema for now. I am inclined to think the 7-month bull market is at the end of its life cycle and we are headed into the doldrums of the summer horse latitudes. It is tempting to give the F-Fund is try, but I've regretted doing that nearly every time I have.


____________________________________________________________
"Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future..."
-Nobel physicist Niels Bohr

 

[cdifrances]

I'm sticking with the 20 ema vs. 50 ema strategy I started in January. The C-Fund 20 ema dipped below the 50 ema yesterday and the same thing will happen with the S-Fund by Wednesday I think. The I-Fund 20 ema is above the 50 ema for now. I am inclined to think the 7-month bull market is at the end of its life cycle and we are headed into the doldrums of the summer horse latitudes. It is tempting to give the F-Fund is try, but I've regretted doing that nearly every time I have.


____________________________________________________________
"Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future..."
-Nobel physicist Niels Bohr

Hi Chaser,
Your strategy sounds very interesting. I got so nervous when I saw my TSP balance plunge over the course of a few days. I lost [Edit] with only 35% distributed between C, S and I with the rest in G, and fled back to 100% in the G Fund. Then I read your post and viewed a few charts of 20 ema vs 50 ema, I guess you're investing in the I Fund as it's the only one which, according to your strategy, would be considered hopeful. I pasted a few of the charts which you suggested, all 3 month charts, into an Excel spreadsheet, following your advice, but the outlook seemed very bleak indeed. The only TSP fund, and I'm not even addressing the L Funds which are merely combinations of the main G, F, C, S, I, which meets your positive criteria, is the I Fund, the S Fund had no three month chart for comparison, only a 1-Day and 5-Day, but the I Fund is very volatile and questionable as it continues to plunge. I'm tempted to buy I Fund. Maybe I will, maybe not. Maybe I'll invest only new allocations.

The reason is this: There's at least a two day lapse between our requests for investment changes and implimentation of those requests, and in such a volatile market, two days could make a huge difference.

I'm still a bit shell-shocked and will remain in the G-Fund for now. But, please tell us how you made out. I wish you the very best. Thanks so much for sharing your advice. I'm going to use it, but, at first, only on a small scale.

Claire

 

[cdifrances]

Re: Chaser's account

Hi Chaser!
Thanks so much for your tips. I was in the doldrums and put 100% in G, but between you and my internal crystal ball, I felt lucky today reallocated new contributions to:
20% C, 40% S, 40% I.
Then moved 20% balance in G Fund to:
4% C, 8% S, 8% I.
They seem to be turning up a bit but I'll keep an eye out. :blink: LOL
What do you think??
Claire