10/31/11
Stocks were mixed on Friday after the 500-point rally on Wednesday and Thursday. The Dow gained 23-points and the S&P was up fractionally, but the Nasdaq, Transportation Index, and small caps all closed lower.
For the TSP, the C-fund was up 0.04% on Friday, the S-fund lost 0.22%, the I-fund fell 0.68%, and the F-fund (bonds) gained 0.44%.
For more on the weekly and monthly returns, please see our TSP Weekly Wrap-Up.
The S&P 500 is clearly in a new uptrend, but it is very extended and the angle of incline probably cannot sustain itself for much longer. After the emotional, news driven rally that cut through resistance like a hot knife through butter, we can anticipate at least some sideways action in the coming days, or even a pullback. But as I have been saying, many investors have been left behind and they will likely be eager to jump in on any dip, so I don't expect the pullbacks to be severe. That is unless we get some news to shake things up again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I posted this weekly chart in the Weekly Wrap Up to show what we could be setting up for. In markets, pattern do repeat themselves. It's not always exact, but it would not be far fetched to expect this to play out...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Even if we get a 2007 - 2008 scenario, the market took 8 weeks to go from bottom to peak before rolling over, so I would not be surprised if we see the current market rally into the end of the year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
With the threat of another downgrade to our country's credit rating hanging over our heads, we might expect the market to go down in November, but when the charts look this good, I expect the news to be good because the fundamentals tend to come out in the charts first. That may be putting too much faith in the Super Committee in congress, but that's what the charts are telling us right now.
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 64% bulls, 26% bears for a 2.46 to 1 bulls to bears ratio. That is a sell signal in either a bull or bear market. That means the system will remain 100% G Fund for this week.
This week we have an FOMC meeting with a policy statement announcement on Wednesday, and the October jobs report gets released on Friday morning.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mixed on Friday after the 500-point rally on Wednesday and Thursday. The Dow gained 23-points and the S&P was up fractionally, but the Nasdaq, Transportation Index, and small caps all closed lower.
For the TSP, the C-fund was up 0.04% on Friday, the S-fund lost 0.22%, the I-fund fell 0.68%, and the F-fund (bonds) gained 0.44%.
For more on the weekly and monthly returns, please see our TSP Weekly Wrap-Up.
The S&P 500 is clearly in a new uptrend, but it is very extended and the angle of incline probably cannot sustain itself for much longer. After the emotional, news driven rally that cut through resistance like a hot knife through butter, we can anticipate at least some sideways action in the coming days, or even a pullback. But as I have been saying, many investors have been left behind and they will likely be eager to jump in on any dip, so I don't expect the pullbacks to be severe. That is unless we get some news to shake things up again.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I posted this weekly chart in the Weekly Wrap Up to show what we could be setting up for. In markets, pattern do repeat themselves. It's not always exact, but it would not be far fetched to expect this to play out...
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Even if we get a 2007 - 2008 scenario, the market took 8 weeks to go from bottom to peak before rolling over, so I would not be surprised if we see the current market rally into the end of the year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
With the threat of another downgrade to our country's credit rating hanging over our heads, we might expect the market to go down in November, but when the charts look this good, I expect the news to be good because the fundamentals tend to come out in the charts first. That may be putting too much faith in the Super Committee in congress, but that's what the charts are telling us right now.
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey came in at 64% bulls, 26% bears for a 2.46 to 1 bulls to bears ratio. That is a sell signal in either a bull or bear market. That means the system will remain 100% G Fund for this week.
This week we have an FOMC meeting with a policy statement announcement on Wednesday, and the October jobs report gets released on Friday morning.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
