04/28/26
It was a quiet day of trading on Monday with the indices hanging close to the flat line most of the day, and closing slightly positive. The continued strength keeps the underinvested, and the wannabe dip buyers frustrated. We did see the 18-day winning streak for the Semiconductors end yesterday, even with Nvidia moving to new highs.
Despite the first loss in the Semiconductor Index in weeks, Nvidia gained 4% yesterday and that helped keep the S&P 500 positive on the day. Without it, the index goes negative. That's quite a 2-day move following a small pause.
That move finally gave the stock a new 52-week high as it surpassed last October's peak. This is key since it is such a heavily weighted stock in the C-fund.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) also ticked to a new high and the positive momentum continued. The PMO indicator below shows the recent momentum, and...
... the Slow Stochastics remind us that strong bull markets can stay overbought longer than we think. These relentless overbought readings are usually more of a sign of strength, rather than predictive of a peak, but when they finally give out, be ready. It can be a quick flush lower.
Let's look at 2025 again, since the market was very similar to the current action. Both the PMO and the Slow Stochastic remained strong and overbought for many weeks. I could have stretched this out further where we started to see these fade in late July and we saw a series of quick pullbacks in late summer and early fall.
So these strong rallies do eventually fade, but it always seems to take longer than we think.
The Dow Transportation Index peaked on April 22 after a massive rally off the March low. Since then it has come back hard. Being one of the key market leaders, should we be concerned? We saw a peak in the Transports in late 2024 (middle chart), but the S&P 500 didn't peak for three more months. Also, the recent low in the Transportation Index preceded the low in the S&P 500 by about 2-3 weeks.
The recent pop and drop in the Transports was almost exclusively due to a short squeeze in Avis / Budget (CAR), so I don't know how concerned we should be about this latest move in the Transportation Index.
The price of oil was up a couple of bucks on Monday and the chart continues to fill in the shoulder of the typically bearish head and shoulders pattern.
Magnificent 7 earnings come in hot this week: On Wednesday after the closing bell we get reports from: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN). And on Thursday Apple (AAPL) reports. Could we be seeing a "buy the rumor, sell the news" set up, or is the market just looking for reasons to scream higher?
There is an FOMC meeting this week with a decision on interest rates being announced tomorrow at 2 PM ET. No one expecting a change in rates at this meeting. This will be Jerome Powell's final meeting as the Fed Chair, so perhaps there could be some unpredictable commentary?
We will get the PCE Prices inflation data on Thursday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) continues to hang a round the all-time highs, and above the January peak, so technically it looks fine. The ascending support line broke recently, but that's not too concerning, but if it falls below 2660 I would start wondering if the red gaps would be the next target.
ACWX (I-fund) was down slightly yesterday and continues to get its cues from the price of oil, but also the dollar (UUP) still plays a role.
BND (bonds / F-fund) is holding onto the support of the 50-day moving average, and the bottom of the long wedge formation, which is getting more narrow each day.
Thanks so much for reading! See you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
It was a quiet day of trading on Monday with the indices hanging close to the flat line most of the day, and closing slightly positive. The continued strength keeps the underinvested, and the wannabe dip buyers frustrated. We did see the 18-day winning streak for the Semiconductors end yesterday, even with Nvidia moving to new highs.
| Daily TSP Funds Return More returns |
Despite the first loss in the Semiconductor Index in weeks, Nvidia gained 4% yesterday and that helped keep the S&P 500 positive on the day. Without it, the index goes negative. That's quite a 2-day move following a small pause.
That move finally gave the stock a new 52-week high as it surpassed last October's peak. This is key since it is such a heavily weighted stock in the C-fund.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) also ticked to a new high and the positive momentum continued. The PMO indicator below shows the recent momentum, and...
... the Slow Stochastics remind us that strong bull markets can stay overbought longer than we think. These relentless overbought readings are usually more of a sign of strength, rather than predictive of a peak, but when they finally give out, be ready. It can be a quick flush lower.
Let's look at 2025 again, since the market was very similar to the current action. Both the PMO and the Slow Stochastic remained strong and overbought for many weeks. I could have stretched this out further where we started to see these fade in late July and we saw a series of quick pullbacks in late summer and early fall.
So these strong rallies do eventually fade, but it always seems to take longer than we think.
The Dow Transportation Index peaked on April 22 after a massive rally off the March low. Since then it has come back hard. Being one of the key market leaders, should we be concerned? We saw a peak in the Transports in late 2024 (middle chart), but the S&P 500 didn't peak for three more months. Also, the recent low in the Transportation Index preceded the low in the S&P 500 by about 2-3 weeks.
The recent pop and drop in the Transports was almost exclusively due to a short squeeze in Avis / Budget (CAR), so I don't know how concerned we should be about this latest move in the Transportation Index.
The price of oil was up a couple of bucks on Monday and the chart continues to fill in the shoulder of the typically bearish head and shoulders pattern.
Magnificent 7 earnings come in hot this week: On Wednesday after the closing bell we get reports from: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN). And on Thursday Apple (AAPL) reports. Could we be seeing a "buy the rumor, sell the news" set up, or is the market just looking for reasons to scream higher?
There is an FOMC meeting this week with a decision on interest rates being announced tomorrow at 2 PM ET. No one expecting a change in rates at this meeting. This will be Jerome Powell's final meeting as the Fed Chair, so perhaps there could be some unpredictable commentary?
We will get the PCE Prices inflation data on Thursday.
Additional TSP Fund Charts:
DWCPF (S-fund) continues to hang a round the all-time highs, and above the January peak, so technically it looks fine. The ascending support line broke recently, but that's not too concerning, but if it falls below 2660 I would start wondering if the red gaps would be the next target.
ACWX (I-fund) was down slightly yesterday and continues to get its cues from the price of oil, but also the dollar (UUP) still plays a role.
BND (bonds / F-fund) is holding onto the support of the 50-day moving average, and the bottom of the long wedge formation, which is getting more narrow each day.
Thanks so much for reading! See you tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Updated monthly:
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
