It was another volatile day for stocks Thursday with early gains being sold and late morning lows being bought. The Dow gained 21-points on the day, somewhere in the middle of the +98 high and -94-point low of the day, but it was another negative day for stocks overall so we've had two days in a row of a negative market action and a positive Dow. It seems investors are still looking for a place to put money, rather than outright selling.
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The tech-wreck week continued with the Nasdaq losing another nearly 1%, while social media taking another big hit, and semiconductors being pounded and may be on a beeline for the February lows. Micron is one of the leaders in that sector and if that 42.50 support area can't hold, then look out 37.50.
Before the month is over we'll get the Fed's decision on interest rates after the September 26th FOMC meeting, and there is another potential government shut down looming at the end of the month if funding for the government isn't extended past September 30. So, there are catalysts for a rocky September, but this market has punished those who have not bought the dips so the bears have some work to do or the bulls could take this right back up.
We get the August jobs report today (Friday) and estimates are looking for a gain of 187,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.9%.
The S&P 500 / C-fund was down but once again the bears could not hold the lows as the dip buyers showed up for a fourth straight day and closed the index off the lows. The 20-day EMA held on a closing basis and except for a day in August, that has been the case for the last two months. There is still a lot of room on the downside if this thing wants to test the lower end of the large rising trading channel, but we're still seeing a series higher lows so the trend would have to break at this point to test that area.
Another open gap was filled this week and that leaves two open gaps (red) on the short-term chart. Open gaps are rare on the S&P so it's always possible that the ones below (red) could still be filled.
The small caps (S-fund) were hit hard again and that may be a knee-jerk reaction to the weakness in tech stocks.
And speaking of the weakness in tech, the Nasdaq 100 large cap tech index tested the bottom of its short-term trading channel and held yesterday. It also came quite close to the 50-day EMA, which has also been holding all summer.
The EAFE (I-fund) was down but rallied late and filled, you guessed it, the open gap from mid-August. The support line is leaning down so it's possible that it could test that area below 65.50, but it is also possible that the bottom of the now filled gap will provide support.
The AGG (bonds) was up, filled an open gap, then backed off. The large rising wedge remains a bearish pattern, but now there's a possible bull flag formed so I suppose a move back to the top of the wedge would be possible.
It's that time of year again... time for the annual Last Man Standing NFL Contest. It's free.
The signup deadline is 1PM ET this Sunday. More Information: Last Man Standing Contest
Last Man Standing 2018
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The tech-wreck week continued with the Nasdaq losing another nearly 1%, while social media taking another big hit, and semiconductors being pounded and may be on a beeline for the February lows. Micron is one of the leaders in that sector and if that 42.50 support area can't hold, then look out 37.50.
Before the month is over we'll get the Fed's decision on interest rates after the September 26th FOMC meeting, and there is another potential government shut down looming at the end of the month if funding for the government isn't extended past September 30. So, there are catalysts for a rocky September, but this market has punished those who have not bought the dips so the bears have some work to do or the bulls could take this right back up.
We get the August jobs report today (Friday) and estimates are looking for a gain of 187,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.9%.
The S&P 500 / C-fund was down but once again the bears could not hold the lows as the dip buyers showed up for a fourth straight day and closed the index off the lows. The 20-day EMA held on a closing basis and except for a day in August, that has been the case for the last two months. There is still a lot of room on the downside if this thing wants to test the lower end of the large rising trading channel, but we're still seeing a series higher lows so the trend would have to break at this point to test that area.
Another open gap was filled this week and that leaves two open gaps (red) on the short-term chart. Open gaps are rare on the S&P so it's always possible that the ones below (red) could still be filled.
The small caps (S-fund) were hit hard again and that may be a knee-jerk reaction to the weakness in tech stocks.
And speaking of the weakness in tech, the Nasdaq 100 large cap tech index tested the bottom of its short-term trading channel and held yesterday. It also came quite close to the 50-day EMA, which has also been holding all summer.
The EAFE (I-fund) was down but rallied late and filled, you guessed it, the open gap from mid-August. The support line is leaning down so it's possible that it could test that area below 65.50, but it is also possible that the bottom of the now filled gap will provide support.
The AGG (bonds) was up, filled an open gap, then backed off. The large rising wedge remains a bearish pattern, but now there's a possible bull flag formed so I suppose a move back to the top of the wedge would be possible.
It's that time of year again... time for the annual Last Man Standing NFL Contest. It's free.
The signup deadline is 1PM ET this Sunday. More Information: Last Man Standing Contest
Last Man Standing 2018
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
